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No. 10 Arizona clashes with No. 20 Boise State Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2014  at  5:01:00 AM
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BOISE STATE BRONCOS (11-2)
vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (10-3)

Fiesta Bowl
University of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ
Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -3, Total: 67.5

No. 20 Boise State looks to take down another high-profile team in a bowl game when it matches up with No. 10 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl on Wednesday.

It was another easy year for the Broncos as they were able to produce double-digit victories for the eighth time in nine seasons. They played in only one contest where they were not favored and it came when they were given 10 points against Ole Miss in their season opener and lost by a score of 35-13. Besides that, they were at least 3.5-point favorites in each of their contests, including giving double-digit points on nine separate occasions. Boise State has been able to rattle off eight consecutive SU victories (4-4 ATS) by an average of 19.3 PPG and took the Mountain West title with a 28-14 win as a 23-point favorite against Fresno State. The school also did a great job with ball security in turning it over mere six times in the final seven games combined. It seems as if the Broncos are taking a tour of the Pac-12 with their recent bowl games as they have played Oregon State, Washington, Arizona State and Utah in their past four playoff appearances while going 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in those matchups. The Wildcats put together a huge 2014 campaign and made it to the Pac-12 championship after earning double-digit victories, but going just 5-8 ATS. In order to get to the championship, they had to defeat some tough competition, including four big wins against Colorado, Washington, Utah and Arizona State before being trounced 51-13 by Oregon as 14.5-point underdogs in the conference championship game. Their turnover ratio was huge for Arizona down the stretch as the school gave up the pigskin a mere 11 times over the final eight games while forcing opponents into 18 turnovers. The Wildcats have played some rather weak opponents in their past two bowl games, as they defeated Nevada and Boston College in consecutive years, but are just 1-3 ATS in their past four postseason attempts. Trends show that Boise State is 34-14 ATS (71%) off three straight wins against conference rivals since 1992, while Arizona is a solid 17-6 ATS (74%) in road games after being outrushed by 125+ yards in its previous game over the same timeframe. The biggest injury omission in this game came back in October when the Broncos lost WR Matt Miller (ankle) for the season, but DE Mat Boesen (disciplinary) is out and TE Connor Peters (leg) is questionable for Boise State. The Wildcats come into this one with a clean bill of health.

Which school will capture the Fiesta Bowl victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Boise State managed to perform so well this year due to its great offense which totaled 278.2 passing YPG (26th in FBS) and 217.8 YPG rushing YPG (30th in nation) as the team put up the ninth-most points in the nation (39.8 PPG). QB Grant Hedrick (3,387 pass yards, 22 TD, 13 INT) had four 300-yard performances during the regular season but fizzled down the stretch as he averaged 194.8 YPG in the final four games. He was one of the more accurate passers in the nation though, as he completed 71% of his attempts for 8.9 YPA while also getting it done as a runner (563 rush yards, 8 TD). Alongside Hedrick in the backfield is HB Jay Ajayi (1,689 rush yards, 25 TD) who ranked fifth in the nation in rushing yards as he averaged 5.2 YPC while scoring the nation's second-most touchdowns on the ground. He was a true workhorse while carrying the ball 25 times per game and finished under 110 yards just once in the past eight games. WR Thomas Sperbeck (678 rec yards, 3 TD) was the most explosive receiver on the team as he gained 17.4 yards per catch, while WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (585 rec yards, 7 TD) led the team with 68 receptions as a possession receiver who averaged a mere 8.6 yards per catch. The defense did not perform quite as well, and despite playing in the weak Mountain West Conference, it allowed opponents to score 26.5 PPG (64th in FBS). However, the Broncos were solid against the run (141.5 YPG, 37th in FBS) with LB Tanner Vallejo (85 tackles, 14 TFL, 1 INT, 1 TD), DL Kamalei Correa (10 sacks, 49 tackles) and DB Darian Thompson (61 tackles, 7 INT, 1 TD, 5 TFL) leading the charge.

Arizona’s innate ability to pass the ball (277.7 YPG, 29th in FBS) while adding 183.8 rushing YPG (44th in nation) enabled the team to score 34.8 PPG (28th in FBS). QB Anu Solomon (3,458 pass yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) played above expectations as a freshman while averaging 266 passing yards per game and throwing just three picks in his final eight contests combined. He did look a little out of sync in the past three games though, as he threw for a mere 133.3 YPG and two touchdowns. Another freshman who is making a huge impact on this team is HB Nick Wilson (1,289 rush yards, 15 TD) who had averaged 163.3 YPG over the team’s four-game winning streak prior to the blowout loss in the Pac-12 championship game, and has surpassed 100 rushing yards seven times on the year. He gained a solid 5.9 YPC while rushing the ball 16.7 times per game this season and totaled eight scores in the final four contests. WR Cayleb Jones (902 rec yards, 9 TD) adds to the list of explosive underclassmen making a name for themselves as a part of this program. Jones posted three games of triple-digit receiving yards on the year, but gained a meager 38.7 YPG with two scores in his past six performances. The Wildcats need to do well on offense, due to their defense allowing the opposition to score 27.5 PPG (73rd in FBS) while giving up the ninth-most passing yards (279.1 YPG) in the nation. If they do hope to have success on this side of the ball, it will be up to LB Scooby Wright III (153 tackles, 14 sacks) and S Jared Tevis (119 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT) to lead the way.


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