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No. 6 Wisconsin hosts No. 25 Iowa Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/20/2015  at  4:37:00 AM
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IOWA HAWKEYES (13-5)

at WISCONSIN BADGERS (16-2)

Kohl Center - Madison, WI
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -9.5, Total: 132

Two top-25 schools look to stay atop the Big Ten conference on Tuesday night when No. 6 Wisconsin hosts No. 25 Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have been road warriors this season at 3-0 (SU and ATS) in true road games, outscoring these high-profile hosts (then-No. 12 North Carolina, then-No. 20 Ohio State and Minnesota) by a hefty 15.3 PPG margin. Iowa completed the season sweep of the Buckeyes on Saturday with a 76-67 home win, which makes the club 4-1 (SU and ATS) in conference action. The Badgers are also 4-1 SU in Big Ten play, but only 1-3-1 ATS. They have been crushing teams at home all season though, going 9-1 SU (5-4-1 ATS) at Kohl Center where they outscore visitors 75.8 PPG (50% FG) to 55.1 PPG (41% FG). This includes a 70-55 win over 15-point underdog Nebraska in the most recent game on Thursday. This has been a tight series since the start of 2011, with all seven meetings in this timeframe being decided by seven points or less. Wisconsin holds the 4-3 SU edge, including three straight SU wins, but Iowa is 6-1 ATS. Since 1997, the Badgers are 22-9 SU (14-14 ATS) in this series, including 11-3 SU (6-6 ATS) in Madison. Although the Hawkeyes are 21-5 ATS (81%) in the past three seasons after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games, Wisconsin benefits from the trend that excellent defensive road teams (40% or less FG allowed) facing good defenses (40% to 42.5% FG allowed) after 15+ games, after two straight contests of making at least 50% FG, are a dreadful 5-29 ATS (15%) in the past five seasons. Iowa SG Peter Jok (hand) is questionable for Tuesday, while the Badgers remain without PG Traevon Jackson (ankle).

Will Iowa play well on the road again Tuesday, or will Wisconsin breeze to a victory? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (58-42) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 65% ATS (13-7) during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (31-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 56% ATS (28-22) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 58% ATS (7-5) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 54% ATS mark (27-23) this season. StatFox Scott is on a 65% ATS (13-7) Best Bets run since Dec. 23 and StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (6-4) in Best Bets since Jan. 6.

Iowa's offense isn't overly explosive with 70.8 PPG (111th in nation) on 42.0% FG (251st in NCAA) and 31.3% threes (262nd in nation), but it shoots 75.8% from the foul line, good for 11th-best in the country. The Hawkeyes defend pretty well, holding teams to 61.4 PPG (62nd in NCAA) on 38.9% FG (40th in nation) and 32.0% threes. They also have a +3.7 RPG margin (84th in NCAA) and a solid 1.2 Ast/TO ratio (67th in nation) that shows the team is tough and disciplined. PF Aaron White (16.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has scored at least eight points in all 18 games this season, which includes 22+ points in three of the past six contests. But he scored just 8.0 PPG (5-of-10 FG) with 7.5 RPG versus the Badgers last season, and will be counted on to produce much more on Tuesday. Frontcourt mate SF Jarrod Uthoff (11.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 39% threes) can score from anywhere, but snapped a five-game streak of double-figure scoring on Saturday when he scored only seven points on 2-of-7 FG. Six-foot-10 C Gabriel Olaseni (8.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and 7-foot-1 C Adam Woodbury (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG) do a great job of manning the paint for the Hawkeyes, and Woodbury is coming off a career-high-tying 13 points plus 10 rebounds versus Ohio State. With SG Peter Jok (6.2 PPG) questionable to play on Tuesday, PG Mike Gesell (7.0 PPG, 3.7 APG) will need to find his offense more. Gesell has a career-low scoring average, but he did net 11 points in Saturday's win. He also does a nice job of controlling the offense with only 1.6 turnovers per game this season. If Gesell can limit his team's mistakes, this game has all the makings of being very close once again.

Wisconsin is so efficient on offense because it rarely turns the ball over. Its 8.2 turnovers per game are the fewest in the nation, and its 1.6 Ast/TO ratio ranks fifth in the NCAA. The team scores 73.3 PPG (T-54th in nation) on 48.8% FG (19th in NCAA) and 35.4% threes (126th in nation), with a strong 74.0% FT clip (32nd in NCAA). As strong as the offensive numbers are, head coach Bo Ryan wins because of defense. The Badgers hold teams to a mere 54.9 PPG (6th in nation) despite giving up 40.8% FG (102nd in nation) and 34.6% threes, because they crash the glass with a +6.4 RPG margin (30th in NCAA). The leader of this team is C Frank Kaminsky (16.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) who makes 53% FG and 36% threes. Wisconsin has lost just once all season in games Kaminsky has played, and after missing the upset loss at Rutgers, the big man had 22 points, five boards and two blocks in Thursday's win over Nebraska. Last season versus Iowa, Kaminsky had 15.0 PPG (11-of-21 FG), 5.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG in the two Badgers victories. SF Sam Dekker (12.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) continues to provide consistent production with at least 11 points in eight of his past nine games, and at least five rebounds in 10 straight contests. PF Nigel Hayes (12.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG) is also playing great with 14.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.5 APG in his past two games. With PG Traevon Jackson (9.4 PPG, 2.9 APG) injured, SG Josh Gasser (7.5 PPG, 41% threes) has handled the ball more, but has failed to record an assist in four of his past six games. However, Gasser does not have more than one turnover in a game since the season opener back on Nov. 14 when he committed two miscues versus Northern Kentucky. In 502 minutes of action this season, Gasser has an amazing nine total turnovers, or 1 TO per every 55.8 minutes.


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