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No. 1 Alabama faces No. 4 OSU in Thursday's playoff
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/1/2015  at  6:04:00 AM
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OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (12-1)
vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-1)

Sugar Bowl
Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -8.5, Total: 58.5

The second college football semifinal on Thursday in New Orleans will feature a pair of national powerhouses when No. 1 Alabama faces No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is familiar with Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide from his years coaching Florida, but his Buckeyes are down to their third quarterback, with Cardale Jones set to make his second career start on New Year's Day. Ohio State overwhelmed Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, amassing 558 yards in a 59-0 win. But the Badgers' best win on the year was Minnesota at home, while Alabama steamrolled the SEC. The Tide allowed 630 yards in a 55-44 Iron Bowl victory over Auburn, but they held every other opponent to 23 points or less. Their offense also totaled 97 points in season-ending wins over Auburn and Missouri, but the Buckeyes have thrived against top-notch offenses, going 29-11 ATS (73%) versus teams averaging 6.24+ yards per play since 1992. However, OSU is only 1-10 ATS after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game since Meyer became the head coach. Other than the Buckeyes missing their top two quarterbacks (Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett), they have no significant injuries. Alabama is pretty healthy too, but could be without LB Denzell Devall (foot), who is considered questionable.

Can Alabama reach the national championship game with a sizable victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Ohio State is an excellent rushing team with 260.8 YPG (11th in nation), but it has great balance with the ability to also throw the football with 246.8 YPG (52nd in FBS). This balance has led to a lofty 45.2 PPG this season, good for fifth-best in the nation. Sophomore QB Cardale Jones (375 pass yards, 11.0 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT) didn't look like a third-stringer in the Big Ten title game versus Wisconsin, completing 12-of-17 passes for 257 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He'll rely on his top two pass catchers when dropping back, WRs Devin Smith (799 rec yards, 11 TD) and Michael Thomas (680 rec yards, 8 TD). The speedster Smith averages a whopping 26.6 yards per catch this season, while Thomas also has big-play ability, as evidenced by a 79-yard TD reception this year, and his 15.8 yards per reception is pretty strong too. Speaking of strong, RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,402 rush yards, 6.5 YPC, 12 TD) has been a beast all season, rumbling for 220 yards on 11.0 YPC in the Big Ten title game. That was his seventh 100-yard performance on the ground this season, and he has scored at least one touchdown nine times. Defensively, the Buckeyes allow only 21.2 PPG (21st in nation), as they are strong both versus the run (140 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC) and through the air (188 passing YPG, 5.8 YPA). The unit has forced at least two turnovers on nine different occasions this year.

Like its Thursday opponent, Alabama also has tremendous balance on offense with 281.0 passing YPG (22nd in nation) and 209.5 rushing YPG (34th in FBS), leading to 37.1 PPG (16th in nation). QB Blake Sims (3,250 pass yards, 9.2 YPA, 26 TD, 7 INT) has had a tremendous season with 10 games of at least two touchdown passes. He has also run for 321 yards (4.4 YPC) and 6 TD. He has certainly been helped by WR Amari Cooper (115 rec, 1,656 yards, 14 TD), who finished third in the Heisman voting for good reason. Cooper has eclipsed 200 receiving yards three times this season, and has scored multiple touchdowns in four separate instances. He has seven 100-yard performances in all, and 11 games with at least eight receptions. When the Crimson Tide run the football, they give the pigskin to either RBs T.J. Yeldon (932 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 10 TD) or Derrick Henry (895 rush yards, 5.6 YPC, 10 TD). Yeldon has four games of at least 110 rushing yards, while Henry has three 110-yard efforts. Alabama's defense has remained elite, giving up only 16.6 PPG (3rd in nation). The Tide allow a meager 88 rushing YPG on 3.2 YPC, but have been burned through the air at times, surrendering 224 passing YPG on 6.4 YPA. They also don't create a ton of turnovers, with eight games of 0-or-1 takeaways this season.


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