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No. 7 Arizona visits sizzling Stanford Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/22/2015  at  4:46:00 AM
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ARIZONA WILDCATS (16-2)

at STANFORD CARDINAL (13-4)

Maples Pavilion - Stanford, CA
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -4

No. 7 Arizona puts a modest two-game win streak on the line when it visits a red-hot Stanford team seeking its fourth straight victory.

The Wildcats have just two losses this season, but haven't played very well on the road with a 2-2 SU mark (1-3 ATS), including a shocking 58-56 loss to 10-point underdog Oregon State in their most recent away game on Jan. 11. The Beavers shot 51% FG in that upset, but Arizona has bounced back from that defeat with two lopsided wins over Colorado (68-54) and No. 12 Utah (69-51) where it held these two Pac-12 foes to a combined 41.1% FG. The Cardinal have an unbeaten 9-0 home record this season (5-3 ATS), including a 72-59 win over defending national champion Connecticut on Saturday where they outrebounded the Huskies 48 to 24. Stanford is now 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) in its past eight games, including three straight victories. To extend that win streak, it will have to take down a Wildcats team that has beaten the Cardinal nine straight times (6-3 ATS), including four in a row (3-1 ATS) at Maples Pavilion. Arizona is also 26-13 ATS after allowing 55 points or less under head coach Sean Miller, but Stanford is 11-1 ATS at home in the past two seasons after four straight games of committing less than 15 turnovers. While the Wildcats enter this game with a completely healthy roster, the Cardinal are still without PF Reid Travis (7.5 PPG), who has missed six straight games with a stress fracture, while seldom-used C Grant Verhoeven (1.5 PPG) is questionable with a hip injury.

Can Arizona put a halt to Stanford's winning streak? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 57% ATS mark (61-47) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 68% ATS (15-7) during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (33-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 65% ATS (11-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (28-23) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 57% ATS (8-6) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a profitable 54% ATS mark (28-24) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Arizona doesn't have glaring weakness, as it averages a strong 74.3 PPG on 48.9% FG and a respectable 35.7% threes. This team doesn't usually hurt itself with turnovers (+2.8 TO margin, 1.24 Ast/TO ratio) and is ferocious on the glass (+7.8 RPG margin). The Wildcats are also a relentless defensive squad that allows only 58.8 PPG on 39.5% FG and 33.0% threes. Because all three of Arizona's double-digit scorers are in the frontcourt, this squad doesn't make a ton of threes (5.1 per game) and shoots a subpar 67.4% FT. The best all-around player for the Wildcats is freshman SF Stanley Johnson (14.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG) who makes 48% FG and 40% threes. After scoring only seven points in the Jan. 11 loss at Oregon State, he has averaged 20.0 PPG (48% FG) and 8.5 RPG in his past two games. Junior PF Brandon Ashley (11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) also shoots high percentages (49% FG, 39% threes), but is averaging only 9.5 PPG on the road this season, which includes a five-point, three-rebound dud at Oregon State. But since that road loss, Ashley has recorded a near double-double in his past two games with 10.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG. In his one meeting versus Stanford last season, Ashley had 10 points on 3-of-9 shooting at Maples Pavilion. SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is the last of the 10-point scorers on this team, shooting 50% from the floor and tallying a team-high 20 blocks. Hollis-Jefferson averaged 13.5 PPG (6-of-13 FG, 15-of-19 FT) on the Oregon road trip two weeks ago, but scored just 10 points combined on 1-of-9 shooting in last week's homestand. He had identical scoring lines of eight points on 2-of-7 FG in both meetings with Stanford last season. The man who supplies this frontcourt the basketball is senior PG T.J. McConnell (9.1 PPG, 5.9 APG, 4.4 RPG, 2.1 SPG), who carries an impressive 3.1 Ast/TO ratio this season with three or less turnovers in all 18 games. He has scored 13+ points in each of his past three road contests (16.0 PPG) and is coming off an outstanding performance versus Utah on Saturday when he had 16 points (8-of-10 FG), six assists and three rebounds. He also played well versus the Cardinal last season with 12.5 PPG (56% FG), 5.0 RPG and 4.0 APG.

Stanford is a solid team in all aspects, scoring 73.1 PPG despite a pedestrian 43.9% FG. With Arizona being so tough inside, the Cardinal will have to continue shooting a high percentage from long range, as they make an impressive 40.2% threes this season. The injury loss of PF Reid Travis (6.9 RPG) has diminished the rebounding capacity of this club, but it still outrebounds opponents by +4.5 RPG. While Stanford doesn't block many shots (3.1 per game) or rack up a ton of steals (6.3 SPG), it plays sound team defense in limiting teams to 63.6 PPG on 40.7% FG, but does allow a subpar 36.2% threes. The backbone of the Cardinal is their trio of seniors, who are their top three scorers. SG Chasson Randle (19.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.7 APG) is an electric scorer who makes 39% threes for the season. He has been on a scoring binge in the past five games (23.2 PPG, 46% threes) with at least 23 points in four of those contests. In Saturday's win over UConn, Randle finished with 23 points, five assists and four steals, but last season versus Arizona, he scored only 12 points (combined 7-of-23 FG) in both defeats. SF Anthony Brown (15.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.9 APG) knocks down 46% threes for the season and has been the team's most consistent scorer. Since struggling to a season-low six points on Dec. 20, Brown has at least 13 points in each of his past eight games, averaging 18.5 PPG (54% threes) and 7.3 RPG in this stretch where his team is 7-1 SU. After not doing much in the first meeting with Arizona last season (seven points on 3-of-9 FG), Brown played very well in Tucson with 14 points (5-of-7 FG), six rebounds and four assists. The other senior vital to the success of Stanford is 6-foot-10 C Stefan Nastic (13.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG) who has scored at least nine points in all 17 games this season. He's averaged 13.7 PPG (53% FG) and 9.0 RPG during the Cardinal's three-game win streak, which includes a double-double on Saturday (12 points, 13 boards).


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