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No. 2 Virginia hosts No. 4 Duke Saturday
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Published: 1/31/2015  at  5:30:00 AM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS (17-3)

at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (19-0)

John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia.
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m.
Line: N/A

No. 2 Virginia looks to remain undefeated on Saturday night as the Cavaliers play host to No. 4 Duke.

These two teams met twice during the 2013-2014 season, with the Blue Devils winning the regular season matchup 69-65 in Durham. However, the Cavaliers returned the favor by winning the ACC championship game, 72-63. Duke (11-9 ATS, 10-7 OVER) is coming off a 77-73 loss at Notre Dame on Wednesday night, as the Blue Devils blew a double-digit second half lead. Duke has struggled on the road in conference play, as the Blue Devils are only 2-2 this year away from Cameron Indoor Stadium in conference play. This is a must win game for Duke in order to stay in the ACC title race, as the Cavaliers would be up five games with the win. The loss against Notre Dame was the first loss this year against a top-25 team, as the Blue Devils had defeated their other three ranked foes. Virginia (12-5 ATS, 7-6-1 UNDER) has been as good of a team as there is in college basketball, but the Cavaliers are coming off an extremely difficult game against in-state rival Virginia Tech. Virginia was down for much of the game, but was able to come back and gut out a 50-47 road win. The Cavaliers have been great at home, going 5-3 ATS at the John Paul Jones Arena. None of the victories at home have been by anything under double-digits.

Can Virginia move to 20-0 on the season with a win against Duke? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 59% ATS mark (82-57) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 68% ATS (19-9) during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (37-21) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (15-9) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (32-26) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 65% ATS (13-7) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (33-25) this season. StatFox Dave is also heating up with a 62% ATS (8-5) mark in Best Bets since Jan. 13, and StatFox Scott is a strong 63% ATS (17-10) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

The Blue Devils have been very good on offense this season, ranking 8th in shooting (50% from the field), 11th in scoring (81.2 PPG), 31st in assists (15.5 APG) and 43rd in rebounding (38.1 RPG). Freshman PF Jahlil Okafor (18.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG on 66% from the field) had a huge game in the loss to Notre Dame, finishing with 22 points and 17 rebounds. For only a freshman, Okafor is very skilled, and can score the ball in many different ways. He is a tough matchup for any team, but his size will be a handful for the Cavaliers. SG Quinn Cook (14.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 2.8 APG) and PG Tyus Jones (10.9 PPG, 5.0 APG and 1.4 SPG) are two guards who are capable of erupting for 25 points on any given night, but they have also done a great job of not turning the ball over (3.1 TPG between the two). Cook has shown the ability to catch fire from the 3-point line (39% from deep), while Jones is playing his best basketball of the season as of late (16.5 PPG, 5.0 APG the past four games). SF Justise Winslow (10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 1.8 APG) and C Amile Jefferson (8.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 64% FG) are two more players capable of having big games for Duke, and are extremely important to the team on the glass. Duke just dismissed SG Rasheed Sulaimon from the team. He was a lockdown defender on the wing and it’ll be tough to find somebody who can do what he does off the bench.

A lot of teams win in college basketball because of their offense, but for Virginia, it starts with the defense. The Cavaliers rank 1st in points allowed (49.2 PPG), 2nd in defensive shooting percentage (34.1% FG) and 5th in total fouls (279). While Tony Bennett’s squad does not score a ton of points (68.3 PPG, 161st in the country), they are a very good shooting team (35th in the country, 47.3% FG). They also are outstanding when it comes to taking care of the ball, ranking 3rd in fewest turnovers (9.0 TPG). SF Justin Anderson (13.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 52% threes) and SG Malcolm Brogdon (13.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 38% threes) are the top scorers for Virginia, and lead a team that can really shoot the ball from the 3-point line. Virginia ranks 22nd in the nation in 3-point shooting (39.5% threes) and that ability to knockdown shots coupled with their ability to defend is a lethal combination. The Cavaliers average only five steals and five blocks each game, which really shows how great their on-ball defense truly is. F Anthony Gill (11.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 56% FG) is another guy capable of scoring, and he is also the leading rebounder on the team. For Duke to get a win in this game, the Blue Devils are going to have to play a great game, because the Cavaliers won’t beat themselves.


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