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Patriots seek payback Sunday vs. Dolphins
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/14/2014  at  5:52:00 AM
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MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-6)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -7.5, Total: 47.5

The Dolphins look to keep their slim playoff chances alive with a win over the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this game:

Miami hosted the Ravens in a must-win game last week, but was unable to come away with a victory, losing 28-13 as a 3-point favorite. New England, meanwhile, went into San Diego and picked up a 23-14 victory as a 4-point road favorite. The Dolphins hosted the Patriots in the 2014 season opener and won 33-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. Miami has now won-and-covered in its past two games against the Patriots, but both of those contests took place in Miami. New England has been dominant at home in this series, with its last SU loss being September 21, 2008. Since 1992, the Patriots are just 13-26 ATS in home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. New England is, however, 29-13 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent in that timeframe. The club is also 9-2 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the past two years. Louis Delmas (knee) is out for the year for Miami, while four other key defenders are questionable for Sunday -- CBs Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder) and LBs Jelani Jenkins (foot) and Koa Misi (hamstring). New England's roster is pretty full, with only DT Dominique Easley (knee) and OL Cameron Fleming (leg) showing up on the injury report as questionable.

Can the Dolphins score a rare win in Foxboro on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Dave is 55% ATS (28-23-1) in Best Bets during the past 12 weeks, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (27-23-1) in Best Bets since Week 3. to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 63% ATS (10-6-1) in his past five weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Brian is on a 4-1 ATS run.

The Dolphins could not pick up a big victory at home against the Ravens last week and will now likely need to win out in order to have a chance at making the playoffs. QB Ryan Tannehill (3,044 pass yards, 21 TD, 9 INT) completed 70% of his passes in last week's game for 227 yards with a touchdown and no picks, but the Dolphins were unable to put up points when they needed them. Tannehill will now need to have a huge performance for his team to have a chance to win in New England. He threw for just 178 yards in a 33-20 win over the Pats in Miami and had two touchdowns and just one pick in that game. RB Lamar Miller (782 rush yards, 6 TD) ran effectively in the win over the Patriots in Week 1, galloping for 59 yards on 11 carries and also catching four passes for 19 yards and a touchdown. Miller got just 12 carries for 53 yards in a loss to the Ravens last week. He’s been productive when touching the ball, but the Dolphins will need to feed him more often going forward. WRs Jarvis Landry (63 rec, 573 yards, 5 TD) and Mike Wallace (57 rec, 700 yards, 7 TD) are both capable playmakers, but it will be tough for them to shake the excellent New England corners.

The Patriots were unable to beat the Packers two weeks ago, but they rebounded with a big win in San Diego on Sunday night. QB Tom Brady (3,560 pass yards, 30 TD, 7 INT) continues to play at an elite level, throwing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and just one interception in the win over San Diego. Brady had a lousy game against Miami to open the season (4.5 YPA, 69.7 passer rating), but he is 5-0 against the Dolphins when playing in New England over the past five years. In those games, he’s thrown for 247.0 yards per game with seven total touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’ll be pumped up for a chance to redeem himself for the Week 1 loss. Another player who has really done well for the Patriots is RB LeGarrette Blount (276 rush yards, 2 TD). Blount ran the ball very effectively against the Chargers last game with 66 yards on just 20 carries. He also caught two passes for 11 yards. Blount is the type of no-nonsense runner that the Patriots love to have, and he is thriving with the team after being cut by the Steelers. However, the New England defense has been absolutely incredible at times over the past few weeks. The club is allowing just 16.3 PPG over the past three weeks and will be really tough to beat if opponents can reach 20 points.


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