Moody Coliseum – Dallas, TX
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

AAC conference supremacy comes down to one game as Tulsa visits No. 22 SMU with a regular season conference title up for grabs.

It’s only fitting that the two top AAC teams, SMU and Tulsa (both 14-3 in conference play), duke it out for the regular season crown (and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament) on Sunday afternoon. These two squads met once already, Feb. 7 on Tulsa’s home floor, as then No. 23 SMU smothered the home squad on defense (28% FG for Tulsa) en route to a 68-57 win. Tulsa has been an outstanding road team in conference play (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) although its lone road loss was a stomping (70-45) at the hands of Connecticut. The Golden Hurricane are coming off a disheartening 56-47 loss at home on Wednesday to Cincinnati, a game where Tulsa was a 3-point favorite. The Golden Hurricane already knew before playing the Bearcats that the game against SMU would decide the conference title, but given Tulsa’s at-large NCAA standing is no sure thing, so that loss could end up being devastating to their postseason chances. SMU dropped a golden opportunity to wrap up the American Athletic Conference regular season crown when it lost at Connecticut on Sunday, 81-73. The Mustangs had won five straight before that loss. SMU has been dominant at home in conference play (7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS), with its lone home loss to Cincinnati on Feb. 5, 62-54. SMU’s home success has extended beyond conference play as it is 13-1 SU in its past 14. Five of SMU’s past six games have had the total go Over. Meanwhile, Tulsa has had great success recently in SMU’s gym, as it is an astounding 8-0 SU (7-1 ATS) when playing in Dallas (Tulsa was a favorite in four of those contests). The road team has generally dominated this series, with SMU winning the past four contests in Oklahoma. Tulsa has no injuries while SMU will be without ineligible G Keith Frazier (10.5 PPG) as it has been for the past 12 games (SMU 10-2 without Frazier).

Can Tulsa clinch a regular season conference title and improve its chances of making the NCAA tournament with a win at SMU Sunday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Feb. 6, combining for a 55% ATS mark (55-45) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Brian is a robust 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets during this timeframe to put him at 57% ATS (47-35-1) this season. StatFox Gary is a strong 56% ATS (30-24) since Dec. 23 to improve to 57% ATS (48-36) for the season, while StatFox Zach is on a 60% ATS (27-18) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (47-36) this season. StatFox Dave is a strong 58% ATS (11-8) since Feb. 6, and StatFox Scott is a profitable 54% ATS (28-24-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

When Tulsa has lost this year, it’s been a recurring theme of not being able to get easy baskets. The Golden Hurricane play four guards (sometimes even five) regularly together on the court: 5-foot-10 G Rashad Ray (7.7 PPG, 3.0 APG); 6-foot-3 G James Woodard (14.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 3PT); 6-foot-4 G Shaquille Harrison (13.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.9 SPG) and 6-foot-3 Marquel Curtis (7.1 PPG). The Golden Hurricane are a quickness matchup nightmare for most teams, but as you’d expect, have trouble finishing against bigger teams with length. While not an explosive offensive team (no AAC team ranks in the top 110 in the nation in points per game) Tulsa is middle-of-the-pack in-conference (65.3 PPG, 4th in AAC, 229th in NCAA). The Golden Hurricane try to run in transition after misses, therefore to not be forced into scoring over length in a half court set (16.6% initial FGA within 0-10 seconds after a rebound, 12th in NCAA). When Tulsa is forced into a slower game, the team will do what it can to have slashing guards Harrison and Woodard (2nd and 9th respectively FTA in-conference) manufacture points at the free throw line (SMU- 673 FTA, 1st in AAC, 71st in NCAA). Woodard and Harrison combined to go just 8-for-28 from the field in the first loss to SMU and that will have to change if they want a chance at victory. The Golden Hurricane forwards are underwhelming as a group, as F Rashad Smith (8.8 PPG) and F D’Andre Wright (7.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG have both seen their production dwindle each of the past three seasons. F Brandon Swannegan (3.8 PPG, 1.5 BPG) is an x-factor for Tulsa, capable of random big scoring games and with the ability to protect the rim with his length. He could go for 16 points and three blocks (as he did versus East Carolina on Feb. 22) or he could give you zeroes almost everywhere in just 10 minutes (as he did versus Memphis on Feb. 28). Again, the key factor for Tulsa will be how it combats length, as losses against Cincinnati and SMU will show that the Golden Hurricane can’t survive when living just off of threes and free throws (Tulsa made less than 10 two-point FG in both losses).

SMU is in the driver’s seat for a regular-season title. They match up extremely well with Tulsa, given their length inside and smothering overall defense (59.7 PPG allowed, 2nd in AAC, 24th in NCAA; 38.3% FG against, 1st in AAC, 14th in NCAA). If there’s a silver lining for SMU’s opponent, it can be found in watching the game tape of SMU’s most recent loss to Connecticut, one where the Huskies shot 53% from the field and their guards (Rodney Purvis, Ryan Boatright and Daniel Hamilton) combined for 67 points and went 18-for-20 from the free throw line. You can bet that Head Coach Larry Brown will have his defense prepared after that lackluster effort on Sunday with a full week of rest (on 3+ days rest, SMU is 11-1 SU this season). G Nic Moore (14.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) is the heart of this Mustang team, and he was the best player on the floor in the first matchup of these two schools (23 points, 7 assists, 7-12 FG). C Yanick Moreira (11.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG) also came up big with a double-double versus Tulsa (13 points, 13 rebounds). Moreira has been great at staying out of foul trouble lately (three fouls or less in eight straight games), which should prove troublesome for the smaller Tulsa defenders. F Markus Kennedy (10.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG) isn’t the dominant force he was last season, in what’s been a difficult year due to eligibility concerns in the non-conference season. However, he did post 18 points and nine rebounds in SMU’s loss to Connecticut on Sunday. Gs Sterling Brown (5.2 PPG) and Ryan Manuel (6.6 PPG) have both done great jobs stepping up to larger roles since the Mustangs lost the aforementioned Frazier due to suspension. Brown and Manuel are averaging 8.4 and 8.3 points per game respectively in their last 12 games (most of them with both in the starting lineup). F Cannen Cunningham (6.1 PPG) and F Ben Moore (7.2 PPG, 5 RPG) are also capable of busting out for big games in limited minutes and causing problems with their length, as Cunningham’s 16-point, 3-block game against Tulsa will show.