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Red-hot Pelicans host struggling Bucks Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 3/17/2015  at  8:56:00 AM
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MILWAUKEE BUCKS (34-32)

at NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (36-30)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A, Total: N/A

Two clubs moving in opposite directions face-off this Tuesday night as the struggling Milwaukee Bucks visit the scorching hot New Orleans Pelicans.

The Bucks have certainly fallen onto hard times of late with a 4-9 SU and ATS record since the All-Star break. In that time their offense has been nearly non-existent as they have hit triple-digits just three times behind a meager 91.0 PPG. Memphis was the latest team to get an easy matchup against this Milwaukee team as the Bucks were getting seven points on the road and couldn’t handle their opponent in a 96-83 loss. They made just 41.7% of their shots in the defeat and let the Grizzlies nail 47.4% of their shots while also getting 10 steals. It has been a completely different story for New Orleans since the All-Star break as they are 9-4 SU (8-5 ATS) and have been on fire offensively over the past three games with 112.0 PPG. In two of those contests they shot better than 51% as a team and have hit that mark a total of five times in their recent hot stretch. They couldn’t keep their momentum going when they hosted Denver on Sunday though, and lost 118-111 despite being favored by eight points. The Nuggets had just 11 turnovers in the double overtime game and won with an efficient 16-for-20 mark at the free-throw line. The road hasn’t been great to Milwaukee this year as the team is 16-20 SU, but has been able to keep things close and is a solid 24-12 ATS as it goes up against a Pelicans team which is 22-12 SU (19-14-1 ATS) when in front of their fans. The first game of this season series between these clubs was just last Monday and New Orleans went on the road and managed a solid 114-103 victory as 1.5-point favorites. Each team caught fire offensively but it was the Pelicans’ amazing 58.7% shooting, including 9-of-15 from behind the arc, which eventually drowned the Bucks. It really hasn’t been much of a contest for this New Orleans group when facing Milwaukee as it is 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) in the series since the start of the 2010-11 season and has not lost at home in the matchup since March 21st, 2003 (12 games). Trends show that Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS (91%) after two or more consecutive losses this year while the Pelicans are a solid 11-4 ATS (73%) when coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in this campaign. Part of the Bucks’ struggles have come from injuries as both SF Jared Dudley (Back) and SG O.J. Mayo (Hamstring) are expected to miss this game as PG Michael Carter-Williams (Ankle) and Jerryd Bayless (Ankle) are listed as questionable. Both PF Ryan Anderson (Knee) and PG Jrue Holiday (Ankle) will be absent for New Orleans as well.

Can the Pelicans stay hot with a home win against the Bucks Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (174-144-2) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 62% ATS (101-62-4) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Gary who has a stellar 61% ATS (31-20-1) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 58% ATS (57-42-1) this season. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 63% ATS record (37-22-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 57% ATS (56-43-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian has a lofty 61% ATS (17-11-1) mark in Best Bets since Feb. 4, and is now 57% ATS (56-43-1) in season Best Bets. StatFox Zach is a robust 65% ATS (34-18-1) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is a scorching 68% ATS (23-11) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28.

The Bucks really don’t have an offense worth getting excited over as they are scoring 97.6 PPG (9th-worst in league) behind 45.9% shooting (7th in league). Where they earn most of their victories is on the defensive side of the ball as they are giving up just 96.8 PPG (5th in league) with opponents making 43.5% of their shots (5th in league). SG Khris Middleton (12.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG) has carried this team offensively in recent games and has scored 22.4 PPG (49% FG) in the past five contests while making 59% of his three-pointers in that time. One of those performances was against this Pelicans team where he scored 17 points and added little elsewhere. SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (12.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 1.0 SPG) has also been solid recently with 17.8 PPG over his past four outings and saved his best for his last meeting with New Orleans when he dropped 29 points on 11-of-16 shooting and completed the stat line with five rebounds, four assists, three blocks and three steals. PG Michael Carter-Williams (14.9 PPG, 7.1 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG) is dealing with some injuries but indications are that he plays on Tuesday and it will be important that he does since he has put up 25+ points in two of his past three games played. He did so against this Pelicans team, scoring 25 points and adding seven assists with two steals in a losing effort.

New Orleans generally has sat towards the middle of the pack in most statistical categories this year, and its scoring offense (99.9 PPG) has been no different as it hits on 45.8% of its shots (9th in league). The Pelicans have been getting better on defense, though, and on the year are allowing 99.3 PPG (13th in league) with opponents shooting 45.8% from the field (7th-worst in league). PF Anthony Davis (24.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 2.9 BPG, 1.4 SPG) has been a one-man wrecking crew recently with double-doubles in five of his past six games as he averages 30.8 PPG (55% FG), 11.2 RPG and 5.0 BPG over that period. He absolutely destroyed the Bucks last Monday for 43 points on 17-of-23 shooting as he added 10 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal. SG Tyreke Evans (16.9 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG) missed one game with an ankle injury and returned on Sunday to put up a near triple-double (25 points, 10 assists, 9 rebounds) in the loss to Denver. He didn’t need to do much against Milwaukee in the win last week, going an efficient 6-for-10 from the field with 13 points and six assists. SG Eric Gordon (13.4 PPG, 3.9 APG) has scored exactly 16 points in each of his past four performances and has shot an impressive 49% from three-point range in that time. His 16 points to go with two steals certainly helped the Pelicans to a win against the Bucks in their last meeting.


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