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Mississippi State meets Georgia Tech Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2014  at  5:45:00 AM
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GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (10-3)
vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (10-2)

Orange Bowl
Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Mississippi State -6.5, Total: 61

No. 7 Mississippi State attempts to shake off its late-season missteps, which cost the school a spot in the playoffs, with a win over No. 12 Georgia Tech at the Orange Bowl on Wednesday night.

Besides the Yellow Jackets two losses against North Carolina teams (UNC and Duke), this program dominated their other 10 regular-season opponents by an average of 16.8 PPG, which earned them a spot in the ACC championship game. They were unable to get it done there though, as they were narrowly defeated by a score of 37-35 as 3.5-point underdogs against defending champion Florida State. Overall, Georgia Tech is 9-4 ATS on the season and was able to grab four victories as the underdog, including a 30-24 overtime road win at Georgia in the season finale. The Yellow Jackets forced 17 turnovers in their final five games of the regular season while scoring 41.0 PPG in that time. Georgia Tech has not done well in its past four bowl game attempts, as the team is 1-3 (both SU and ATS) while absorbing a 25-17 loss while giving 2.5 points against Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl last year. The Bulldogs squandered a chance at being in the playoffs after losing two of their final three games to Alabama and Ole Miss. Previous to that, they were 9-0 SU (5-4 ATS) while beating their opponents by an average of 20.1 PPG. The offense was clicking on all cylinders over that time, as they scored 30+ points in seven games, but managed a putrid 18.5 PPG in their two losses, both of which were on the road. Mississippi State hasn’t played many teams of note in its past three bowl games, as it faced Wake Forest, Northwestern and Rice dating back to 2011, and was 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in that time with the loss coming at the hands of the Wildcats in the 2012 Gator Bowl. These programs last met in 2008 and 2009, with the Yellow Jackets taking both games (SU and ATS), as they won by an average of 21.0 PPG. Some compelling trends for Wednesday include that Georgia Tech has gone 6-0 ATS after having won five or six of its past seven games this season while the Bulldogs are a solid 6-1 ATS in December games since 1992. While Mississippi State has no notable injuries, the Yellow Jackets' leading receiver, WR DeAndre Smelter (knee), has been downgraded to doubtful, which is the same designation that teammates RB Tony Zenon (knee) and LB Jabari Hunt-Days (eligibility) have received.

Which school will earn its 11th win of the season on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Georgia Tech used its triple-option offense to rush for 333.6 YPG (3rd in FBS) while throwing for a mere 135.2 YPG (122nd in nation), but still scored 37.0 PPG (18th in FBS). QB Justin Thomas (1,594 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) threw just one pick over the past four contests while tossing 3 TD, but failed to reach 140 passing yards in any of those four games, averaging 86.8 passing YPG. His real talent comes from his ability to run, and he is the team’s leading ball carrier with 965 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 5 TD, while getting 100+ yards four times on the year. Both HBs Zach Laskey (788 rush yards, 9 TD) and Synjyn Days (753 rush yards, 6 TD) provided the team with at least 135 carries, and collectively averaged 5.2 YPC. Laskey missed three games this year, but was still able to record two triple-digit rushing performances and scored four of his nine touchdowns over the final two contests. The loss of WR DeAndre Smelter (715 rec yards, 7 TD) is huge, and it will be up to WR Darren Waller (328 rec yards, 5 TD) to take over the No. 1 receiving role despite having just three games where he eclipsed 50 yards this season. The Yellow Jackets’ defense did enough to keep them in games while allowing opponents to score 25.1 PPG (48th in nation) as they ranked in the middle of the pack nationally with giving up 396.4 YPG of total offense. LBs Paul Davis (108 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Quayshawn Nealy (90 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT) provide a lethal tandem up the middle, and should be a key factor against the Bulldogs in this one.

Mississippi State had one of the highest-octane offenses in the nation behind 266.3 passing YPG (37th in nation) and 239.8 rushing YPG (20th in FBS) as they scored 37.2 PPG (14th in nation). QB Dak Prescott (2,996 pass yards, 24 TD, 10 INT) was tremendous in connecting on 61% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and threw zero interceptions in three of the final four games. He tossed multiple TD passes in seven of the team’s 12 games, and was a threat with his legs, as Prescott rushed for 939 yards (4.8 YPC) and 13 TD on the year. Joining him in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson (1,128 rush yards, 11 TD) who managed to hit the century mark in rushing four times, but failed to scored a touchdown while going for 44.3 YPG in the past four contests. He’s a huge part of the passing attack as well, with 370 yards on 28 catches (13.2 avg) and one score. There were six different players on the team who tallied at least 20 receptions, while 12 players caught at least one TD pass. The best of the group was WR De’Runnya Wilson (575 rec yards, 7 TD) who had his best performance in the loss to Ole Miss at the end of the year with 117 receiving yards and a touchdown. The defense for this program was mostly outstanding in 2014, holding opponents to a mere 19.4 PPG (10th in FBS) behind a strong run defense (126.5 YPG, 25th in nation). LB Benardrick McKinney (61 tackles, 3 sacks) and DL Preston Smith (9 sacks, 44 tackles, 2 INT, 1 TD) will put this Georgia Tech triple-option offense to the test with their stellar play.


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