Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium - Nassau, Bahamas
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Line: Western Kentucky -4, Total: 68.5

Western Kentucky attempts to win its first bowl game since 1963 when it squares off with Central Michigan on Wednesday afternoon.

The Chippewas had a rough start to the 2014 season with SU losses in three of their first five games (1-4 ATS) but were able to get things back on track against conference foes. They were 5-3 SU against MAC teams and won three of their final four contests despite committing 10 turnovers in that timeframe. CMU has been impressive in recent bowl visits while winning its past two contests back in 2009 and 2012 by an average of just 3.0 PPG. Western Kentucky also had a very murky start to the year, as it was 3-5 (both SU and ATS) heading into the final month of the season before reeling off four straight wins to reach just its second bowl game since 1963. The Hilltoppers offense caught fire in those four games with 49.8 PPG, as they were 3-1 ATS and defeated their opponents by an average of 18.8 PPG. Their final win of the season was easily their most impressive, as they grabbed a victory against undefeated, 23.5-point favorite Marshall by a score of 67-66 in a game where the two programs combined for 1,446 yards of total offense. This Christmas Eve contest is a rematch of the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl where Central Michigan went in as a 6-point underdog and managed a three-point victory (24-21). It was a clean game, as neither team committed a turnover, while the Chippewas outgained the Hilltoppers 393-327. Trends show that Central Michigan is a perfect 8-0 ATS in non-home games after playing two straight conference games in the past three seasons, while Western Kentucky has gone 16-4 ATS (80%) after two or more consecutive ATS wins since 1992. The only injury of note to keep an eye on for this game is to HB Thomas Rawls (leg) of the Chippewas who was hurt in his last contest, but is considered probable for Wednesday.

Can Western Kentucky end a 51-year bowl drought on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks through Monday, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

Central Michigan didn’t really excel in any part of its offensive game with 222.0 passing YPG and 158.7 rushing YPG, as it scored only 25.2 PPG. QB Cooper Rush (2,664 pass yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) threw at least one interception in each of his past six games, but was able to compile 239 passing YPG, as he twice threw for three touchdowns in that time. Over the course of the year, he successfully completed 64% of his passes for 7.9 YPA and surpassed 30 attempts five different times. HB Thomas Rawls (1,103 rush yards, 10 TD) struggled with injuries all season long, missing three games and carrying the ball only three times in two other instances. In his other seven performances, he averaged 154.7 YPG (5.3 YPC) and eclipsed 220 yards twice. WR Titus Davis (843 rec yards, 9 TD) was the leading receiver for this team, as he managed 15.6 yards per catch and gained 100 yards in five of his nine games played. While they weren’t too great on the offensive side of things, the Chippewas defense was solid in limiting opponents to 23.2 PPG (32nd in nation) behind just 119.8 rushing YPG (18th in FBS). Expect LB Justin Cherocci (107 tackles, 4 sacks) to be heavily involved in each play as the leader of this side of the ball for Central Michigan.

Western Kentucky won its games with one of the best passing offenses in the nation, as it gained 365.0 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while adding 160.3 rushing YPG and scoring 44.0 PPG (6th in nation). QB Brandon Doughty (4,344 pass yards, 44 TD, 10 INT) continues to carry this program, and he had five games with at least four touchdown passes this season. He is also coming off his best performance of the year against Marshall as he threw eight touchdowns (and 2 INT) while gaining 491 yards on 34-of-50 passing (68%) in an overtime thriller. HB Leon Allen (1,490 rush yards, 12 TD) was a workhorse, as he ran the ball 21.6 times per game while averaging 5.8 YPC. This includes 237 yards (7.2 YPC) and one touchdown against Marshall on Nov. 28. Overall he had six games where he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground and had one contest where he rumbled for an amazing 345 yards (10.5 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times against Army. WR Taywon Taylor (739 rec yards, 7 TD) led the team in yards, as he gained a solid 16.8 yards per catch, while WR Jared Dangerfield (738 rec yards, 10 TD) was the volume receiver with a team-high 64 receptions, and had five scores over the final three games of the year. Unfortunately, the Hilltoppers defense was not up to the task this season in allowing opponents put up 501.8 YPG of total offense (6th-worst in FBS) and 39.3 PPG (also 6th-worst in nation). LB Nick Holt (103 tackles, 7 sacks) and DB Brandon Leston (57 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) were a couple of the bright spots on this defense, and will really need to pick it up in order for this team to win.