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No. 1 Kentucky favored big at Texas A&M Saturday
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Published: 1/10/2015  at  4:35:00 AM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (14-0)

at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (9-4)

Reed Arena - College Station, TX
Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -13.5

No. 1 Kentucky is coming off its most difficult game of the season when it travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Wildcats nearly saw their unbeaten record fall to 23-point underdog Ole Miss on Tuesday in a narrow 89-86 overtime win. That marked the only game that Kentucky has not won by at least eight points this season, but the team is only 8-6 ATS this season. Although it lost four SEC road games last season, the school is 3-0 (SU and ATS) away from home this season where it has outscored opponents by a 26.3 PPG margin. Texas A&M has had some struggles this season, but has been very good at home (7-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). This is the Aggies’ third season in the SEC, and the team is still in search of a marquee victory, as they have beaten only one Top 25 team in the SEC. Although they were blown out 65-44 at Alabama on Tuesday, they are 3-0 (SU and ATS) when coming off a loss this season, winning those contests by 14.0 PPG. Kentucky and Texas A&M played once last season in Lexington, with the Wildcats getting the easy 68-51 victory. They dominated the battle on the glass in that game, outrebounding the Aggies 42-24. The only injury of concern is SF Jalen Jones, who is questionable after missing the last game with a injured ankle.

Will Kentucky roll to an easy victory on a tough environment on Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 60% ATS mark (40-27) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-4 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (28-16) for the season. StatFox Brian is 7-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 56% ATS (24-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on a 10-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

The Wildcats have a lot of guys that can score (76.3 PPG on 46.8% FG), but what makes this team so difficult is the way it defends. Kentucky is currently tied for nation's top scoring defense (50.6 PPG, tied with Virginia), while also leading the NCAA in blocks per game (8.1). Its +15.3 RPG margin is also stellar. With so much size, length and athleticism, it is very difficult to attack the Wildcats off the bounce. Teams can’t focus on just one player to try and slow down offense, because the Wildcats have seven players averaging from 7.6 PPG to 11.2 PPG. Leading the way is SG Aaron Harrison (11.4 PPG, 2.2 APG), and he is the biggest reason why Kentucky was able to hold off Ole Miss. In that game, Harrison poured in 26 points on 5-of-9 shooting from the three-point line, including some big shots in overtime to secure the victory. If he is able to get it going from long distance, Kentucky will become even more difficult to stop. The inside combination of C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and PF Karl Anthony-Towns (8.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG) both have incredible length, but they can also get out and run the floor very well. If there is a weakness on the team, it is the shooting from the foul line, where they make just 67% FT. They shot 70% FT against Ole Miss, but missed some big ones late in the game and in overtime that gave the Rebels a great chance to nearly squeak out the win.

The Aggies have struggled on offense this season, but they do a good job of sharing the ball and making the extra pass. Texas A&M's unselfish passing (15.9 APG) leads to a strong 46.5% FG, but the club scores only 68.1 PPG with a +10.5 RPG margin. This will be key, because if the Wildcats are able to dominate the glass, they are nearly impossible to compete with. Defensively, the Aggies give up only 61.4 PPG, but have very few steals (6.1 SPG) and blocks (2.5 BPG). SF Jalen Jones (13.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 46% threes) is putting together a very solid season, but his status is unknown after sitting out the loss to Alabama with a sprained ankle. SG Danuel House (11.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG) is the only other Aggies player to average more than 10 points, but he is coming off a horrible shooting game against Alabama (1-for-9 from the field). His backcourt mate, PG Alex Caruso (8.2 PPG, 6.4 APG, 3.7 RPG), is the biggest key to this game. He has done a very good job of running the show this season, and he must choose when to attack in the transition, and when to set up the offense. He usually makes the right decision, as his 2.6 Ast/TO ratio for the season has improved to 3.8 over the past four games (30 Ast, 8 TO). Caruso's 2.2 SPG also rank third in the SEC, showing that he has the ability to pressure the opposing guards as well.


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