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No. 1 Kentucky faces Tennessee Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 2/17/2015  at  12:28:00 PM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (25-0)

at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (14-10)

Thompson-Boling Arena – Knoxville, TN
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -14.0

No. 1 Kentucky looks to stay perfect with a win in Knoxville over Tennessee Tuesday.

No. 1 Kentucky is coming off of a dominant home performance over South Carolina, winning 77-43 as an 18.5-point favorite. The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to 23.6% shooting in that game and they needed it as they had been slipping lately, allowing their previous two opponents to shoot over 45%. Tennessee, meanwhile, lost 73-55 as a 2.5-point favorite at home against LSU on Saturday and the team has now lost three of its past four games SU. Offensively, the Volunteers have shot under 40% from the field in two of their past three games and they’ve also allowed opponents to shoot at least 49% from the field in each of their past four games on the defensive end. These issues must be patched up or they will get blown out by the Wildcats. Kentucky has dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, winning-and-covering 74-66 in Kentucky a year ago and also winning seven of the past eight games SU. The Wildcats have covered in five of those eight games, but the Volunteers did win-and-cover the last time they played Kentucky in Thompson-Boling Arena. Tennessee is 9-4 SU at home this season, but the team is a miserable 2-11 ATS in those games. The Vols are, however, 7-5 ATS versus SEC opponents and 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Wildcats are undefeated SU this season, but they have struggled ATS with just 12 covers in their 25 games. They are also just 4-8 ATS versus SEC opponents. F Alex Poythress (Knee) is out for the season for Kentucky and Tennessee is without F Jabari McGhee (Foot) indefinitely and Gs Braxton Bonds (Eligibility) and Ian Chiles (Shoudler) for the season.

Can Tennessee spoil Kentucky’s perfect season on Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 57% ATS mark (112-85-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 63% ATS (25-15) during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (43-27) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (22-13-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 57% ATS (39-30-1) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 59% ATS (19-13) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 56% ATS mark (39-31) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (23-16-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23, and StatFox Dave is 5-1 ATS since Feb. 6.

The Wildcats offense has been great this season, averaging 73.6 PPG (44th in NCAA) on 46.3% shooting (59th in NCAA). The team is averaging 15.2 APG (34th in NCAA) and 38.6 RPG (21st in NCAA), but where it wins games is on the defensive end. Kentucky is allowing just 51.8 PPG (2nd in NCAA) thanks to 7.0 BPG (2nd in NCAA). F Karl-Anthony Towns (9.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG) and C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG) are two of the best two-way players in the country. Towns has come on strong offensively lately for this team. He had just nine points in the blowout victory over South Carolina, but he had scored 12+ points in each of the previous four Kentucky games. He is a smooth scorer with a solid jumper and he protects the rim with the best of them. Cauley-Stein is also a dominant rim protector and was huge in the Wildcats’ victory over LSU just two games ago. He had 15 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in that game and followed it up with 14 points and seven boards against South Carolina. He’ll need to provide the same energy against Tennessee on Tuesday. G Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG) continues his up-and-down season, scoring 11 points against South Carolina after a two-point performance against LSU the game before. Harrison is relied on to be this team’s best wing scoring option and he must start to string together a few good games in a row, as he is lacking in confidence lately. His brother G Andrew Harrison (8.2 PPG, 4.0 APG) has also struggled with consistency this season, but has performed better recently. He had nine points, six assists and four rebounds against South Carolina and 13 points and four assists in a win over LSU the game before. The Kentucky point guard must stay poised and knock down shots when called upon. As long as he is not turning the ball over though, he is doing his job for a team with a number of scoring options. F Trey Lyles (7.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG) had eight points and four rebounds against South Carolina. He had been injured recently and his ability to hit the glass and score has been missed for this team.

Tennessee is coming off of a bad loss at home against LSU and the team has been miserable offensively this season, averaging just 64.2 PPG (257th in NCAA) on 43.2% shooting (198th in NCAA). Defensively it’s been a little better, allowing just 63.6 PPG (108th in NCAA). If the Volunteers are going to have any chance of pulling off this monumental upset, G Josh Richardson (16.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG) will need to have one of his best games this season. Richardson had 15 points in a loss to LSU last game and 27 points in a win over Vanderbilt the game before. He is a tremendous scorer and can also make plays for his teammates, but he’ll need to play a flawless game in this one in order for Tennessee to win. F Armani Moore (10.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.3 BPG) is one of the best two-way players in the SEC and will need to bring his usually high motor into this game on Tuesday. Moore is averaging 15.0 PPG over the past three contests and will need to be able to score in this game as well. This Volunteers team struggles offensively and will need contributions from everybody, including F Derek Reese (5.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG). Reese is one of the team’s best rebounders and is also averaging 11.5 PPG over the past two games. He is not known for his scoring, but if he can get to double-digits in this game then Tennessee could hang around and keep itself in position to win this game. F Willie Carmichael III (3.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG) has seen some increased minutes lately, as this team is dealing with a number of injuries to its frontcourt. He’s going to need to come in and play some tough minutes for this team, as the Kentucky frontcourt can be dominant on any given night. He’s gotten himself in foul trouble in the past three games, but using his fouls could actually help the team in this game. Giving up easy buckets inside will be a huge momentum killer and the Volunteers can’t afford to let that happen.


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