On December 30th 2014, Indiana went into Ann Arbor to play Michigan. Leading the Fighting Illini was senior All-Big Ten G Rayvonte Rice (17.2 PPG). Michigan countered with preseason All-Big Ten G Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG). A month after that, Michigan learned it would be without LeVert for the rest of the season as well. It’s a good thing, then, that the stars of the aforementioned Michigan win (and cover) over Illinois were guys who are still healthy, as G Malcolm Hill (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had 17 points and nine boards for the Illini, while reserve G Aubrey Dawkins (4.8 PPG) scored a career-high 20 points (6-for-7 3PT) to aid in the Wolverines’ cause. The Wolverines and Illini are going in opposite directions, however. While Michigan seemed to band together with close losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan State while playing without LeVert and sophomore G Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG), they’ve still only won once in their last five and postseason play is starting to seem like a lofty goal. Conversely, the Illini are winners of three straight conference games, fresh off an upset of Michigan State in Lansing on Saturday. Illinois is 11-1 at home (6-4 ATS) and 4-1 at home in conference (3-2 ATS), while Michigan is 2-4 SU on the road in conference but is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog since Jan. 27. Michigan has dominated this matchup as of late: The Fighting Illini’s last win over Michigan was a 54-52 home win in Feb. 2011, as they’ve dropped the last eight contests between the two squads. Illinois has failed to cover the last four times these two teams have met in Champaign. Michigan has been the favorite the last five times these teams have played. G Aaron Cosby (7.8 PPG) is suspended indefinitely (Cosby was also injured at the time for an issue with his eye) for Illinois. In addition to LeVert, Walton is also doubtful to play for the Wolverines.
Most of the good feeling surrounding the effort without LeVert and Walton has subsided for Michigan, only replaced by slim postseason hope. The Wolverines are still a tough out, especially away from home (just ask Wisconsin), as the only blowout they’ve suffered in someone else’s gym was to Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, the recent personnel losses have rendered Michigan completely inept on the glass over their last three games (22.3 RPG in that span, 349th NCAA). As you can guess, this means they’ve been crushed in rebounding margin (-14, -16, -11) in those games. This is where they miss Walton and LeVert most, as both were amongst the nation’s better rebounders at the guard position. G Zak Irvin (13.6 PPG, 2.4 threes/game) finally had the breakout game that the Wolverines will need on a consistent basis, as he poured in 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in Michigan’s 73-70 loss at Indiana on Sunday. F Ricky Doyle (6.5 PPG), who’s seen the bulk of the playing time as Michigan’s lone big man recently, scored 15 points and added six boards (the only Wolverine with more than three rebounds). Doyle was instrumental in the December win over Illinois scoring 13 points and hitting the free throw that would send that game to overtime. G Spike Albrecht (5.9 PPG, 3.6 APG) was his consistent self in a starting role with 12 points and seven assists against Indiana; he’s just not the difference maker that Walton is. Dawkins will have to rediscover the touch that made him so lethal against Illinois the first time, as he could only muster seven points in 34 minutes versus Indiana’s Big Ten-worst defense.
Illinois is a mediocre rebounding team (30.8 RPG in-conference, 10th Big Ten), but they won’t need to do much (as shown earlier) to hold a significant advantage over Michigan on the glass. Hill should be a top scoring option, again, as he was versus Michigan in December. Hill’s scoring average without Rice is almost three full points per game higher (17.7 PPG - last nine games), and he’s being more assertive as an offensive leader, having attempted double-digit shots in eight of those nine games. Hill’s 6-foot-6, 230lb frame and inside-out game is a physical mismatch for any individual defender on Michigan’s side of the ball. Rice, however, will be in the lineup for this game. He will be the main option for the Illini, but being out has allowed his teammates to further develop their games. If Michigan adjusts its defense to keep Hill and Rice from stopping them, then G Kendrick Nunn (11.5 PPG; 16.1 PPG with Rice out) will surely make them pay. Nunn’s production has been the biggest beneficiary from Rice’s absence, and arguably the biggest boon to the Illini’s surging ways. Nunn scored only three points in the first meeting with Michigan; you can bet that will change on Thursday. It hasn’t just been the Nunn and Hill show, though, as Illinois has gotten increased production across the board. G Jaylon Tate’s emergence (3.9 PPG, 3.5APG; 3.3:1 A:TO in Rice’s absence) as a true distributor has freed up Nunn to fire up shots at will. F Leron Black (5.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has shown flashes of promise, averaging 6.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG over his past six. Even embattled senior C Nnanna Egwu (7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) has pitched in big performances like his 12-point, seven-rebound, three-block gem at Michigan State on Saturday. Coach John Croce’s team won’t be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut (63.7 PPG in-conference – down almost 9 PPG from season-long numbers), however Illinois seems to be finding an identity on defense. The Fighting Illini has held their opponents under 0.95 points-per-possession in all three victories during their current win streak (the first time they’ve done so during a three-game stretch this season).
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