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Heat face red-hot Pelicans Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 2/27/2015  at  9:32:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (25-31)

at NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (30-27)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -1.0, Total: 195

The New Orleans Pelicans hope to continue a recent three-game winning streak when they host the Miami Heat on Friday night.

Miami has taken hit after hit this year with injuries, but it comes into this contest with a solid run of four SU victories in its past six games (2-3-1 ATS) as each win came while being the favorite. The teams that they beat are some of the bottom-feeders in the NBA, though, with two of them coming against New York followed by Philadelphia and Orlando. In the most recent contest against the Magic they just barely edged out a 93-90 win as three-point favorites on the road despite shooting a putrid 38.1% from the floor. In the end it came down to who could protect the ball better as the Heat gave up the rock 12 times compared to forcing Orlando into 18 turnovers. The Pelicans have also been hit by the injury bug this year but have come out of the All-Star break with wins in three of the past four games both SU and ATS. They were considered the underdog in each of the games as they won by an average of 7.7 PPG and shot better than 51% as a team in each of the last two outings. Brooklyn was their latest victim when they traveled to the “Big Easy” and took a 102-96 defeat while giving 2.5 points to the home team. New Orleans overcame its 20 turnovers with some impressive shooting (51.4% FG) and was a solid 11-for-25 from long range. Miami has played to a similar level both on the road and at home as they have gone 15-15 SU (15-12-3 ATS) in away games, but its opponent is a solid 19-10 SU (17-11-1 ATS) in front of its fans. The last meeting between the clubs was just a few days ago, last Saturday to be exact, and it was part of the Pelicans three-game winning streak they are currently riding as they defeated the Heat by a score of 105-91 as 2.5-point underdogs on the road. It was a great win for New Orleans since they had both PFs Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson go down with injuries early on and pulled together while forcing Miami into 17 turnovers. Historically, the Pelicans (formally the Hornets) have performed great against this opponent at home, compiling a 22-6 SU and ATS record since 1996 and won the last time here 105-95 while getting five points. Trends show us that Miami is 212-171 ATS (55%) in road games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread since 1996 as they are a mere 5-16 ATS (24%) after one or more consecutive wins this year. There are a multitude of injuries that will factor into the outcome of this contest as SF Luol Deng (Head) is probable and PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) is slated to miss the remainder of the season for the Heat. It isn’t much better for New Orleans with PF Anthony Davis (Shoulder), PF Ryan Anderson (Knee) and PG Jrue Holiday (Ankle) all out for this matchup.

Can the Pelicans stay hot with a victory over the Heat on Friday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (154-126-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 67% ATS (65-32) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Brian who has a stellar 75% ATS (15-5) mark in Best Bets during this timeframe, and is now 60% ATS (53-36) in season Best Bets. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 67% ATS record (32-16) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 58% ATS (51-37) for the season. StatFox Gary is also hot with a 61% ATS (25-16) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 57% ATS (50-38) this season. StatFox Zach is a robust 67% ATS (28-14) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is red-hot 65% ATS (15-8) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28.

The Heat play a very slow-paced game and are putting up a mere 93.5 PPG (3rd-worst in league) behind some solid shooting (45.5% FG, 11th in league). The slow pace has not allowed their opponents many chances to score as they are netting 96.7 PPG (4th in league) on 45.6% shooting (7th-worst in league). SG Dwyane Wade (20.9 PPG, 5.2 APG, 1.1 SPG) returned from a seven-game hiatus due to injury after the All-Star break and has scored 16.8 PPG (39% FG) since coming back. He took 23 shots against New Orleans last week, making just eight (35% FG) as he totaled 19 points with four rebounds and four assists. PG Goran Dragic (16.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.0 SPG) was a big addition for this Miami squad but seems to still be looking for his footing after a poor performance (8 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds) against the Magic. The Pelicans were the first team he faced with his new club as he went for 12 points and three rebounds. C Hassan Whiteside (10.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is proving that he is the real deal with double-doubles in four of his last five games in which he averaged 13.4 PPG (55% FG), 13.2 RPG and 2.0 BPG. He was phenomenal against New Orleans on Saturday with 11 points, 16 rebounds and five blocks.

New Orleans sits right in the middle of the pack in nearly all stats as they are scoring 99.7 PPG (18th in league) on 45.4% shooting (14th in league). It is a similar story on the other side of the ball as they are giving up 99.4 PPG (16th in league) behind 45.9% shooting (5th-worst in league). SG Tyreke Evans (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG) will need to carry this team over the next few weeks and has posted three double-doubles in the last four games as he shot a disappointing 18-of-53 (34% FG). He struggled against Miami with 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting and added six assists with three steals. SG Eric Gordon (12.7 PPG, 3.9 APG) is coming off a poor performance against the Nets as he made a meager 2-of-11 attempts for eight points as he added six rebounds and four assists. He was the main piece in defeating the Heat in their last meeting as he totaled 24 points, six assists and four rebounds. PG Norris Cole (6.7 PPG, 3.5 APG) was a much needed addition with Holiday out and has averaged 12.7 PPG with 4.0 APG over three contests with his new club. He opened this new chapter in his career with 12 points, six rebounds and a steal in the win over Miami.


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