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Nebraska hosts No. 5 Wisconsin Tuesday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/10/2015  at  9:23:00 AM
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WISCONSIN BADGERS(21-2)

at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (13-10)

Pinnacle Bank Arena - Lincoln, Nebraska
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -9.0

No. 5 Wisconsin looks to pile it on versus a struggling Nebraska team that had their way with the Badgers the last time Wisconsin visited Lincoln.

The Wisconsin Badgers, winners of six Big Ten contests in a row (2-3-1 ATS), look to bookend the win that started this streak (70-55 over Nebraska on Jun. 11) with a season sweep of the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin is fresh off a two-game stretch at home last week where they beat Indiana and Northwestern, both by double figures (92-78 and 65-50 respectively). Four players averaged over 13.5 PPG in the two game swing, while G Bronson Koenig (6.9 PPG, 2.1 APG, 44% 3PT) stayed undefeated in his run as a starter for the injured Traevon Jackson (9.4 PPG, 2.9 APG) while shooting the lights out (7-for-12) from three. In 2014, Nebraska started out conference play in horrid fashion (0-4) only to rebound with an 11-4 finish to be an NCAA tournament team. In a 2015 season where the Cornhuskers were expected to build on that success, things have taken an even worse turn. The Cornhuskers are winless on the road in conference and a mediocre 5-6 overall (5-5-1 ATS). They don’t own a top-25 win to date this season. That said, they’ve been solid at home (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) in conference since the calendar flipped to January. Their one game as a home underdog (Jan. 24 vs Michigan State) turned into a 79-77 SU win. The Cornhuskers are coming off a disappointing 13-point loss at Penn State on Saturday with the offense only managing a meager 43 points (15-for-51 FG; 2-for-20 from three). Since Nebraska entered the Big Ten in 2011, the Cornhuskers are 1-5 SU (3-2-1 ATS) versus the Badgers, again, with that lone win coming in March of last season in Lincoln. In that upset in 2014, Nebraska’s stars, G Shavon Shields (15.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and F Terran Petteway (18.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG) combined for 52 points. In the most recent Wisconsin victory (in Madison last month), Badgers’ C Frank Kaminsky (17.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) led five teammates in double figures with 22 points.

Can Wisconsin stay hot with a road win in Nebraska Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 56% ATS mark (95-76-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 63% ATS (22-13) during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (40-25) for the season. StatFox Zach is on a 63% ATS (17-10) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (37-28) this season, while StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (18-12-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 54% ATS (35-29-1) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (20-14-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Wisconsin remains, by most tempo-free measures, arguably the best offense in college basketball (74.6 PPG in conference, 1st Big Ten, 28th NCAA; 58.3 possessions/game in conference, 14th Big Ten, 344th NCAA). You read that right: Number 1 in Big Ten PPG; slowest pace of play (only 12.1% of FGA in transition, 349th NCAA). They shoot 49% FG in conference as well and are the only team in the country with an assist-to-turnover ratio higher than 2 (2.03) in conference as well (the next best team is Pitt at 1.85). Their pace of play and effectiveness on the offensive end spills over to frustration from their opponent on the defensive end, where chances are limited and the Badgers don’t beat themselves (61.2 PPG/against in conf. play, 2nd Big Ten; 13.6% FT point percentage, 2nd NCAA in conference play). Nebraska’s defensive strength is keeping teams away from the rim and forcing two-point jumpers (19.5% FGA’s at-rim, 2nd NCAA; 41.4% FGA’s two-point jumpers, 10th NCAA). Fortunately for Wisconsin, that plays into their strength, as inside-out F’s Kaminsky, Sam Dekker (12.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG), and Nigel Hayes (12.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) help Wisconsin shoot 44.9% on two-point jumpers, good for 3rd in the country. Kaminsky has been insanely efficient during the Badgers’ six-game streak, as with only one close game he hasn’t had to pile on the counting stats. That said, “Frank the tank” is shooting at a 58/57/81 clip on FG/3PT/FT over his last six, while also leading the team in APG (3.0) during the winning streak. In the loss to Nebraska last March in Lincoln, Kaminsky led the Badgers with 14 points and four blocks, but was limited to 28 minutes with foul trouble. Hayes chipped in with 12 points in 19 foul-plagued minutes off the bench, while Dekker struggled with six points (3-for-9 FG).

Nebraska’s Jekyll-and-Hyde nature with home/road splits says that this game isn’t a given for the Badgers. Nebraska will have to rediscover their shooting touch if they hope to have any chance at the upset, however. Their conference play scoring numbers (57.5 PPG, 13th Big Ten, 331st NCAA) aren’t going to cut it, as the difference in conference play efficiency between Wisconsin’s offense (1.28 points/possession, 1st NCAA) and Nebraska’s offense (0.94 points/possession, 304th NCAA) is startling. The Cornhuskers become a better offensive team at home (68.5 PPG in 13 home games). The good thing is that Nebraska can defend, (60.2 PPG against in conf. play, 1st Big Ten, 40th NCAA). Nebraska also likes to slow the pace, as this game should be a truly grind-it-out affair (Nebraska has only broken 60 possessions once in their past eight games). As it has been all season, as Shields and Petteway go, so go the Cornhuskers. Petteway, an All-Big Ten performer last season who had preseason mentions as a possible All-American, hasn’t taken a big jump forward in his senior year. He’s still a volume shooter (6.9 3PA per game, 1st Big Ten) and he’s a markedly different player in Pinnacle Bank Arena (20.8 PPG, 45% FG, 38% 3PT in 13 home games) than he is on the road (15.3 PPG, 37% FG, 24% 3PT). Petteway has scored 27 and 26 points, respectively, in his last two games versus Wisconsin. Shields’ scoring has dipped in conference play as he’s only hit his season average three times in that span. His three point stroke has completely disappeared this season as well, as he’s hitting the same number per game (0.6) as he did last season, yet he’s almost doubled his attempts per game (1.8 threes attempted/game in ’14 vs 3 threes attempted/game in ’15). Petteway won’t be able to win this game on his own. Nebraska doesn’t have anything close to a third option on offense, as F Walter Pitchford (7 PPG) and on-ball defensive specialist, G Benny Parker (5.2 PPG, 1.5 SPG) aren’t real threats. Exciting freshman G Tarin Smith (4.3 PPG), from Bobby Hurley Sr’s vaunted St. Anthony’s program in New Jersey, has started contributing as of late and could be someone to watch. Smith equaled his season-high with 8 points of Nebraska’s 43 points on Saturday, as the rest of the offense struggled mightily versus Penn State.


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