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Struggling USC hosts Oregon Wednesday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/11/2015  at  10:26:00 AM
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OREGON DUCKS (17-7)

at USC TROJANS (9-14)

Galen Center – Los Angeles, CA
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

The Trojans look to snap an eight-game losing streak when they host Oregon on Wednesday.

In a contest between two squads who were supposed to be knee-deep in transition years, the Oregon Ducks seemingly haven’t gotten that memo. While actions by former Ducks under Coach Dana Altman’s watch have caused the coach and program to come under scrutiny, Altman has done a masterful job on the court molding the holdovers into a possible tournament team. Oregon (7-4 in conference, 3rd Pac-12), looks to win for the fifth time in their past six games (3-2 ATS over that span), and they’ll have an opponent ripe for the taking in USC, who hasn’t won in over a month. Coach Andy Enfield’s Trojans have had many close calls during their slide, which has pushed them down to the basement of the Pac-12 at 1-10 in conference. USC is actually 4-2 ATS over their past six, including a triple-overtime 98-94 loss versus Colorado on Jan. 29, a one-point defeat at Cal last Thursday, and an eight point loss in Eugene in the first meeting between the Ducks and Trojans on Jan. 22. Oregon G Joseph Young (19.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) led four Ducks in double-figures with 19 points in the aforementioned victory over USC. Oregon won that contest at the charity stripe, shooting 81% on a season-high 31 attempts, and on the glass, with a conference season high of 45 rebounds (+8 rebounding margin). Oregon has owned USC in recent memory, going undefeated (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) since 2010. The Ducks are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at the Galen Center in that span. There are no relevant injuries on either side. Ducks F Jordan Bell (5.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 3.1 BPG) was suspended for Oregon’s last game, a 95-72 victory over Washington State on Sunday, but is expected back with the team versus USC.

Oregon still paces the conference in total offense (77.3 PPG, 20th NCAA) and has been scorching the nets as of late, shooting 53% and 54% FG, in home wins last week over Washington and Washington State, respectively. That said, their defense away from home is the worst in the country amongst schools in “power” conferences (81 PPG against, 348th NCAA). All four road opponents for the Ducks in-conference have exceeded their season-long PPG averages, with three of those four opponents scoring more than 85 points (including lowly Washington State hanging 108 in a victory over Oregon in Pullman). Issues defending the arc is the biggest reason for Oregon’s road defensive woes, as teams shoot 41.5% from three (highest percentage amongst power conferences) when hosting the Ducks (342nd NCAA). Oregon’s offense revolves around their main weapon, Pac-12 second-leading scorer Joseph Young, who is fresh off filling the stat sheet with one of the best games of his career (a 29-point, 10-rebound and eight-assist performance in a revenge win versus Washington State on Sunday). Young is flanked by a rotation of complementary guards in the backcourt who aren’t big offensive threats in Gs Jalil Abdul-Bassit (8.1 PPG), Ahmad Rorie (5.1 PPG, 2.2 APG) and Casey Benson (4.2 PPG, 2.4 APG). Abdul-Bassit, however, has a jumper that has to be respected by opposing defenses (43% 3PT, 1.6 threes/game). Oregon has a long and athletic (if not tall) frontcourt with four players that can hurt you on any given night: F Elgin Cook (12.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) an undersized slasher who’s second in the team in rebounds and goes to the line often (104 FTA, 11th Pac 12), Bell, the active Pac-12 leader in BPG (3.1, 7th NCAA), F Dillon Brooks (struggling in conf. play but averaging 12.7 PPG this season), and F Dwayne Benjamin (8 PPG) who put up a career-high 25 points in Bell’s absence against the Cougars on Sunday.

USC, to the naked eye, is no match for the rest of the Pac-12. At 1-10 in conference, losing games by an average of 9.4 points, you’d think that the entire conference is crushing the Trojans nightly, but that isn’t so. USC has had problems with one team in particular, Utah (losing by 24 and 28 points respectively to the Utes) which skews their numbers even worse. Take out those two abominations, and you’re talking about a 1-8 team whose scoring margin is just -5.7 PPG in conference (-2.27 PPG at home). Considering Coach Enfield’s well-known background with “Dunk City” at Florida Gulf Coast, the Trojans have been very uninspiring on offense in his two seasons at the helm. USC has tried to be a transition team with 70.1 possessions-per-game (31st NCAA), but the efficiency (0.95 pts per-poss, 309th NCAA) leaves much to be desired. USC is led by 6-foot-9 sophomore F Nikola Jovanovic (12.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 52% FG). Jovanovic has the potential to blow up at home, as the four times he’s exceeded 20 points have been in the Galen Center. Since scoring a career-high 30 in USC’s triple overtime loss to Colorado, however, Jovanovic has gone into a funk, failing to record double-digits in his last three games and shooting 24% (5-for-21) from the field in that stretch. USC’s offense is supplemented by an explosive-yet-inconsistent backcourt. G Katin Reinhardt (12.3 PPG), makes his living with the three-ball (6.6 threes attempted/game) and leads USC in conference scoring at 14 per game. G Justin McClaughlin (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) who has the ball in his hands a ton (using almost 25% of USC’s possessions), and is coming off a career-high eight-assist performance versus Stanford on Sunday. G Julian Jacobs (7.4 PPG) plays more of a complementary role on offense, but shoots it well from the field (50% FG) and did well in relief of an injured McLaughlin early in conference play.


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