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Thunder look to extend win streak Tuesday at Heat
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/20/2015  at  5:14:00 AM
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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (20-20)

at MIAMI HEAT (18-22)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5, Total: 199

The Thunder are looking for a third straight victory when they head to South Beach on Tuesday to face the Heat.

Oklahoma City needs to win in bunches in order to sneak its way back into the Western Conference playoffs. They Thunder have now won-and-covered in two straight games after an easy 127-99 road victory over the Magic on Sunday. Miami, meanwhile, beat the Kings 95-83 as a 3.5-point underdog in Sacramento on Friday, giving the club three wins in its past four games (all on the road), and going 2-1-1 ATS in those contests. These teams last met on Feb. 20 of last season, when the Heat rolled to a 103-81 win as 3-point road underdogs. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 3-1 (SU and ATS) in this series, and prior to an Oklahoma City 112-95 win-and-cover in South Beach on Jan. 29, 2014, the Heat had won-and-covered in five straight games against the Thunder in American Airlines Arena. Over the past three seasons, Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS after two straight games with 26 or more assists, and is also 6-1 ATS this season after scoring 110 points or more. The club is also fortunate enough to be up against a Miami team that is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, but the Heat benefit from the Thunder being 6-14 ATS on the road this season and 2-12 ATS in the past two seasons in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. With SG Dwyane Wade (hamstring), SF Luol Deng (illness) and PF Chris Andersen (flu) all probable for this one, there are no significant absences for either team.

Can the Thunder cover a moderate spread visiting a surging Heat club? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (106-85-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a stellar 67% ATS (43-21) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott, who is a sizzling 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 55% ATS (33-27) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (24-14) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 57% ATS (34-26) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 57% ATS (34-26) this season. StatFox Zach is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is 58% ATS (7-5) since Jan. 2.

The Thunder are playing much better as of this past week and they’ll now look to pick up a huge victory in Miami. SF Kevin Durant (25.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.7 APG) had some trouble adjusting when he returned from his foot injury earlier in the season, but he is now looking like a superstar once again. Durant had 21 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in 28 minutes in Sunday's victory over the Magic. He has a tough matchup with Luol Deng guarding him for Miami, but he’ll need to find a way to remain effective for his team to gut out a highly productive game. PG Russell Westbrook (25.1 PPG, 7.5 APG, 5.8 RPG) should be able to really dominate this Miami team. The Heat are weak at the point guard position and don’t have anybody with the capability of matching Westbrook’s athleticism. Over the past two games, the point guard is distributing the ball very effectively with 11.5 APG, and will continue to find his teammates for open shots in this matchup. PF Serge Ibaka (14.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) will likely be guarding Chris Bosh a lot in this one. He’ll need to make Bosh uncomfortable and attempt to keep him away from the basket. SG Dion Waiters (11.0 PPG, 1.4 SPG) has been excellent since being traded to the Thunder, averaging 17.7 PPG over the past three games. He’ll need to continue to score off the bench for a team that doesn't have great scoring depth.

Miami has won three of its past four games and SF Luol Deng (14.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG) has really stepped up his play. Deng had 25 points, six rebounds, four assists, two steals and two blocks in Friday's victory over the Kings. He is getting it done on both ends of the floor, and will need to do a solid job defensively on Kevin Durant on Tuesday. SG Dwyane Wade (22.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.0 RPG) appears to be set to return for Miami after a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury. Wade is this team’s most dynamic scorer and will be a huge boost for the Heat if he is healthy. His ability to get to the basket should free up things for the rest of the Heat’s players and they’ll need him to do a good job on Dion Waiters on defense. PF Chris Bosh (21.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been dominant with Wade out of the lineup. Bosh is averaging 28.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG over the past two contests, and the Heat will need him to stay aggressive even with Wade on the floor. C Hassan Whiteside (7.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG) struggled against Sacramento, finishing with just four points and one rebound in 15 minutes. Whiteside got into foul trouble early and will need to remain disciplined in order to help Miami pick up this victory. When on the court, Whiteside is a relentless rim protector and is averaging 12.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 3.2 BPG over the past five games.


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