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Seahawks seek 10th win of season Sunday vs. 49ers
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/14/2014  at  5:12:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-6)
at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -10, Total: 37.5

The Seahawks look to improve their playoff position when they host the struggling 49ers on Sunday.

San Francisco had a golden matchup with the Raiders in a must-win game in Oakland, but it was upset 24-13 as 8.5-point favorites. The Seahawks, meanwhile, picked up a statement win in a 24-14 victory over the Eagles in Philadelphia, making them 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in the past seven contests. These teams met just two weeks ago on Thanksgiving, when Seattle rolled to a 19-3 victory as a 1-point road underdog. That gives the club four SU wins in the past five meetings with San Francisco, and it has now covered in seven straight in this head-to-head series. The Seahawks are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when hosting the 49ers since 2009. But the Niners are 8-0 ATS after having lost two of their previous three games over the past two seasons, and 19-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. The Seahawks, however, are 17-7 ATS in home games over the past three seasons, and 58-34 ATS in December games since 1992. San Francisco has a host of injuries to deal with, such as CBs Chris Culliver (knee) and Tramaine Brock (hamstring), NT Glenn Dorsey (forearm), C Marcus Martin (knee), G Mike Iupati (elbow) and OT Anthony Davis (concussion), who are all questionable for this game. Seattle has only two players on the injury report with C Max Unger (knee) and third-string TE Cooper Helfet (ankle) both listed as questionable.

Who will win this key NFC showdown on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Dave is 55% ATS (28-23-1) in Best Bets during the past 12 weeks, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (27-23-1) in Best Bets since Week 3. to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 63% ATS (10-6-1) in his past five weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Brian is coming off a 3-1 ATS showing in Week 14.

The Seahawks rolled to another victory last week, beating the Eagles by 10 on the road behind the stellar play of RB Marshawn Lynch (1,042 rush yards, 9 TD). Lynch rushed for 86 yards in the game and also caught five passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. He rushed for 104 yards on 20 carries when these teams met on Thanksgiving and will need to run the ball effectively to open things up for the passing game. QB Russell Wilson (2,729 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) has been taking great care of the football in recent weeks, as he hasn’t thrown an interception in four games. Wilson is also coming off a performance in which he threw for 263 yards with two touchdowns and rushed for another 48 yards and a touchdown. He threw for 236 yards with a touchdown in the 19-3 win over the 49ers on Thanksgiving, and should be able to play even better in Seattle than he did San Francisco. However, this defense has been the real story for the Seahawks, who have allowed just 20 total points over the past three weeks combined. Their secondary is as strong as ever, allowing just 190.4 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and the run-stop unit has limited teams to 84.1 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL). Seattle is going to make it extremely tough on a sputtering San Francisco offense to make plays.

The 49ers are going to have a hard time getting over a loss to Oakland that pretty much ruined their chances of making the NFC playoffs. They’ll need to win out to even give themselves the slightest chance, but it’s going to start with a must-win game in Seattle. QB Colin Kaepernick (2,910 pass yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) has been atrocious in recent weeks. He threw for just 121 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions against this same Seahawks team on Thanksgiving, and followed it up with 174 yards with one touchdown and two picks against the Raiders. Kaepernick will need to take better care of the ball going forward, but it will be difficult to do so against the best passing defense in the NFL. Although it won’t be much easier to get it going against this elite running defense either, the 49ers have a better chance of beating the Seahawks with RB Frank Gore (775 yards, 2 TD) than they do Kaepernick. Gore was bottled up by Seattle in Week 13 (28 yards on 10 carries), but ran very effectively against the Raiders, piling up 63 yards on just 12 carries (5.3 YPC). San Francisco will need to feed him more often in this game. Defensively, the 49ers are still pretty strong, allowing only 211.2 passing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 97.2 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). However, Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr did pick apart their secondary last week, and they’ll need to shore things up back there to deal with the dual-threat Wilson.


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