Rose Bowl
Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -8, Total: 71

No. 2 Oregon looks to hand No. 3 Florida State its first loss in more than two seasons when these two schools meet in the first-ever college football playoff game at the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.

Oregon comes in after avenging its season's lone defeat, beating Arizona 51-13 in the Pac-12 Championship. Since losing that regular-season game on Oct. 2, the Ducks are a perfect 8-0 (SU and ATS), with QB Marcus Mariota leading the offense to 48.0 PPG and 554.3 YPG. Florida State will be an underdog for the first time in the Jameis Winston era. After 14 turnovers in their final five regular season games, the Seminoles didn’t give it away once in the ACC title game, a narrow 37-35 win over Georgia Tech. The defense has been bend-don’t-break, allowing 400+ yards seven times, but 30+ points only four times. Florida State is only 3-10 ATS this season, but is 22-9 ATS (71%) since 1992 after failing to cover the spread in four of its previous five games. However, Oregon is 9-0 ATS under second-year head coach Mark Helfrich after scoring 50+ points in its previous game. Both schools have some injury concerns, as FSU key RB Karlos Williams (concussion) and LB Terrance Smith (knee) are both questionable for Thursday. The Ducks will dearly miss top CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (knee), and could also be without three questionable players -- RB Thomas Tyner (ankle) and OLs Hroniss Grasu (leg) and Andre Yruretagoyena (ankle).

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Florida State is a much better passing offense (299.8 YPG, 14th in FBS) than it is on the ground (134.8 rushing YPG, 104th in nation), which leads to a strong 34.8 PPG (29th in FBS). Sophomore QB Jameis Winston (3,559 pass yards, 8.4 YPA, 24 TD, 17 INT) has had a down season after a brilliant freshman campaign of 4,057 passing yards, 10.6 YPA, 40 TD and 10 INT, which was capped off by 237 passing yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in the final BCS National Championship win. But Winston has thrown for at least one touchdown in all 12 wins this year, with six games of more than 300 passing yards. Seniors WR Rashad Greene (93 rec, 1,306 yards, 7 TD) and TE Nick O'Leary (47 rec, 614 yards, 6 TD) are two of the nation's best players at their respective positions. But Winston has also relied heavily on a pair of underclassmen in freshman WR Travis Rudolph (459 rec yards, 3 TD) and sophomore WR Jesus Wilson (455 rec yards, 4 TD). Freshman RB Dalvin Cook (905 rush yards, 5.8 YPC, 9 TD) will likely see a larger workload with senior RB Karlos Williams (609 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 10 TD) questionable to play. Florida State's defense isn't as stingy as last year's unit, but is still pretty strong. The 'Noles allow only 23.0 PPG (30th in nation) and 378 total YPG (5.3 yards per play), broken down between 218 passing YPG (7.1 YPA) and 160 rushing YPG (3.9 YPC). Florida State does a great job of forcing turnovers, racking up multiple takeaways nine times this year. But dealing with middling ACC offenses is one thing, while trying to slow down the high-octane Ducks presents a much greater challenge.

Oregon ranks 11th in the nation passing (308.9 YPG), but it also rushes for 237.3 YPG (22nd in FBS), leading to the third-most points in the nation (46.3 PPG). Junior QB Marcus Mariota (3,783 pass yards, 10.2 YPA, 38 TD, 2 INT) was a runaway Heisman winner after completing 68.3% of his passes with only two picks on 372 throws. He also ran for 669 yards (5.7 YPC) and 14 touchdowns, but that wasn't even tops on his own team. Freshman RB Royce Freeman (1,299 rush yards, 5.6 YPC, 16 TD) was consistently excellent all season, ending the year with eight straight games of at least 98 rushing yards where he tallied 12 total touchdowns. Mariota threw multiple TD passes to seven different teammates, while five Ducks surpassed 400 receiving yards on the year. Junior WR Byron Marshall (61 rec, 814 yards, 5 TD) eclipsed 130 receiving yards on three different occasions, while catching at least four passes in nine of his past 10 contests. WRs Devon Allen (684 rec yards, 7 TD), Dwayne Stanford (557 rec yards, 6 TD) and Darren Carrington (539 rec yards, 2 TD), and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TD) were all valuable members of this potent offense. Defensively, the Ducks give up only 22.5 PPG (29th in nation), but they do allow 414 total YPG (5.4 yards per play), broken down between a hefty 260 passing YPG (6.6 YPA) and 154 rushing YPG (4.1 YPC). This is also a very opportunistic unit with at least two takeaways in 10-of-13 games this season, but the absence of senior CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (2 INT, 9 PD) certainly weakens this defense.