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Red-hot Grizzlies visit Mavericks on Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/27/2015  at  11:49:00 AM
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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (32-12)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (30-15)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -4.5, Total: 201

The Grizzlies look to win their fourth straight game on Tuesday night when they visit the Mavericks.

Memphis is coming off of a 103-94 home win over the Magic on Monday night and the team played beautifully on offense. The Grizzlies average an outstanding 22.4 APG (10th in NBA), but they were able to dish out 25 total assists on Monday. They’ve now scored more than 100 points in six of the past eight games, including two in a row. The tougher task will be holding the Mavericks to under 100, as Dallas averages 107.8 PPG (2nd in NBA) and just beat the Grizzlies 103-95 in Memphis eight days ago on Jan. 19. However, the Mavericks have lost each of their past two games (both SU and ATS) and they’re allowing 105.5 PPG on 50% FG in those contests. These teams have split wins (both SU and ATS) on the season, but both games were played in Memphis. When hosting the Grizzlies, the Mavericks have won-and-covered in two straight and 15 of the past 18 meetings (11-7 ATS). Three straight meetings played at American Airlines Center have gone Over the total. In the past two seasons, the Grizzlies are 18-9 ATS in January games, but the Mavericks are 18-8 ATS after a road loss in the past two seasons and 43-25 ATS after failing to cover in two of their past three games over the past three seasons. SG Tony Allen (ankle) and PG Mike Conley (wrist) are questionable for Memphis, and C Tyson Chandler (knee) is probable for Dallas.

Can the Mavericks extend their winning streak with a comfortable victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (115-92-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a stellar 63% ATS (56-33) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Gary, who is a sizzling 72% ATS (13-5) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 59% ATS (38-27) this season. StatFox Scott is also red-hot with a 68% ATS (17-8) mark in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 55% ATS (36-29) for the season. StatFox Brian is 61% ATS (26-17) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 55% ATS (36-29) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Zach is 61% ATS (11-7) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2.

The Grizzlies have been one of the best defensive teams in basketball this season, allowing just 97.3 PPG (6th in NBA) on 44% FG and 36% threes. But against the Mavs this season, they have surrendered 104.0 PPG on 45% FG and 43% threes. Memphis will do its best to slow this game down and play at its preferred pace and doing that would mean heavily featuring C Marc Gasol (19.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.7 BPG) and PF Zach Randolph (16.9 PPG, 11.9 RPG) early in the game. Gasol had 16 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in the victory over Orlando on Monday night and he’s been great against the Mavericks this season too with 25.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 5.0 APG in the two meetings. He should be able to replicate that success, especially if C Tyson Chandler is not 100 percent for this one. Randolph, meanwhile, is coming off of what might be his best game of the season. He had 24 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in 34 minutes against the Magic to give him nine straight double-doubles (19.3 PPG, 13.4 RPG) since returning from a nine-game absence (knee injury) on Jan. 9. Randolph has double-doubles in both meetings with Dallas this season, averaging 17.5 PPG and 14.0 RPG, and the Grizzlies will certainly feed him often. PG Mike Conley (17.4 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG) would be a huge loss for this team if he is unable to play through a sprained wrist that he suffered against the Magic. SF Jeff Green (16.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG) would be relied on to score a lot more if Memphis is playing without its second leading scorer Conley, who is shooting career highs with 46% FG and 42% threes. Green, who started the season in Boston, has faced the Mavericks three times this season, averaging 21.3 PPG and 7.0 RPG.

The Mavericks have lost two straight games and they’ll look to get back on track with a home win over a hot Grizzlies team. PF Dirk Nowitzki (18.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is averaging 24.0 PPG over the past two contests and has been shooting the ball extremely well recently (53% FG, 46% threes over past five games). He’ll need to be on his game against Memphis with Zach Randolph coming to town. He had 21 points and six rebounds in a win over the Grizzlies eight days ago. The health of C Tyson Chandler (10.5 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Chandler has been defending the rim extremely well for the Mavericks with 10 blocks in his past three contests. Against a team with as strong of a frontcourt as Memphis has, he will need to be at his very best. One guy who needs to step his game up is PG Rajon Rondo (9.4 PPG, 9.2 APG, 6.5 RPG), who has really struggled recently. Rondo had one of his better games as a member of the Mavericks in Sunday's loss to the Pelicans, finishing with 17 points, nine assists and eight rebounds. He is, however, averaging just 8.0 PPG and 5.0 APG over the past five games, and has a mere 5.0 PPG and 2.5 APG in two meetings with Memphis this season. Rondo will need to be a lot better for this team going forward. SF Chandler Parsons (15.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.2 APG) had 15 points when these teams met last week. He’ll need to win his matchup with Jeff Green for the Mavericks to win this one at home.


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