Heart of Dallas Bowl
Cotton Bowl Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Louisiana Tech -6, Total: 58

After winning two straight games to reach six victories, Illinois tries to extend the win surge at the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Louisiana Tech on Friday.

The Illini really struggled in the first 10 games of the year, as they went 3-7 ATS and managed just four SU wins. They put things together at the right time though, with victories as the underdog against both Penn State and Northwestern, and winning by an average of 8.0 PPG. Part of their success was being able to secure the football, as they did not turn over the pigskin in any of the final three contests. They last made a bowl in back-to-back seasons (2010 and 2011) while winning each time (SU and ATS) by an average of 15.0 PPG. The Bulldogs did well enough to earn a spot opposite Marshall in the C-USA championship game after being 7-1 SU in conference action, and finished a strong 10-3 ATS overall. They nearly earned an upset win against the Thundering Herd on Dec. 6 as 8.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss while forcing four turnovers, but could not get past the double-digit win program. Much of Louisiana Tech's solid play stemmed from its ability to create turnovers, as it racked up the most takeaways in FBS with 40. The Bulldogs' last postseason appearance came in 2011 at the Poinsettia Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs against TCU when they wound up on the wrong side of a tight contest, losing 31-24. These teams did meet recently in 2012 and played an ugly 52-24 game with Louisiana Tech coming away the victor as the 3-point road underdog. There were nine total turnovers between the two clubs, as Illinois fumbled five times while adding an interception. Some trends to keep an eye on for Friday include that the Fighting Illini are 7-5 ATS (58%) after a game where they committed one or less turnovers in the past three seasons, while being a poor 21-42 ATS (33%) after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers since 1992. There are no significant injuries to either school in this one that could affect the outcome of the game.

Which school will capture the Heart of Dallas Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks through Monday, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

Illinois had a solid passing attack this season (243.2 YPG), but failed to do much of anything with its ground game (117.1 YPG, 15th-worst in FBS) and scored a mere 26.6 PPG. QB Reilly O’Toole (1,049 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) started for this team in each of the final two wins while averaging 152 YPG with 4 TD and 1 INT. He also made a big difference with his ability to run the ball as he had 147 rushing yards on 21 attempts (7.0 YPC) in the Nov. 29 win over Northwestern on the road. HB Josh Ferguson (685 rush yards, 8 TD) has averaged 4.9 YPC on the year, and he is coming off a solid performance (95 rush yards, 2 TD) against Northwestern to cap off the 2014 regular season. He was a big part of the receiving game as well with 44 catches for 373 yards (8.5 avg) and 2 TD. The toughest matchup on this offensive unit is WR Mike Dudek (965 rec yards, 6 TD) who had three scores in the final three games and managed two games over 100 yards on the year. LB Mason Monheim (108 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 TD) and DB Zane Petty (104 tackles) have done their best to solidify this defense, but it has just not worked, as the unit is surrendering 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in nation) and 464.3 YPG of offense (14th-worst in FBS).

Louisiana Tech’s offense looked solid for a majority of the season, finishing with 37.5 PPG (13th in FBS) behind 242.6 passing YPG and 151.1 rushing YPG. QB Cody Sokol (3,189 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has been great in his senior year with three games over 300 passing yards in the final six games while performing poorly in the C-USA championship game against Marshall. In that contest he was a mere 7-for-20 (35%) for only 72 yards and tossed an interception. HB Kenneth Dixon (1,236 rush yards, 21 TD) averaged 133 YPG over the past three games while getting into the end zone 10 times in the final four contests. Dixon was able to get some big plays in the passing game as well this season, totaling 306 yards on 26 catches (11.8 avg) and five touchdowns. WR Trent Taylor (814 rec yards, 9 TD) was the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense and scored seven of his nine touchdowns over the final five games. He also had two performances with 110+ receiving yards. The defense for the Bulldogs did well this season in giving up 25.2 PPG to their opponents, as they were tremendous against the run (117.9 YPG, 15th in FBS). DBs Xavier Woods (62 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Adairius Barnes (44 tackles, 5 INT, 4 TFL) were able to create plenty of turnovers, and will once again be spotlighted as they look to make some big plays.