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Saints and Bears collide Monday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/15/2014  at  5:35:00 AM
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-8)
at CHICAGO BEARS (5-8)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 54

Two underperforming teams clash on Monday night when the Saints visit the Bears.

New Orleans hit rock bottom last week in a 41-10 home loss to the Panthers, dropping the club to 1-4 (SU and ATS) in the past five contests. Chicago, meanwhile, suffered a 41-28 home loss to the Cowboys last Thursday. The Saints have won-and-covered in both meetings with the Bears since 2011. The most recent matchup was a 26-18 victory in Chicago on Oct. 6, 2013. Prior to that win, the Bears had won three straight home games SU in this series. New Orleans has allowed at least 32 points in each of its past three games, and Chicago hasn’t been much better, surrendering 34+ points in each of the past two contests. All of those games have gone Over the total. Since 1992, the Saints are 15-4 ATS in road games after allowing 175+ rushing yards in their previous game. They are also 55-36 ATS on the road after one or more consecutive ATS losses in that timeframe. The Bears, however, are 18-7 ATS at home after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse since 1992. The Saints have no new injuries to note, but the same cannot be said for the Bears. While WR Brandon Marshall (ribs) and LB D.J. Williams (neck) are both done for the season, S Chris Conte (back), DE Cornelius Washington (chest), DT Jeremiah Ratliff (knee), LB Darryl Sharpton (hamstring) and even K Robbie Gould (quad) are all questionable for Chicago on Monday night.

Which team will secure the victory on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Dave is 55% ATS (28-23-1) in Best Bets during the past 12 weeks, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (27-23-1) in Best Bets since Week 3. to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 63% ATS (10-6-1) in his past five weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Brian is on a 4-1 ATS run.

The Saints played their worst game of the season last week, getting blown out at home against a miserable Panthers team. QB Drew Brees (3,983 pass yards, 28 TD, 12 INT) completed just 59.2% of his passes in the game for 235 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He should be able to get things going in this one though, as he’ll be facing a Bears defense that is allowing 265.5 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). If he is to snap out of his recent funk, however, he’ll need TE Jimmy Graham (68 rec, 695 yards, 9 TD) to do so as well. Graham has caught just three passes in two of the past three games, and Brees is used to being able to just lob the ball up for his superstar pass-catcher. Graham has not been the same since injuring his shoulder earlier in the season. One player that could be a real difference maker in this one is RB Mark Ingram (810 rush yards, 6 TD). Ingram is a powerful runner that is capable of tiring out a defensive line. He carried the ball 10 times for 43 yards in last week's blowout loss to the Panthers, but rushed for 122 yards in the week before against Pittsburgh. New Orleans will need to establish its run game, and pounding the rock with Ingram early would really benefit the team. Defensively, simply holding its opponent under 30 points would be an accomplishment, as the Saints have not done so in the past three games.

The Bears were unable to beat the Cowboys in Chicago last week, but they’ll now turn their attention to picking up a victory over the struggling Saints. QB Jay Cutler (3,446 pass yards, 26 TD, 15 INT) was actually pretty good in the loss against the Cowboys last Thursday, throwing for 341 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Saints are surrendering 265.2 yards per game through the air this season (29th in NFL), so Cutler should be able to find some success in Monday's matchup. One thing he’ll need to get over is the loss of season-ending loss of starting WR Brandon Marshall (61 rec, 721 yards, 8 TD), who broke his ribs against the Cowboys last week. With Marshall out, Cutler will be even more reliant on WR Alshon Jeffery (73 rec, 949 yards, 8 TD). Jeffery has been on a tear recently, catching five touchdowns in the past four games and eight in the past 10 contests. Jeffery should be able to find plenty of space against this porous secondary, and Cutler will be looking his way more often than usual. Without Marshall, however, this team would be very wise to pound the football with RB Matt Forte (854 rush yards, 6 TD). Forte has gotten just 18 carries over the past two games, and that will need to change, as he is the team’s biggest weapon.


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