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No. 8 Arizona favored big over rival ASU on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/4/2015  at  4:26:00 AM
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ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (8-5)

at ARIZONA WILDCATS (12-1)

McKale Center - Tucson, AZ
Tip-off: Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -14, Total: 138

No. 8 Arizona looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts rival Arizona State on Sunday night.

The Sun Devils (6-6 ATS) have had a rough season, but their defense has been outstanding during a modest two-game win streak, allowing only 50.0 PPG on 33% FG. This is a great sign for bettors, as the school is 11-2 ATS (85%) in the past three seasons after allowing 55 points or less. But both of those games were at home, and Arizona State is a winless 0-4 SU (1-2 ATS) outside of Tempe this season where it allows a hefty 76.0 PPG on 49.3% FG. The Wildcats (6-7 ATS) haven't played since Dec. 23 when they fell 71-67 at UNLV, but they are 34-17 ATS (67%) after playing a road game under head coach Sean Miller. Now they return home where they have been destroying opponents all season. Not only is Arizona 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) on its home court, but it has won these games by an average score of 83 to 60 and has outshot visitors 53% FG to 38% FG. Although the Wildcats have won four straight home meetings in this series, the Sun Devils are 8-9 ATS in Tucson since 1997, and they also won the most recent meeting on Feb. 14, 2014 by a 69-66 score in double overtime. There are no significant injuries to either school for Sunday's meeting.

Can Arizona blow out its in-state rivals on Sunday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 63% ATS mark (29-17) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 8-1 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 67% ATS (26-13) for the season, while StatFox Scott is on an 8-2 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23. StatFox Zach and StatFox Brian are both 54% ATS (21-18) on college hoops Best Bets this season.

Arizona State is a solid offensive team with 73.5 PPG (65th in nation) on 46.7% FG (52nd in NCAA) and 39.1% threes (29th in nation), and shares the ball nicely with 14.8 APG (67th in NCAA). Defensively, the Sun Devils rebound adequately (36.4 RPG, 118th in nation) and allow a solid 63.2 PPG (119th in NCAA). The offense has gotten a huge boost from SF Savon Goodman (15.8 PPG, 63% FG, 8.0 RPG) who gained eligibility on Dec. 16. In his past three games, the sophomore has 18.7 PPG (63% FG) and 10.3 RPG, and his strength (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) will be difficult for the Wildcats to match up with. Another JUCO product, PG Gerry Blakes (12.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.0 APG), has scored in double-figures in eight of the past 10 games, including three 20-point efforts. He is joined in the backcourt by SG Shaquielle McKissic (10.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG), who is the senior leader of the team, and knocks down 40% of his threes. McKissic has scored 13+ points in four of his past five games, but scored only 7.5 PPG on 5-of-15 FG versus Arizona's excellent defense last season. He'll need to have a much better performance for his team to pull off the major upset on Sunday night.

Arizona's offense is extremely efficient with 76.3 PPG (34th in nation) on 50.1% FG (11th in NCAA) and a solid 37.4% threes, thanks largely to an unselfish 15.3 APG (53rd in nation). The club also plays great defense in holding teams to 60.3 PPG (52nd in NCAA) on 39.4% FG and 32.1% threes with 8.4 SPG (38th in nation). Freshman swingman Stanley Johnson (14.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 43% threes) is the one Wildcats player who scores more than a dozen points per game, and he has netted at least 10 points in 12 straight contests. PF Brandon Ashley (11.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 53% FG) has four straight double-figure scoring games where he's averaged 12.0 PPG and 7.3 RPG. Ashley had a well-rounded 10 points, five boards and four assists in his one meeting with ASU last season. SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.2 PPG, 54% FG, 6.3 RPG) has been slumping, with the same amount of fouls (nine) as points in the past two games, but he played very well versus the Sun Devils last season with 20 points (7-of-11 FG) and 16 rebounds in the two meetings. But the player who is most important to this offense is senior PG T.J. McConnell (7.6 PPG, 6.3 APG, 4.5 RPG), who has an impressive 3.4 Ast/TO ratio this season. This includes 32 assists and just seven turnovers (4.6 Ast/TO ratio) in the past four games.


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