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Patriots try to avoid upset Saturday vs. Ravens
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/10/2015  at  5:27:00 AM
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BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-6)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)

AFC Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Line: New England -7, Total: 47.5

The Ravens look to win a second straight playoff game on the road when they head to Foxboro on Saturday for a meeting with the Patriots.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Baltimore went into Pittsburgh on Saturday and beat the Steelers 30-17 as a 3-point road underdog. The club has won four of its past five games (2-3 ATS), but will now visit a New England team that beat them 41-7 in Maryland last season. Prior to that loss, the Ravens captured the 2013 AFC Championship in Foxboro by a 28-13 margin. They also took down the Patriots in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs following the 2009 season, prevailing 33-14. Those two results account for half of New England's home defeats in postseason history, as the franchise in 15-4 SU all-time in home playoff games. The Patriots are 6-2 SU when hosting Baltimore since 1995, but are just 3-3-2 ATS in those contests. The Under is also 6-2 in these eight games, including three in a row. Over the past three seasons, the Ravens are 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. New England, meanwhile, is 8-0 ATS in the past two seasons following a loss, and 12-3 ATS at home after having won five or six of its previous seven games in the past three seasons. DE Chandler Jones (hip) is questionable for the Pats, but both he and WR Julian Edelman (thigh) are expected to play. DT Timmy Jernigan (foot) and OT Eugene Moore (ankle) are both questionable for Baltimore.

Can the Ravens pull off another upset in Foxboro? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 playoffs. The experts started the postseason a perfect 4-0 ATS. StatFox Gary predicted the Panthers to cover, making him a stellar 68% ATS (23-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Scott forecasted a big win for the Colts, and is now 55% ATS (34-28-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3. StatFox Brian nailed both ATS winners in the NFC (Panthers and Lions) during Wild Card week, predicting a 10-point Carolina win on an actual 11-point margin, and also predicted the Detroit-Dallas score to be 23-20 for a final score that was 24-20. Brian is now 63% ATS (10-6) in NFL Best Bets since Week 14.

The Ravens went into Pittsburgh last Saturday and beat their division rivals behind some excellent play on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they held the Steelers to 5-of-16 on third downs, and they also forced three turnovers. They’ll need to do a lot of the same in New England if they are going to advance any further. Offensively, QB Joe Flacco (3,986 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) came through for Baltimore once again in the postseason. Flacco threw for 259 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. He is a completely different quarterback at this time of the year, throwing for 9.0 YPA, 13 TD and 0 INT during a current five-game playoff win streak. He will need to continue to limit his mistakes going forward against an opportunistic Pats defense with 25 takeaways this season. WR Steve Smith Sr. (79 rec, 1,065 yards, 6 TD) was Flacco’s favorite target last week, catching five passes for 101 yards. TE Owen Daniels (48 rec, 527 yards, 4 TD) also came up big with four catches for 70 yards, while WR Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 11 TD) and TE Crockett Gillmore (10 rec, 121 yards, 1 TD) both caught touchdowns for Baltimore. These guys were all able to find space against Pittsburgh, but it will be a lot tougher against a physically-dominant Patriots secondary on Saturday. Baltimore will really need more from RB Justin Forsett (1,266 rush yards, 8 TD) this weekend. Forsett had just 36 rushing yards and a lost fumble against Pittsburgh. He was reliable all season long, but it means nothing if he isn’t producing in the playoffs.

The Patriots earned a bye during the regular season, and rested their starters for the majority of Week 17, so they’ll head into their home matchup with the Ravens extremely fresh. QB Tom Brady (4,109 yards, 33 TD, 9 INT) played some excellent football during the regular season, but he’ll now face a Ravens team that has gotten the best of him at times throughout his career. Brady is 6-3 SU against Baltimore in the last five seasons, but he has thrown for just nine touchdowns and an alarming 10 interceptions in those games. Although he has an NFL record 18 postseason wins and is 12-3 at home in the playoffs, he is only 1-2 at home versus Baltimore in the postseason with 3 TD and 7 INT. He’ll need to take care of the football in this game, as the Ravens can capitalize on any short-field opportunities New England gives them. TE Rob Gronkowski (82 rec, 1,124 yards, 12 TD) will be the guy Brady is looking at often in this game. He’s now caught a touchdown in three straight games, and the Patriots will likely need him to score again on Saturday as well. The team could also really use a big performance out of WR Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 4 TD). Edelman did not play in Weeks 16 or 17 for New England, but he should be healthy heading into this one. Prior to his thigh injury, Edelman had caught a touchdown in two consecutive games and he is one of the most sure-handed players on the team. RB LeGarrette Blount (266 rush yards, 2 TD) will be counted on to wear out this defense with his bruising style of running. He rushed for 62 yards on just 10 carries in Week 17 and should be feeling very good after resting up this week. Defensively, this Patriots secondary will need to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable throwing the ball deep.


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