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No. 5 Duke favored heavily over Pittsburgh Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/19/2015  at  5:34:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (13-5)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (15-2)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -14.5, Total: 138

After an impressive victory at Louisville two days ago, No. 5 Duke returns home Monday night to face a surging Pittsburgh team.

The Panthers (4-11 ATS) are seeking their third straight win after knocking off both Florida State and Georgia Tech at home last week, but are just 1-4 ATS in ACC play, where they are scoring a subpar 63.2 PPG on 39.6% FG. The Blue Devils (9-8 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid with a 63-52 win at Louisville on Saturday as they outshot the Cardinals 48.8% FG to 29.5% FG. These schools are meeting for just the second time as ACC foes, as Duke rolled to an 80-65 win on Jan. 27, 2014, by knocking down 48% FG and 52% threes (13-of-25), and outscoring host Pittsburgh 46-33 in the second half. Although the Panthers are 0-10 ATS after an SU win this season, they are also 33-17 ATS (66%) as a road underdog under head coach Jamie Dixon. The Blue Devils have struggled to a 67-87 ATS record (44%) versus good ball-handling teams (14 or less TO per game) after 15+ games since 1997, but are 45-27 ATS (63%) at home following a double-digit ACC win in this same timeframe. There are no significant injuries for either school in this game.

Can Duke cover the monster spread on Monday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (58-42) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 65% ATS (13-7) during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (31-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 56% ATS (28-22) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 58% ATS (7-5) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 54% ATS mark (27-23) this season. StatFox Scott is on a 65% ATS (13-7) Best Bets run since Dec. 23 and StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (6-4) in Best Bets since Jan. 6.

Pittsburgh's greatest strength is ball-handling, as the team has averaged a mere 5.0 turnovers per game in the past three contests. The Panthers have a 1.6 Ast/TO ratio (6th in nation), as they dish out 15.5 APG (29th in NCAA) and commit only 10.0 TOPG (10th-fewest in nation). But this is not a potent offensive team with only 67.4 PPG (T-179th in NCAA) on 44.0% FG (150th in nation) and 33.1% threes (210th in NCAA). The Panthers are tough on defense, allowing 61.9 PPG (76th in nation) on 42.8% FG (190th in NCAA) and 31.8% threes (99th in nation), but they have only 4.9 steals per game (32nd-worst in NCAA) compared to 7.1 SPG last season. The reason this team rarely turns the ball over is PG James Robinson (10.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG), whose 2.6 Ast/TO ratio is actually much worse than last season's phenomenal 4.1 Ast/TO mark. Robinson had five assists and zero turnovers versus Duke last season, but he has gone ice-cold with his shooting at 24% FG (7-of-29) and 0-for-9 threes in the past four games. Picking up this scoring slack has been SF Jamel Artis (9.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 36% threes), who scored a career-high-tying 20 points on Saturday, and is averaging 11.8 PPG in his past 10 games. Artis shoots 48% FG (48% threes) in his team's 13 wins this season, but he's making just 33% FG and 15% threes in Pittsburgh's five losses. However, Artis has zero turnovers in five of past six games where he's averaged 28.8 MPG. Like Artis, SG Cameron Wright (9.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) also scored 20 points on Saturday and picked up four steals (both tied career highs), giving him 16.0 PPG on 58% FG in his past three games. The best frontcourt player on the team is leading scorer PF Michael Young (13.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG), who has scored at least nine points in 10 straight games (14.4 PPG). He posted a solid nine points and seven rebounds (3 offensive) versus the Blue Devils last season, but that was when Duke star Jahlil Okafor was still in high school.

The Blue Devils are an excellent offensive team with 82.0 PPG (8th in nation) on 50.2% FG (4th in NCAA) and 36.7% threes (80th in nation) thanks to an unselfish 15.9 APG (24th in NCAA). Like their Monday opponent, they also protect the ball nicely with a 1.41 Ast/TO ratio (18th in NCAA). This Duke team is only average on defense though, allowing 63.6 PPG (129th in nation) on 42.0% FG (147th in NCAA), but does an outstanding job of guarding the perimeter, as it holds opponents to 29.2% threes (30th in nation). This is no longer an ultra-heavy perimeter offense with the presence of freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.6 BPG), who is the biggest reason this team holds a +7.2 RPG margin (24th in nation) compared to a pedestrian +2.0 RPG margin from last season. Okafor has at least seven boards in nine straight games (10.8 RPG) to go along with 10+ points in all 17 games this season. He ranks sixth in the nation in shooting (68% FG), which includes a 71% FG clip over the past seven games. He is joined in the frontcourt by PF Amile Jefferson (8.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) who is making 67% FG (T-7th in nation) and has averaged 16.5 PPG on 81% FG (13-of-16) and 9.5 RPG in the past two games. He also dominated the glass versus Pittsburgh last season with 10 boards (6 offensive) to go along with 14 points on a perfect 5-of-5 FG (4-of-5 FT). The other member of the frontcourt, SF Justise Winslow (11.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG), appears to be hitting the "freshman wall," as he is averaging 5.0 PPG on 23% FG (5-of-22) and 1-of-10 threes in the past three contests. Duke's backcourt has a difficult matchup with Pittsburgh's great ball-handlers, but freshman PG Tyus Jones (9.4 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has also done a great job of running the offense and limiting mistakes. He carries a 3.2 Ast/TO ratio this season and has two or less turnovers in seven straight games. That has made up for his horrendous shooting in ACC play, where he's made only 25% FG and 1-of-10 threes. The team's most consistent scorer in the backcourt is SG Quinn Cook (14.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.3 SPG) who makes 40% threes and a near-automatic 94% FT (33-of-35) this season. He has loved playing at home with 17.0 PPG on 49% FG (43% threes) in his past four home contests, and Cook played well in the win versus Pittsburgh last season toowith nine points, six assists and three rebounds.


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