Coach Steve Fisher leads his San Diego State Aztecs to the field of 68 for the sixth straight year, as they look to build on their Sweet 16 success from last season. They face Coach Steve Lavin’s Red Storm squad, returning to the NCAA tournament for the first time since being a No. 6 seed in 2011. Lavin is still looking for his first tournament win as St. John’s head coach. The Aztecs have never made it farther than the round of 16 in school history, but will look to do so this season with another matchup that seems to be working in their favor: a St. John’s team without imposing C Chris Obekpa (5.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.1 BPG – 5th in NCAA) who’s been suspended for two weeks for a positive drug test. Obekpa’s season will be over unless St. John’s can make a run to the Final Four. St. John’s is 1-1 SU (0-2 ATS) without Obekpa this season: An 86-78 home win over DePaul on Feb. 11, and more recently, a 105-68 drubbing at the hands of Villanova in Philadelphia on Mar. 7. Obekpa returned for the Red Storm’s quarterfinal loss in the Big East tournament to Providence. St. John’s hasn’t played since Mar. 12, and hasn’t won a game since Mar. 4th. The Red Storm, however, are 14-3 SU (10-6 ATS) with 3+ days rest this season. San Diego State is 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) in its past 10 games, as it won the regular season Mountain West conference title only to lose in the MWC championship game to Wyoming on Mar. 14, 45-43. The Aztecs are 4-2 SU (4-2 ATS) in neutral site games this season and 12-4 SU (4-11 ATS) with 3+ days rest. San Diego State is 3-5 SU (3-5 ATS) versus NCAA tournament teams with non-conference wins over Utah and BYU (and losses to Cincinnati and Arizona). St. John’s is 5-8 SU (4-7-2 ATS) versus NCAA Tournament teams, including 0-2 SU (0-1-1 ATS) non-conference (versus Gonzaga and Duke). St. John’s swept Providence and Xavier in the Big East regular season (but then lost to Providence in the conference tournament, as mentioned earlier). Conversely, the Red Storm were swept by Villanova and Butler in conference play.
The bad news for St. John’s is the obvious: No Obekpa. The good news is that they’re playing an opponent whose putrid offense doesn’t need the deterrent of a shot blocker to keep the ball from going in the hoop. St. John’s now just needs to find a way to score against the Aztecs, who have the No. 2 scoring defense in the country. This theme doesn’t bode well for the Red Storm as they were 0-4 against the Big East’s two best defensive squads (Villanova, Butler). Only two of St. John’s 21 wins this season are when they’ve scored less than 60 points per game, and this figures to be a low scoring affair. That said, nobody in the Mountain West has the perimeter firepower that St. John’s boasts, contributing to solid offensive numbers (71.2 PPG, 78th in NCAA). To hit their season average against the stingy Aztec defense, they’re going to have to be dialed in from three, as the Aztecs don’t beat themselves with fouls. The onus to step up from downtown will fall on G D’Angelo Harrison (17.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2 3PT/game) in what could be his last collegiate game. Harrison had a season-high 33 points (6-8 3PT) in the Red Storm’s only win without Obekpa on the floor. That said, F Sir’Dominic Pointer (13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 1.9 SPG) may be the most important Red Storm player on the floor Friday, as he’s the only plus defender left on a St. John’s team that really struggled on that end of the floor in conference play. G Rysheed Jordan (14.3 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) has been stellar as of late (19 PPG over his past four games) and aids in St. John’s gaudy steal averages (7.5 SPG, 45th in NCAA). G Phil Greene IV (13.2 PPG, 39% 3PT – 1.9 threes/game) is the third senior in the Red Storm’s starting unit and will look to keep his hot shooting (13-for-25 3PT) in his past four games going to help his team advance.
As mentioned earlier, this is a dream matchup for San Diego State, playing a team with a sub-par defense sans its extraordinary shot blocker. To be fair, the Aztecs might have trouble scoring 75 points in an empty gym (61.8 PPG, 308th in NCAA; 62.9% FT, 337th in NCAA). The Aztecs smothering defensive style contributes to their low pace of play (61.3 possessions per game, 336th in NCAA) but they’re in no hurry to score, either. Boding well for the Aztecs is that they’re no stranger to holding their opponents under 60 points, as they’ve done so in eight of their past 10 contests. Of course, San Diego State has also failed to score more than 50 points in three of its past 12 games (as it did in the MWC conference finals versus Wyoming). The two shortcuts that the Red Storm would have around scoring in the half court (free throws, steals creating easy baskets) are negated by the fact that the Aztecs don’t foul (14.3 FPG, 6th in NCAA) and are solid at protecting the ball (5.4 steals against, 65th in NCAA). San Diego State is led in scoring by F Winston Shepard (11.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.9 APG) and G Aqeel Quinn (11.1 PPG, 37% 3PT, 1.7 threes/game). Quinn is the Aztecs’ sole outside threat as his success (and failure) usually looms large in the outcome (Quinn is 1-for-19 3PT in the Aztecs’ past four losses). Quinn was 0-for-5 from three and did not score in San Diego State’s conference finals loss to Wyoming. Shepard is one of Fisher’s most decorated recruits ever in his San Diego State tenure and now, in his junior season, has finally had the breakout season most expected of him. His offense still comes and goes, but Shepard had put together six straight double-figure outings before being stymied by Wyoming for six points in the conference final. F J.J. O’Brien (10.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.5 APG) is a high-IQ forward who does lots of the little things to help Fisher’s Aztecs. Also inconsistent with his offense, O’Brien has alternated single and double-digit scoring games in his last 12 games. F Malik Pope (5.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG) and F Skylar Spencer (2.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) are long and active on defense, and Pope has shown flashes on offense. The best storyline comes in the form of F Dwayne Polee (7.6 PPG) who started his career at St. John’s, recruited by Steve Lavin.
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