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No. 5 Louisville visits No. 18 UNC Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/10/2015  at  4:45:00 AM
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LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (14-1)

at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-4)

Dean E. Smith Center - Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3.5

Two of the most storied programs in college basketball history will meet for the first time as conference foes when No. 5 Louisville visits No. 18 North Carolina on Saturday.

The Cardinals have started out their first season in the ACC with two straight conference wins, topping Wake Forest by nine points on the road before a six-point win hosting Clemson on Wednesday. But both of those games were ATS defeats, making them 2-9-1 ATS in the past 11 contests. Louisville has played just two true road games in the 2014-15 campaign, but its only SU loss this season has been versus No. 1 Kentucky. For the season, the team is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) away from home where it has outscored opponents by 13.3 PPG. The Tar Heels (10-5 ATS) have beaten three schools ranked in the top-25 when they met (Ohio State, Florida and UCLA), but they have already lost twice at home this season, including a 71-70 defeat to 8-point underdog Notre Dame on Monday. However, UNC has been outstanding after losses this season, going 3-0 (SU and ATS) and winning those games by 29.7 PPG. The Heels have owned this series recently, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in the past six meetings, which includes a 93-84 neutral-court win last season on Nov. 24, 2013 in the only meeting with Louisville that took place in the past six seasons.

Which school will pick up the crucial ACC victory on Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 60% ATS mark (40-27) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-4 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (28-16) for the season. StatFox Brian is 7-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 56% ATS (24-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on a 10-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

Louisville has scored a healthy 73.7 PPG this season, but its lack of passing (12.1 APG) has led to a woeful 43.0% FG clip (29.5% threes). But defensively, the Cardinals are still among the best in the nation with 55.5 PPG allowed on 35.9% FG (28.1% threes). They also outrebound opponents by a hefty +14.6 RPG margin. Louisville relies on basically four players to do its scoring, as the No. 5 scorer on the team averages only 3.8 PPG. SG Terry Rozier (17.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.3 SPG) is the scoring leader who has dropped 15+ points in eight straight games, averaging 20.5 PPG during this stretch. Although he shot poorly versus Clemson on Wednesday (5-of-15 FG, 0-for-5 threes), Rozier still added six rebounds, four assists and three steals in the win. C Montrezl Harrell (15.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 60% FG) opened ACC play with a monster game of 25 points and 13 boards, but tallied just six points and six rebounds in Wednesday's win. Harrell struggled against UNC last season, scoring just five points before fouling out, but he also grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive) and blocked two shots. He could have another hard time scoring over Carolina's great size in the paint. PG Chris Jones (12.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 APG) is shooting a woeful 33% FG (31% threes), but he is heating up with 22 points in two straight games, where he's also picked up 12 assists, eight steals and eight rebounds. Jones had a huge offensive game versus the Heels last season with 20 points (4-of-8 threes) and four rebounds. Like Jones, SF Wayne Blackshear (12.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is also shooting poorly this season (38% FG, 30% threes), especially in ACC play where he's averaging 7.5 PPG on 4-of-16 shooting, including 0-for-5 from inside the three-point arc.

North Carolina's offense is certainly explosive with 80.1 PPG on 45.3% FG thanks to 17.8 APG, but its long-range shooting is below average (30.5% threes). Despite the fast-paced offense, the team defense has remained strong, allowing only 64.4 PPG on 35.4% FG and 26.1% threes. Like Louisville, UNC's rebounding is also elite, with a hefty +17.0 RPG margin. Carolina's success relies greatly on the performance of junior PG Marcus Paige (13.5 PPG, 3.6 APG). In the team's four defeats, Paige has made just 33% FG and 12-of-36 threes (33%) compared to a 39% FG clip (37% threes) in the 11 victories. Paige was the best offensive player on the court when his team faced Louisville last season, scoring 32 points on 9-of-12 FG (3-of-5 threes) and 11-of-11 FT. Paige has two big bodies in the paint to feed with 6-foot-9 PF Kennedy Meeks (12.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG) who makes 59% FG, and 6-foot-10 C Brice Johnson (11.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) who makes 53% FG. Both Meeks and Johnson were strong off the bench for UNC in last season's victory over the Cardinals. Meeks racked up 13 points (5-of-6 FG), 12 boards and seven assists in that game, while Johnson dropped 13 points on 6-of 7 FG with five rebounds and two blocks. Junior SF J.P. Tokoto (9.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) does it all for this team and also shoots 40% from three-point range. In his past two home games, Tokoto has averaged 15.5 PPG (11-of-19 FG) and 7.5 RPG.


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