Hawaii Bowl
Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Rice -2.5, Total: 60

Fresno State looks for its first bowl win since the 2007 season when it faces Rice in the Hawaii Bowl on Wednesday night.

After starting the season with a 3-6 SU record (4-5 ATS), the Bulldogs just barely reached bowl game eligibility with victories in three of their final four games. In two of those final three wins, they were actually considered underdogs against both San Jose State and Nevada, but could not get a win in the Mountain West Conference championship game against Boise State as they absorbed a 28-14 loss as big 23-point underdogs. Fresno State has lost each of its past five bowl games dating back to the 2008 campaign while going 0-4 ATS in the past four with losses by an average of 22.0 PPG. Rice had a tough schedule to start the year as they suffered defeats against both Notre Dame and Texas A&M on the road, but finished the season with a 7-2 record (SU and ATS) over the final nine games. The school was favored in each one of its wins over that time, but capped off the year with an embarrassing 76-31 blowout loss against Louisiana Tech as 7-point underdogs. The Owls are also coming off a poor showing in last year’s bowl appearance when they took on Mississippi State at the Liberty Bowl as 7-point underdogs and suffered a 44-7 loss. Before putting money on this one, bettors should know that Rice is a mere 3-15 ATS (17%) in road games after having won five or six of its previous seven games since 1992 while also being a perfect 6-0 ATS off one or more straight Overs in 2014. There are no serious injuries for either school that should affect the outcome of this game.

Can Fresno State put an end to its bowl losing skid? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks through Monday, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

The Bulldogs offense ranks in the top-60 in both passing (233.8 YPG) and rushing (183.9 YPG) as they average 28.1 PPG. QB Brian Burrell (2,576 pass yards, 22 TD, 16 INT) was seemingly under pressure at all moments while being sacked 31 times over the course of the year, which forced him to throw five interceptions in the final two contests. Luckily, Burrell had the ability to get out of the pocket and gain some yards with his legs, as evidenced by his 328 rushing yards (3.2 YPC) and three touchdowns on the ground. HB Marteze Waller (1,292 rush yards, 11 TD) surpassed 110 yards in seven of the team’s final 10 games as he averaged a solid 6.2 YPC on the season. He had 16.2 rushes per game as one of the key factors for this team, but failed to get into the end zone in two of the final three contests. WR Josh Harper (1,072 rec yards, 7 TD) is a great possession receiver who is looking at playing in the NFL next season after grabbing a team-high 86 receptions. He had 10 catches for 131 yards in the loss to Boise State at the end of the year on Dec. 6. The defense has really held back this program in allowing opponents to score 32.6 PPG behind 462.3 YPG of total offense. The trio of LBs Kyrie Wilson (88 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 INT, 1 TD), Karl Mickelson (85 tackles, 1 TD, 2 INT) and Donovan Lewis (55 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) along with DL Tyeler Davison (57 tackles, 7 sacks) could be a game-changing group on this side of the ball.

Rice was never much of a threat offensively as it gained 223.6 YPG through the air and 170.3 YPG on the ground while scoring 28.7 PPG. QB Driphus Jackson (2,524 pass yards, 21 TD, 8 INT) had multiple touchdown passes in 7-of-12 games this year as he completed 57.3% of his passes for 8.2 YPA. He had a season-high 337 yards and 4 TD in the embarrassing loss to Louisiana Tech in the season finale, but also threw three picks in an attempt to make a comeback during the blowout. HB Jowan Davis (910 rush yards, 6 TD) was a workhorse with 19.3 rushing attempts per game, but gained a mere 3.9 YPC on those totes. He has bee able to get it going in spurts though, with three 100-yard rushing performances and multiple scores in two different contests. Both WRs Jordan Taylor (781 rec yards, 6 TD) and Mario Hull (539 rec yards, 7 TD) provide Jackson with red-zone threats. Taylor, who missed the first three games of the year, averaged 97.5 YPG over the final eight contests. The Owls defense was also underwhelming, as they gave up 30.3 PPG and the same amount of yards (462.3 YPG) as their opponent. DLs Zach Patt (29 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and Brian Nordstrom (43 tackles, 7.5 sacks) create a nice pass rush, but there are really no other game-changers for this unit.