Breslin Center – East Lansing, MI
Tip-off: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -1.5

Big Ten powers Michigan State and No. 23 Ohio State take their rivalry to the hardwood, looking for sole possession of third place in the Big Ten.

Michigan State and No. 23 Ohio State will meet for the only time in the regular conference season at noon on Saturday. Both teams are coming off easy victories (the Spartans thrashed Northwestern in Evansville on Wednesday, 68-44, while the Buckeyes did the same while hosting Penn State on Thursday, 75-55). Ohio State struggles away from home this season and their only two wins were over Northwestern and Minnesota (both by two points), but that was until they faced Rutgers on Sunday and got the performance of a lifetime from G D’Angelo Russell (19.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.5 APG). Russell put up a monster triple-double (23 points, 11 rebounds, 11assists) to lead the Buckeyes to a 79-60 road win at Rutgers. While coming off that dominant road win Wednesday, Michigan State has been anything but dominant at home in the usually-intimidating Breslin Center. While the Spartans are 4-2 SU in conference play at home, they’re a surprising 1-5 ATS (with their last cover coming all the way back in a 70-50 win over Indiana on Jan. 5). Their most recent home loss was just last Saturday, 59-54 to Illinois – a game where the Spartans were 9.5 point favorites. Michigan State and Ohio State have gone back and forth, historically dating back to 2008, trading three victories apiece while playing in East Lansing, with the Spartans having won the last three games played at home, but 1-2 ATS. Ohio State’s last win in the Breslin Center was March of 2012. The last meeting between these two was a 69-67 Ohio State victory over then-No. 22 Michigan State in March of 2014. There are no major injuries on either side, and the Buckeyes welcome the return of recently suspended F Marc Loving (11.3 PPG) who missed the last three games. Coach Thad Matta noted that he “wasn’t sure” how much Loving would play on Saturday.

Can the Spartans win a huge home game against the Buckeyes Sunday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 56% ATS mark (102-81-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 63% ATS (24-14) during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (42-26) for the season. StatFox Zach is on a 60% ATS (18-12) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 56% ATS mark (38-30) this season, while StatFox Brian is 61% ATS (20-13-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (37-30-1) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (20-14-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

With just one day’s rest between the Penn State victory and the showdown with the Spartans it will be interesting to see how fresh the Buckeyes are in this key Big Ten tilt away from home. Ohio State’s margin of victory in the eight games with two day’s rest this season is just +10.5 points (a far cry from their +17.8 points during the season) and they’ve only hit the OVER in two of five contests on two days rest this season. The Buckeyes also average only 66.9 points per-game in their seven road games this season (season-long average is 78.9 PPG, 16th NCAA). When clicking, the Buckeye offense, while not overly fast by pace metrics (67.3 points/poss, 119th NCAA), is most effective when getting easy hoops in “odd-man situations” (29.6% possessions used in transition, 8th NCAA; 69.9 FG% at rim, 8th NCAA). The catalyst for this is the aforementioned Russell, seemingly a shoo-in for national freshman of the year. Many possessions begin and end with the six-foot-five lefty corralling a defensive rebound and pushing the ball up the floor to create for himself, or his capable teammates. Russell has been absurdly hot in his past 10 games (22.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 6.0 APG) while rocketing up NBA draft boards. Many of those aforementioned Russell-started Buckeye possessions ends with a slam from freak-athlete, F Sam Thompson (10.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG), while G Shannon Scott (7.5 PPG, 6.2 APG, 1.9 SPG) has taken over the “lockdown perimeter defender” role of since-departed G Aaron Craft. Ohio State is respectable from downtown (7.2 threes/game, 38.7% 3PT) as Russell hits for 2.8 of those per game (31st NCAA). The revolving door of contributing Buckeyes hasn’t been as successful in finding a stable fourth option, as the suspension of the aforementioned Loving can attest to, but F Jae’Sean Tate (8.4 PPG) has scored 20 points twice in his last five contests, and fellow freshman F Keita Bates-Diop (5.3 PPG) was highly regarded out of high school and gives the Buckeyes a rim protector (six blocks in the last two games) now that he’s cracked Coach Matta’s rotation.

Michigan State has been a true mystery, failing to find consistency up to this point, but maybe a 24-point road conference win (over a foe, Northwestern, that tested the Spartans in the Breslin Center just a month earlier) is what Coach Tom Izzo needed to kick start the late-season and March success that has become so synonymous with his tenure in East Lansing. The Spartans have been just mediocre with 3+ days rest this season (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) and have hit the OVER just three out of nine games, as their offense has sputtered to just 67.6 PPG (roughly 5 points less than their per-game season average). As always, or so it seems, Michigan State’s calling card is rebounding (+8.5 rebounding margin, 9th NCAA), as they do a great job on the defensive glass (27.2 DRPG, 9th NCAA). Leading the way on the boards is senior F Branden Dawson (11.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG – 1st Big Ten, 54% FG). As an undersized “four”, the six-foot-six Dawson is lapping the conference field in rebounds (8.3 RPG is good for 2nd in the Big Ten). Dawson gets help on the glass from the Spartans’ leading scorer, G Denzel Valentine (14.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG), who not only rebounds extremely well for his position, but like his counterpart Russell, can take a rebound coast-to-coast and create an easy basket. If it weren’t for the video game statistics Russell’s been putting up, Valentine would be getting plenty more notice for his recent all-around play (16.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 5.0 APG in his last five games). The last of Michigan State’s “big three” may be the most important, as slumping G Travis Trice (13.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) must snap out of it (10 PPG, 34% FG in his last four games) if the Spartans are to hold serve at home. Coach Izzo had Trice come off the bench for the first time in conference play in the Spartans’ win over Northwestern on Wednesday to positive results (4-6 from three, 16 points). It’ll be interesting to see if “Travis Trice – sixth man” repeats itself on Saturday against the Buckeyes.