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Colts try to add to Bengals playoff misery on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/4/2015  at  5:31:00 AM
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-5-1)
at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

The Bengals look for their first playoff win since 1990 (six straight postseason losses) when they visit the Colts on Sunday for a Wild Card round matchup.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Cincinnati is coming off a Week 17 loss in Pittsburgh where the team was a 3-point road underdog in the game, but it had won-and-covered in the previous two contests. Indianapolis toppled the Titans 27-10 as a 7-point road favorite for its fifth SU victory in six games. Earlier in the season, the Colts crushed the Bengals 27-0 as 3-point favorites at home. Cincinnati had won-and-covered in two straight road games in this series before that shutout, but Indianapolis has won eight of its past 10 home meetings. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-1 ATS off a division game, but are 0-6 ATS in road contests after covering the spread in two out their previous three games in that timeframe. The Colts, meanwhile, are 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past two years. Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (concussion) is questionable for this game after getting hit in the head against the Steelers in Week 17, and two of his teammates are also questionable, CB Terence Newman (illness) and WR James Wright (knee). Indianapolis has five questionable players for Sunday, TE Dwayne Allen (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), LB Bjoern Werner, G Joe Reitz (ankle) and OT Gosder Cherilus (groin).

Can the Bengals end their long playoff win drought on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (22-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (33-28-2) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in NFL Best Bets over the past four weeks. In last year's postseason, the four experts combined for a 17-6-2 Best Bets record (74%), going 91% (10-1) in Totals and 58% ATS (7-5-2) in Best Bet picks.

The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Steelers in a game that could’ve given them the AFC North crown. QB Andy Dalton (3,398 pass yards, 19 TD, 17 INT) threw for 244 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the game. Dalton has looked a lot more confident in the pocket over the last two weeks, but the team has little to no chance of advancing to the next round if he doesn’t limit his turnovers. He threw for just 126 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the Oct. 19 loss to the Colts, and is 0-3 in his playoff career with 1 TD and 6 INT in those defeats. Dalton could have even more trouble in this game if top WR A.J. Green (69 rec, 1,041 yards, 6 TD) isn’t cleared to play by Sunday. Green had eight catches for 82 yards against the Steelers last week, but he lost a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter. If Green doesn’t play, RBs Jeremy Hill (1,124 rush yards, 9 TD) and Giovani Bernard (680 rush yards, 5 TD) will need to be more effective for Cincinnati. Hill rushed for 100 yards against the Steelers, and Bernard added seven receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown in the game. Both of these guys do different things for this offense, and both will have a major role against the Colts. Cincinnati will need its defense to hold up, as the unit is allowing 27.5 PPG over the past two weeks and needs to play much better against this potent Colts offense.

Indianapolis will enter this game extremely confident after beating the Bengals 27-0 earlier in the season at Lucas Oil Stadium. QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) threw for 344 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. He’s also coming off a 160-yards, 2-TD performance against the Titans in limited action in Week 17. Luck will need to be on his game on Sunday or the team will have no chance of advancing, as the running game hasn’t been there since RB Ahmad Bradshaw (425 rush yards, 2 TD) went down. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) played against the Titans after hurting his groin a few weeks ago and was a non-factor, finishing the game with no catches on three targets. Indianapolis will need Hilton to be healthy for this game, or Andrew Luck will have to turn to his other targets that he doesn’t trust quite as much. TE Coby Fleener (51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TD) will be the one that Luck relies on most, as he is coming off of a performance against the Titans where he caught five catches for 56 yards and two touchdowns. WR Reggie Wayne (779 rec yards) and TE Dwayne Allen (8 rec TD) are less than 100 percent healthy, which puts more pressure on both Hilton and Fleener. The Colts defense could ultimately decide whether or not they win this game. They allowed just 10 points against the Titans last week, but 42 against the Cowboys the week before. They’ll need to give Luck a chance to win this game, so getting the Bengals offense off the field is crucial.


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