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Ohio State favored big over Michigan Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/13/2015  at  4:41:00 AM
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MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (10-6)

at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (13-4)

Value City Arena - Columbus, OH
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -10

Bitter rivals meet up for a crucial conference matchup when Ohio State hosts surging Michigan.

The Wolverines went through a dreadful 0-4 stretch from Dec. 6-20, including losses to both double-digit underdogs N.J.I.T. and Eastern Michigan at home. But they have turned it on in Big Ten play with a 3-1 record (SU and ATS), holding Penn State and Minnesota to 40% FG during a current two-game win surge. The Buckeyes started the season 11-2 SU, but are only 2-2 (SU and ATS) in conference action. After shooting a blistering 55% FG in wins over Illinois and Minnesota, they made only 34% FG in Saturday's 69-66 loss at Indiana. Although Ohio State is 12-3 SU (8-7 ATS) at home in this series since 1997, Michigan has won the past three meetings, including the most recent one in Columbus last February by a 70-60 margin. These teams also met in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals last season in a thriller won 72-69 by the Wolverines, who made 12-of-23 threes (52%). Both schools have positive betting trends, as Ohio State is 14-4 ATS (78%) in the past three seasons after committing eight or less turnovers, while Michigan is 30-12 ATS (71%) under head coach John Beilein versus good three-point shooting teams (37%+ threes) after 15+ games into the season. The Wolverines are still without SF D.J. Wilson (knee), while the Buckeyes enter this rivalry game with a healthy roster.

Can Ohio State win easily over its biggest rival on Tuesday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 59% ATS mark (44-31) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-5 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (28-17) for the season. StatFox Brian is 9-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 58% ATS (26-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on an 11-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

Michigan is scoring a pedestrian 66.9 PPG (200th in NCAA) on 43% FG this season, and those numbers are much worse in five non-home games (60.4 PPG on 41% FG). But the team does protect the ball well with only 10.1 turnovers per game (8th-fewest in nation) and makes a solid 36.3% of its three-point shots. The Wolverines also defend pretty well, allowing just 62.4 PPG (101st in NCAA) on 44% FG for the season, and holding its five opponents in non-home games to just 30% threes. Rebounding has been a major issue though, as Michigan is being outrebounded by 1.9 RPG this season, which includes a minus-9.4 RPG margin away from home. The Wolverines don't have much size, blocking a mere 29 shots all season (1.8 BPG, 16th-fewest in nation). Michigan's offense relies mostly on three players who are averaging double-figure scoring. SG Caris LeVert (14.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.0 SPG) is the team's best player in nearly all facets, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, while tying the team lead with six blocks. LeVert is making 40% threes and 80% free throws. LeVert has scored at least 15 points in nine games this season, including two in a row, but was held to nine points on 3-of-11 FG (1-of-6 threes) in Columbus last season before a huge 17-point, 8-rebound performance in the Big Ten semifinals. SF Zak Irvin (14.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG) has also provided consistent scoring this season with 10+ points in 14-of-16 games. He netted 16 points in a combined 33 minutes versus the Buckeyes last season. PG Derrick Walton Jr. (10.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG) has averaged 13.5 PPG (4-of-7 threes) with 5.5 RPG during the team's two-game win streak, but he has just as many turnovers (nine) as assists over the past four contests. However, Walton played very well in last season's series with OSU when he produced 10.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 5.0 APG in the two meetings.

Ohio State's offense is outstanding in all facets, scoring 81.8 PPG (14th in NCAA) on 51.0% FG (4th in nation) and 38.9% threes (36th in NCAA) with 17.3 APG (11th in nation). In addition to this explosive offense, the team plays tough defense, holding opponents to 60.8 PPG (55th in nation) on 39% FG (53rd in NCAA) and 31% threes. At home these numbers improve to 57.3 PPG allowed on 38% FG. The Buckeyes are very opportunistic with 9.2 steals per game (12th in nation) and 5.4 blocks per game (25th in NCAA) this season, and they outrebound opponents by +3.7 RPG. Despite the high-scoring offense, only three OSU players score at least nine points per game. Freshman SG D'Angelo Russell (17.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.8 SPG, 45% threes) has been outstanding all season with a current string of 15 straight double-figure-scoring games, but when he doesn't shoot well, it really affects the team. In the Buckeyes' four losses this season, Russell has made only 25% FG and 17% threes (5-of-29), but in the 13 victories, the first-year player has connected on 54% FG and 56% threes (40-of-72). Sophomore SF Marc Loving (12.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG) has been deadly from long range this season (30-of-60 threes), but missed all five of his threes in Saturday's loss at Indiana, finishing with only seven points on 3-of-11 FG. That snapped a seven-game streak of double-figure scoring for Loving. Senior PF Sam Thompson (10.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is shooting a career-best 50% FG this season despite a horrendous 23% clip from long range (10-of-44). He has been wildly inconsistent with his scoring, as since the start of December, Thompson has netted 12+ points five times, and scored seven points or less in five other contests. Senior PG Shannon Scott (8.4 PPG, 7.2 APG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG) uses his quickness to get wherever he wants on the court, and his great decision-making has led to a 3.0 Ast/TO ratio this season. Scott is coming off a season-high 16 points (7-of-14 FG) at Indiana, but he had only two assists. He had a huge performance in the Big Ten Tournament loss to Michigan last season though, tallying a well-rounded 18 points (7-of-10 FG), six assists, five rebounds and three steals.


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