North Carolina faced Arkansas in its last game and won 87-78 as a 5-point favorite. The Tar Heels have now won five of their past six games SU and are 4-2 ATS in those contests. Offensively the team is clicking, shooting 45% or better from the floor in each of its past four games. Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat Oregon 72-65 as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Badgers have won eight straight games SU and have been excellent offensively as well, scoring 72.0 PPG over the course of the winning streak. These two teams have met just once in the past five seasons and the Tar Heels won that game 60-57 as 6.5-point home favorites on Nov. 30, 2011. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS after a non-conference game this season. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 21-10 ATS after a non-conference game over the past two seasons and 18-9 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games in that time. The Badgers are also 8-0 SU (4-4 ATS) when playing on a neutral court this season. F Kennedy Meeks (Knee) is questionable for this game for the Tar Heels, who are already without Fs Desmond Hubert (Knee) and Sasha Seymore (Knee) for the season. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is doubtful for Wisconsin, but he is also the only player dealing with an injury for the team.
Can the Tar Heels upset the Badgers to advance to the Elite 8 Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. StatFox Zach is on a 56% ATS (32-25) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 55% ATS mark (52-43) this season. StatFox Brian is a strong 59% ATS (19-13) in Best Bets since Feb. 6 to put him at 55% ATS (52-42-1) this season, while StatFox Gary has a 55% ATS (52-43) record for the season.
North Carolina has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation this season, scoring 77.9 PPG (17th in NCAA) on an outstanding 47.5% shooting (27th in NCAA). This team knows how to move the ball (17.7 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and also rebounds very well (41.0 RPG, 2nd in NCAA). The Tar Heels do, however, allow a rather poor 68.6 PPG (239th in NCAA) but a lot of that can be attributed to their preferred pace. F Kennedy Meeks (11.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will need to be healthy if this team is going to advance. Meeks is a talented scorer around the basket and his strength would give Frank Kaminsky a lot of issues on Thursday. If he doesn’t play then his teammates will really need to step it up on the glass. F Brice Johnson (12.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) would be the player that is asked to play a bigger role in the rebounding department. Johnson had 13 rebounds and two blocks before fouling out against Arkansas last game. He is very active around the basket on both ends and must stay out of foul trouble in this game, as he can’t foul out if Meeks is going to sit or be less than 100%. G Marcus Paige (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG) played one of his better games of the season against the Razorbacks, finishing with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals in 29 minutes of action. Paige got hot from three (3-for-6 3PT) and will need to find a way to find success against a Wisconsin team that knows how to slow the pace of games down. The Badgers did, however, allow Joseph Young to score 30 points last game and that proves that the team can have trouble with quicker guards that can shoot from the outside. F J.P Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to stuff the stat sheet for the Tar Heels. He had 13 points, eight assists, five boards and two steals in 26 minutes last game. He’ll need to play a solid game defensively against either Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes Thursday. G Justin Jackson (10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) could really help this team with a solid scoring performance. He is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far and that type of game would give the team a real chance at upsetting Wisconsin.
Wisconsin has run one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The Badgers are also allowing just 56.8 PPG (10th in NCAA), but they prefer to play at a very slow pace and aren’t as good defensively as that number suggests. They can have trouble stopping guards that penetrate the lane and will need to make sure they keep Marcus Paige in line Thursday. C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 BPG) is averaging 21.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in two games this tournament. He had 16 points and seven boards against Oregon last game, but didn’t play the way he is capable of in that contest. He will really need to make his presence felt inside against North Carolina in this game, especially if Kennedy Meeks is to sit out. F Sam Dekker (13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has really had an incredible tournament for Wisconsin so far, averaging 18.5 PPG in 34.0 MPG. Dekker went 7-for-16 from the outside in the first two tourney games for the Badgers and has made timely buckets late in games. He is extremely athletic and active around the rim on offense and has been playing solid defensively as well. He’ll need to be ready to perform at a high level once again, as teams are putting more and more emphasis on stopping Kaminsky. F Nigel Hayes (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.1 APG) has also played very well both inside and outside for Wisconsin. Hayes comes to play every single night and is averaging 17.3 PPG over the past four contests. He is extremely strong once he gets two feet in the paint and he can also knock down jumpers as well as any guard on this team. If he is playing well then there will be less pressure on his teammates to score. G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) had 12 points in 28 minutes against Oregon. Koenig is an excellent outside shooter (41% 3PT) and can also run this offense to perfection despite his low assist numbers. He’ll need to hold his own against Marcus Paige on Thursday and if his previous performances in big games are any indication then he is certainly capable of doing so.
FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
