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No. 15 UNC visits NC State on Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/14/2015  at  5:58:00 AM
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 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (12-4)

at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (12-5)

PNC Arena - Raleigh, NC
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3.5

No. 15 North Carolina makes the short trip to Raleigh on Wednesday night when it takes on North Carolina State in a rivalry game between two schools that are both fresh off beating a top-5 program.

One day after the Tar Heels edged then-No. 5 Louisville 72-71 on Saturday, the Wolfpack destroyed then-No. 2 Duke by an 87-75 score. UNC is now 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in its past seven games, while NC State is 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) so far in January. The Heels have been tough away from home this season, going 6-2 (SU and ATS) and outscoring opponents by 10.5 PPG and outshooting them 45% FG to 36% FG, but the Wolfpack are 12-2 SU (6-4 ATS) at PNC Arena where they beat teams by 13.2 PPG and outshoot them 47% FG to 37% FG. North Carolina has dominated this ACC rivalry since 1997 at 30-7 SU (22-14 ATS), which includes going 13-4 SU (12-5 ATS) at NC State. The Heels have won three straight meetings, but the most recent matchup was an 85-84 overtime thriller in Raleigh last Feb. 26 that was decided with 0.9 seconds left in OT when Marcus Paige scored on a drive to the hoop, capping off a 35-point night. UNC is 55-29 ATS under Roy Williams after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers, but the Wolfpack are 8-0 ATS in Wednesday games over the past two seasons. Neither team has any current injuries to be concerned with.

Which confident team will prevail in this in-state rivalry? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 57% ATS mark (45-34) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-5 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (28-17) for the season. StatFox Brian is 9-3 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 57% ATS (26-20) this season, while StatFox Scott is on an 11-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

North Carolina ranks second in the nation in total rebounds (44.8 RPG) and holds a robust +10.7 RPG margin this season. The team's 17.8 APG (8th in NCAA) helps it score 79.6 PPG (17th in nation) on a solid 45.2% FG (98th in NCAA). The defense is able to limit opponents to 64.8 PPG (152nd in nation) on a terrific 36.2% FG (9th in NCAA) and 26.4% threes (6th in nation). This success is partly due to 4.9 blocks per game (54th in NCAA) and 7.3 steals per game (92nd in nation). Offensively, the Heels are very deep, with nine players logging double-digit minutes on a nightly basis. PG Marcus Paige (13.3 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.0 SPG) gets 30.5 MPG, making him the only Tar Heels player receiving 27 minutes per game. While the junior is shooting a subpar 37% from the floor, he knocks down a solid 35% of his three-point tries. Paige has scored 10+ points in six straight games, but has shot below 50% FG in five of those contests. In the Feb. 26 overtime win in Raleigh, Paige scored 31 of his 35 points after halftime, finishing 11-of-21 FG (7-of-12 threes) and adding six rebounds, five assists and two steals. Paige loves feeding the post to 6-foot-9 PF Kennedy Meeks (12.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG), who shoots 59% from the floor, and also 6-foot-10 C Brice Johnson (11.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG), who makes 53% of his shots. Meeks has scored at least seven points in every game this season and has grabbed 10+ rebounds on eight different occasions. Meeks scored eight points and pulled down 10 boards in both meetings during the series sweep of NC State last season. Johnson has averaged nearly a double-double in his past six games with 11.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG in just 24.0 MPG. SGs Justin Jackson (9.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) and J.P. Tokoto (9.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) are both talented scorers, but while Tokoto makes 40% of his threes, Jackson has connected on only 20% from long range (7-of-35). Tokoto had an enormous game at PNC Arena last season with 16 points (7-of-11 FG), 10 rebounds (4 offensive) and five assists.

NC State will have to win this game on the defensive end of the court, and while the team averages a mere 3.7 steals per game (349th in nation), it is great at challenging shots with 6.3 blocks per game (7th-best in NCAA). This leads to the Wolfpack allowing only 63.2 PPG (117th in nation) on 38.4% FG and 31.0% threes, and they rebound well too with a +5.5 RPG margin. Offensively, this is a club that scores a solid 72.4 PPG (81st in NCAA) on 46.4% FG (54th in nation) and 38.1% threes (49th in NCAA), but dishes out a paltry 11.2 APG (281st in nation). Only three NC State players average at least 7.5 points per game. Junior SG Trevor Lacey (16.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.1 APG) does it all for this team, shooting 50% from the floor and 46% from three-point range. After struggling versus a great Virginia defense last Wednesday with nine points (3-of-11 FG), he dropped 21 points on 8-of-13 FG (5-of-7 threes) with four boards in Sunday's win over Duke. Senior SF Ralston Turner (13.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG) also played well on Sunday with 16 points (4-of-7 threes) and four rebounds, and has been sizzling in January with 15.3 PPG on 52% FG and 52% threes (12-of-23). Turner averaged 11.5 PPG (5-of-14 threes) versus UNC last season, including 16 points in the home loss. Sophomore PG Anthony "Cat" Barber (11.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.6 APG) does a nice job of getting to the rim, and has nearly twice as many assists (61) as turnovers (34) this season. He has averaged only 6.3 PPG in his past three games, but is 6-of-13 from the floor. Barber averaged 8.0 PPG with only two assists and two turnovers versus the Tar Heels last season, and should look for his shot more on Wednesday. While the guard play will provide most of the scoring for NC State, the key in this game will be whether 6-foot-9 sophomore PF Kyle Washington (7.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG) can produce in the paint versus the great size of the Tar Heels. Washington is coming had a huge game against Virginia last week where he scored 13 points (6-of-11 FG) with 10 rebounds in 24 minutes of action, then scored nine points with four blocks and three assists in just 20 minutes versus the Blue Devils. Another sophomore, PF Lennard Freeman (3.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who leads the Wolfpack in rebounding despite logging only 18.7 MPG, will throw his 245-pound frame at the UNC frontcourt, and another sophomore, PF Beejay Anya (5.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.1 BPG) has 300 pounds to move opposing bodies around. Despite his size, Anya is incredibly agile with 3.1 blocks per game. He was outstanding in Sunday's win over Duke with 14 points, six rebounds and four blocks in just 19 minutes of action.


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