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Heat continue road trip Wednesday at Nuggets
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/10/2014  at  5:06:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (10-11)

at DENVER NUGGETS (9-12)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -5.5, Total: 203.5

The Nuggets look to end their four-game losing skid with a win over the visiting Heat on Wednesday.

Miami is in the midst of a five-game road trip and enters this game fresh off a 103-97 victory in Phoenix on Tuesday night. That win snapped a four-game losing skid (both SU and ATS). Denver, meanwhile, lost 112-107 as a 10-point underdog in Toronto on Monday, making the club 2-2 ATS during its four straight SU defeats. Last season, both of these teams won SU when they played each other on the road. The Heat have won two straight games SU in Denver, but the Nuggets covered in one of those games. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 18-12 ATS after a game where it made at least 50% of its three-point shots, and is also 4-1 ATS this season when playing 6+ games in 10 days this season. The Nuggets, however, are 5-1 ATS when playing 6+ games in 10 days this season. They are also 17-9 ATS when playing as a home underdog over the past three seasons. PF Kenneth Faried (back), PG Nate Robinson (back) and C JaVale McGee (leg) are all questionable for Denver, while Miami is expected to have the services of PF Josh McRoberts (knee).

Can the Nuggets end their losing skid with a convincing victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a stellar 62% ATS record (61-38) in featured games this season, the five experts have also caught fire with a collective 70% ATS mark (30-13) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Gary is 7-1 ATS during this timeframe to give him a 61% ATS record (19-12) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Brian is 8-1 ATS since Nov. 29 to improve to 58% ATS (18-13) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Scott and StatFox Dave are both 6-3 ATS.

The Heat went into Phoenix on Tuesday and hit on all cylinders against a Suns team that likes to get up and down the floor. Miami went 9-of-17 from three-point range in the game, and C Chris Bosh (21.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG) was on fire. Bosh finished the game with 34 points (14-of-21 FG, 4-of-6 threes), nine rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes of play. He should be in for yet another big game against a Nuggets team that could be without Kenneth Faried. Another player who really thrived against the Suns was SF Luol Deng (14.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG). Deng finished the game with 23 points, four rebounds, a steal and two blocks. He was incredibly efficient with his shots and Miami will need him to knock down some looks against another up-tempo Denver team. SG Dwyane Wade (21.6 PPG, 5.9 APG, 1.1 SPG) has been playing excellent basketball recently with 23.4 PPG over the past five contests. Wade had 16 points, six rebounds and five assists in 34 minutes against the Suns. He is looking extremely healthy recently and has played 34+ minutes in each of the past four games. He will need to be extremely effective on both ends of the floor for the Heat to win in Denver.

The Nuggets have dropped four straight games and must turn things around with a home matchup against a tired Miami team. Possibly playing without PF Kenneth Faried (11.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG), Denver will need a really big night from PG Ty Lawson (16.2 PPG, 10.4 APG, 1.6 SPG). Lawson’s playmaking has been truly incredible as of late, racking up double-digits in assists in nine straight contests and 12 of the past 14. He should be able to keep up his excellent play against a Heat team that is weakest at the point guard position. Since Faried has gone down, C Timofey Mozgov (10.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) has been playing very well. Over the past two games, Mozgov is averaging 14.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 1.5 BPG. He could see a lot of time on Bosh in this one, so he’ll need to be disciplined and stay out of foul trouble. SF Wilson Chandler (14.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) will also need to be on his game in this contest. He is averaging 20.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG over the past five games, and if he could add a consistent source of scoring, this Nuggets team will be much better off going forward. SG Arron Afflalo (14.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG) could be an X-factor in this game, as he’ll need to make Wade work extremely hard on both ends of the floor.


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