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BYU, Memphis look to extend win streaks Monday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2014  at  3:44:00 AM
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BYU COUGARS (8-4)
vs. MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-3)

Miami Beach Bowl
Marlins Park - Miami, FL
Kickoff: Monday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -2, Total: 56

Memphis looks to win its first bowl game since the 2005 campaign when it takes on BYU in Monday's Miami Beach Bowl.

The Cougars had a roller coaster of a season. They looked ready to compete at a top level after going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) to kick off the year, but hit a wall though, and absorbed defeats in each of the next four contests (both SU and ATS) while losing by an average of 13.5 PPG. BYU was able to regroup with a four-game SU winning streak (3-1 ATS) to finish off the year and capped it all off with a very impressive 42-35 road win at California as 3-point underdogs. This program has had no trouble getting to bowl games in recent history and has been to one each season since head coach Bronco Mendenhall took over in 2005. In that time the Cougars are 6-3 SU while covering the spread in three of the past four attempts. The Tigers started the year with just three wins over their first six games, but turned things around in a big way with SU victories in each of their past six contests (3-3 ATS) while defeating their opponents by an average of 22.3 PPG and committing a mere five turnovers. Memphis has had trouble getting to a postseason game with its most recent one coming back in 2008 where it lost to South Florida by a score of 41-14 as a 10.5-point underdog and last won against Akron in the 2005 Little Caesars Bowl. Before putting money on this one, bettors should know that the Tigers are a poor 11-26 ATS (30%) after two or more consecutive wins since 1992 while BYU is a dreadful 0-6 ATS in the past three seasons on the road after having won four or five of its previous six games. The Cougars lost both starting QB Taysom Hill (leg) and HB Jamaal Williams (knee) for the season a while ago, and two other key players are also likely missing with DB Craig Bills (neck) doubtful, and WR Nick Kurtz (foot) out, while Memphis comes into this game with no significant injuries.

Which school will extend its long win streak on Monday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 75% ATS mark (6-2) in College Football Best Bets in the final three weeks of the regular season, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks, including bowl games. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 5-0 ATS record in all picks, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 3-2 ATS in bowl picks.

BYU is one of the best teams in the nation when its offense is clicking. The school has produced 272.9 passing YPG (33rd in nation) and 190.5 rushing YPG (42nd in FBS) while scoring 36.2 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Christian Stewart (2,273 pass yards, 22 TD, 6 INT) has been spectacular as he fills in for Hill while throwing 19 TD and just two interceptions over his past six games. He has been expected to do tons of work in this high-octane offense, as he’s attempted 37.5 passes per game while being successful on 58.7% of them for 7.6 YPA. It has also been up to HB Paul Lasike (353 rush yards, 5 TD) to take on a larger role with starter Jamaal Williams being out for the season. Lasike has averaged 4.9 YPC while having double-digit attempts just three times. He’s been able to find the end zone four times in the past four games and can contribute to the passing attack, as he has 248 receiving yards (10.3 avg) and two touchdowns on the season. The duo of WRs Mitch Mathews (840 rec yards, 8 TD) and Jordan Leslie (756 rec yards, 5 TD) gives Stewart a few top-flight options in the passing game while Mathews has gone over 100 yards in two of his past three performances. On the other side of the ball, the defense has not lived up to expectations, as it is allowing 25.3 PPG and giving up a mere 117.5 rushing YPG (14th in FBS). DL Bronson Kaufusi (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and LB Zac Stout (59 tackles, 7.5 TFL) have been a big reason that BYU does so well against the run and will be leaned on come Monday.

The Tigers bring a balanced offense into this one, as they have gained 230.8 YPG through the air (63rd in nation) and 191.8 YPG on the ground (41st in FBS) while scoring 34.7 PPG (30th in nation). QB Paxton Lynch (2,725 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) has proven to be one of the best players under center in this program’s history while racking up a school record 28 total TD and has nine touchdowns with no interceptions over the team's current six-winning streak. He’s contributed quite a bit in the run game as well with 283 rushing yards (2.8 YPC) and a team-high 10 TD on the fround. HB Brandon Hayes (900 rush yards, 5 TD) has 17+ attempts in each of the past five games while averaging 5.2 YPC in that time. There are five different receivers on the team with at least 25 catches and 240 yards, while six players have multiple TD catches. WR Keiwone Malone (480 rec yards, 2 TD) has been the top guy from this group with 480 yards and two touchdowns, which both came in the final game of the year. The defense for this team has been stout all season in limiting opponents to a meager 17.1 PPG (5th in FBS) behind a mere 343.3 total YPG (22nd in nation). LB Tank Jakes (85 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles and sacks, and will be a key factor in Monday’s bowl game.


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