Arnold Palmer Invitational

Odds to Win Tournament

The PGA concludes its “Florida Swing” with a visit to the king of golf’s favorite course at Bay Hill this week. The par-72, 7,381-yard course has hosted this event for the tour since 1979 and has had big names such as Palmer, Trevino, Irwin, Stewart, Couples, Mickelson, Els and Woods hold the trophy at Sunday in the past. The course has been much harder to navigate in recent years with the average winning score being just over 10-under par in the past eight installments of the event with 13-under being the mark in each of the past three seasons. It was Matt Every who was able to grab his first career PGA victory here last year when he surpassed the likes of Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley and Jason Kokrak on the final day with a score of 70. One of the big stories of the week will be the addition of world No.1 Rory McIlroy to the field as he competes in this tournament for the first time and is joined by the rest of the top-five with Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott and Jason Day all teeing it up. The strong field continues as 10 other players from the top-30 of the Official World Golf Ranking come out to play as last week’s winner, Jordan Spieth, sits this one out. One player that will not be hitting the course is Tiger Woods who has dominated here in the past, winning eight times in his career and four times in the last seven years. Let’s take a look at who can go out this week and hold his own at Arnold Palmer’s favorite course.

Henrik Stenson: Stenson takes up residency not too far from this course and has seemed at home here in each of the past three years; getting a top-15 finish each time and improving his standing in each successive visit. Last year was his best showing as he shot under 70 on three of the days and finished in a tie for fifth with a score of nine-under par behind better than 80% of GIR and fairways hit. The No. 3 player in the world is coming off consecutive fourth-place finishes in each of the past two weeks at very tough courses as he’s gained 1.13 strokes gained putting so far in three PGA events and should use that momentum to catapult him up the leaderboards come Sunday.

Keegan Bradley: Bradley has seen his game struggle somewhat due to changing his putting style from the anchored putter to the more standard grip, but has still made 6-of-7 cuts and has two top-25’s. He should improve with his short game as the season progresses and there is no better place than Bay Hill for him to do that as he placed third here in 2013 and then was the runner-up last year. He shot 11-under on the par-5s in 2014 and netted two rounds of 67 or better before shooting an even 72 on Sunday. While his putting has suffered (-0.21 strokes gained putting, 140th on tour), he still ranks in the top-15 in both driving distance (302.0 yards per, 15th on tour) and strokes gained tee-to-green (1.12, 12th on tour). Look for Bradley to get back on track this week and put up some nice numbers.

Ian Poulter: Poulter has flirted with the winner’s circle recently and despite being one of the best players in the world, has just one win on the PGA tour in stroke play. At certain points in both the Honda Classic and Valspar Championship, Poulter looked poised to grab the lead and run with it, but had trouble each time as he finished third and 24th respectively. The Englishmen has enjoyed his time at Bay Hill, doing no worse than 21st over his last four visits with a third-place back in 2012 being his best showing as he managed a score of six-under. Poulter is fantastic around the greens, and if he can avoid the little mistakes that cost him strokes he should easily net a top-10 finish.

Erik Compton: Compton may be a tough pick to swallow as the 35-year-old has failed to make the cut in each of the past five events, but he has a top-16 finish here in each of the past two seasons, including a standing of fifth last year, and has too much talent to continue at this pace. His two showings at this event are among 11 total top-25 finishes he’s carded since the start of the 2013 campaign, so he surely enjoys this course, and his solid putting (0.35 strokes gained putting, 56th on tour) should give him an outside shot at his first career victory.

S.J. Park: Park is one of many rookies on the tour that has had success in their inaugural PGA season and he’s made 7-of-11 cuts thus far on the year; including finishing second at the Humana Challenge with four straight days of 68 or better. He should also be feeling some confidence after a 69 on Sunday at the Valspar Championship, a mark that brought him up to a tie for 30th on a tough course. Park has an accurate driver (65.6%, 40th on tour) while being great around the green, ranking fifth on tour in scrambling (69%) and sixth in sand save percentage (69.5%), all important attributes on a course such as this one. The rookie is a risky selection, but is worth dropping a unit on if you want a deep sleeper.