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Blazers visit Spurs on Friday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 1/16/2015  at  5:43:00 AM
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PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (30-9)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (24-16)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -4.5, Total: 199

The Trail Blazers and Spurs meet on Friday night as they attempt to improve on their standing in the Western Conference.

Portland has put together a great start to the 2014-15 campaign and has quietly rattled off 30 SU wins (23-16 ATS) to sit in second place in the Western Conference. The Blazers come into this tough road game with SU victories in eight of their past 10 games (6-4 ATS) where they have held their opponents to a mere 95.8 PPG in that time. Portland took on the two L.A. teams in back-to-back games most recently, and while it easily got past the Lakers with a 106-94 win as a 5.5-point favorite, it could not sweep the two-game set, falling 100-94 loss as a 3.5-point favorite against the Clippers on Wednesday. It was the Trail Blazers’ offense that struggled in the defeat, making just 40.2% FG, including a meager 6-of-26 three-pointers (23%). San Antonio has had some issues between the health of its players and needing to rest veterans, going 18-21-1 ATS on the year. The team has played better recently though, rattling off five SU wins in its past seven contests (3-4 ATS) while getting 12 or fewer turnovers in four of the games. The Spurs have struggled from the field in each of their past two performances and despite hitting a mere 43.5% FG on Wednesday, they still earned a 98-93 win as 4.5-point favorites on the road against the Hornets. Portland has played very well on the road this season with a 12-5 SU record (10-7 ATS), and the Spurs remain strong at home with a 13-6 SU mark (7-11-1 ATS). These clubs have already met twice this season with the Blazers winning each time by an average of 11.5 PPG. Overall it has been a dead-even matchup over the past three seasons with the teams splitting 14 meetings both SU and ATS. Last season, it was all San Antonio, which went 3-1 (both SU and ATS) while averaging 107.0 PPG. Trends show that the Blazers are a solid 11-2 ATS (85%) in road games after two straight contests where they had five or less steals over the past two seasons while San Antonio is 20-9 ATS (69%) after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons. On the injury front, big men C Robin Lopez (hand) and C Joel Freeland (shoulder) remain out for this one on Portland’s side of the ball. The Spurs will likely be without SG Marco Belinelli (groin), but star SF Kawhi Leonard (hand), who has been out since Dec. 15, is expected to return to the court on Friday.

Who will prevail in this matchup of Western Conference powers? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (102-82-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a stellar 74% ATS (39-14) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott, who is a sizzling 76% ATS (13-4) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (32-25) for the season. StatFox Brian is 64% ATS (23-13) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 57% ATS (33-25) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is 8-2 ATS in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 58% ATS (33-24) this season. StatFox Zach is 9-3 ATS in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2.

Portland has posted some of the better offensive numbers in the league with 103.5 PPG (6th in NBA) behind 45% shooting from the floor. Its defense has been even more impressive though, leading the league in scoring defense (96.5 PPG) on 42.8% FG (2nd in NBA). PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.3 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG) is coming off a monster game against the Clippers (37 points, 12 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal), and has three double-doubles in six January contests. Over his 27 career games (26 starts) against this Spurs team, Aldridge has produced 20.4 PPG (54% FG), 7.4 RPG and 1.3 SPG. PG Damian Lillard (22.0 PPG, 6.2 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG) has hit fewer than 36% of his shots in three of his past five games, but has also sandwiched in two games of 34+ points in that time. He has excelled in his nine career starts against San Antonio with 27.8 PPG (50% FG), 6.4 APG, 5.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG. SG Wesley Matthews (16.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG) had a horrid shooting performance (3-for-13, 8 points) in the loss the Clippers on Wednesday, and has netted just 13.0 PPG over his past five outings. He put forth some solid performances over four starts against the Spurs last season while scoring 18.8 PPG (50% FG) and adding 4.5 RPG with 1.5 SPG.

The Spurs have not been quite the offensive powerhouse that they once were, scoring a pedestrian 101.9 PPG (13th in league) despite some impressive shooting (46.4% FG, 8th in NBA). They also sit near the middle of the pack in scoring defense as they have given up 98.3 PPG (12th in league) while opponents are making just 44.3% FG (10th in NBA). PF Tim Duncan (15.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.0 BPG) has continued to defy his age and is coming off consecutive double-doubles in which he averaged 12.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG in just 28.5 MPG. He had the opportunity to match up with the Blazers three times last season when he netted 15.7 PPG (48% FG), grabbed 8.3 RPG and swatted away 1.0 shots per game. PG Tony Parker (14.8 PPG, 4.7 APG) has had trouble getting back to form since returning from injury with only 9.2 PPG on 38% shooting in his past five games. He hopes to get back some of his production against a Portland team which he has done fairly well against (15.8 PPG, 5.2 APG) in 42 career games. SG Danny Green (12.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG) is getting some big minutes (33.6 MPG in past five games) but is making only 42% of his attempts in January (6 games). Green went off when these two teams last met, scoring 27 points and grabbing 10 boards, but he went for just 10.0 PPG (44% FG) with 4.3 RPG over three games last season.


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