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No. 2 Duke favored big at NC State Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/11/2015  at  4:15:00 AM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS (14-0)

at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (11-5)

PNC Arena - Raleigh, NC
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -9.5

No. 2 Duke looks to remain one of three unbeaten teams in college basketball on Sunday afternoon when it makes the short trip to Raleigh to visit NC State.

The Blue Devils won each of their first 13 games by double-digits, but had trouble in their second true road game of the season on Wednesday at Wake Forest. They trailed by two points with five minutes remaining, but pulled out a 73-65 win against the 15-point underdog Demon Deacons, falling to 3-6 ATS in the past nine games. The Wolfpack have alternated wins and loss for the past eight games, and are coming off a 10-point loss as a 14-point underdog at Virginia on Wednesday. But now they return home where they are 11-2 SU (5-4 ATS) this season and outshoot opponents 46% FG to 37% FG. The last time these schools met in Raleigh on Jan. 12, 2013, NC State prevailed 84-76, to improve to 7-6 SU (but 4-9 SU) when hosting in this series since 1997. But Duke is 29-5 SU (17-16 ATS) overall in this series since 1997, and has won the past three meetings (2 home, 1 neutral court) by an average of 18.7 PPG. Although the Wolfpack are just 25-44 ATS at home versus good passing teams (16+ APG) since 1997, they are also 8-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss in the past two seasons. Neither school has any significant injuries for this contest.

Can Duke stay unbeaten with another double-digit victory? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (42-30) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-5 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (28-17) for the season. StatFox Brian is 8-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 57% ATS (25-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on a 10-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

Duke's offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 84.4 PPG on 51.8% FG, which both rank third-best in the nation. The club is very unselfish with 16.7 APG (15th in NCAA), and shoots a blistering 38.9% from three-point range (36th in nation). This is also a great rebounding team (+12.0 RPG margin) that is strong defensively too, allowing only 60.9 PPG (57th in NCAA) on 41.3% FG, and it defends long-range shooters as well as any team, holding opponents to a 26.4% clip on three-pointers (4th in nation). The Blue Devils have four players averaging in double-figures, led by freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG) who shoots 68% from the floor, but only 57% from the foul line. He has scored at least 10 points in all 14 games this season, and tallied his third game of double-digit rebounds on Wednesday when he pulled down 11 boards. Senior SG Quinn Cook (14.4 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.4 SPG) shoots 38% from three-point land for the season, but has been cold from long range in the past six games (12-for-39, 31%). However, Cook's scoring has been consistent all season with double-figure points in 13 of 14 contests, and he shot very well against NC State last season with 12.0 PPG on 8-of-16 FG (5-of-10 threes). Freshman SF Justise Winslow (12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG) knocks down 40% of his threes, and is coming off a season-high 20 points at Wake Forest, where he also contributed seven rebounds, three assists and two blocks. Winslow is now averaging16.3 PPG on 49% FG (43% threes) in his past three games. Freshman PG Tyus Jones (10.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG) shoots only 43% from the field, but makes 40% of his threes. While his scoring has gone south in the past three games (5.3 PPG on 5-of-16 FG), he has 20 assists and only six turnovers in his past four contests, improving his Ast/TO ratio to 3.5 for the season (73 Ast, 21 TO). If he continues to make good decisions with the basketball, the Wolfpack could be in big trouble because they do a poor job of forcing turnovers.

NC State's defense averages a mere 3.7 steals per game (3rd-fewest in nation), but is great at challenging shots with 6.1 blocks per game (12th-best in NCAA). This leads to the Wolfpack allowing only 62.4 PPG (104th in nation) on 38.5% FG and 31.5% threes. Offensively, this is a club that scores a solid 71.4 PPG (98th in NCAA) on 45.8% FG (72nd in nation) and 36.6% threes, but dishes out a paltry 10.8 APG (294th in NCAA). Only three NC State players average at least seven points per game. Junior SG Trevor Lacey (16.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.3 APG) does it all for this team, and shoots 49% from the floor and 44% from three-point range. Although he struggled versus a great Virginia defense on Wednesday with nine points (3-of-11 FG), he had scored 14+ points in 10 of his previous 11 games. Senior SF Ralston Turner (13.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is draining 41% of his threes this season and has been sizzling in January with 15.0 PPG on 55% FG and 8-of-16 threes. But Turner played poorly in both meetings with Duke last season, scoring a total of 10 points on 4-of-14 FG (2-of-10 threes). Sophomore PG Anthony "Cat" Barber (11.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.6 APG) does a nice job of getting to the rim, and has nearly twice as many assists (57) as turnovers (30) this season. He has averaged only 7.5 PPG in his past two games, but is 5-of-10 from the floor. He averaged 9.5 PPG on 6-of-11 FG versus the Blue Devils last season, and should look for his shot more. While the guard play will provide most of the scoring for NC State, the key in this game will be whether 6-foot-9 sophomore PF Kyle Washington (6.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) can contain Okafor. Washington is coming off a huge game against Virginia where he scored 13 points (6-of-11 FG) with 10 rebounds in 24 minutes of action. Another sophomore, PF Lennard Freeman (3.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) will throw his 245-pound frame at the Duke superstar. Freeman leads the Wolfpack in rebounding despite logging only 18.9 MPG.


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