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Marshall favored big in C-USA title game vs. Louisiana Tech
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/6/2014  at  5:19:00 AM
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LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS (8-4)
at MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (11-1)

Conference USA Championship Game
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Marshall -12.5, Total: 68.5

After taking a loss in last season’s C-USA Conference Championship game, the Marshall Thundering Herd return with victory on their mind as they take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech made it to the conference championship game in just their second season in the C-USA as they went a solid 7-1 in conference play with their one loss coming in an overtime game against Old Dominion on November 22nd. Overall they are 9-3 ATS in 2014 and once again were able to cover in their most recent game when they put up huge numbers as seven-point favorites at home against Rice. They won the contest 76-31 as they gained 677 total yards of offense, including 408 yards through the air, and forced their opposition into four turnovers. Marshall was looking for their first perfect regular season since 1999 when they hosted Western Kentucky last week after taking their first 11 games by an average of 28.5 PPG and were 7-4-1 ATS. Unfortunately the Hilltoppers had other plans for the season and ended up taking down the Thundering Herd by a score of 67-66 in OT in the final game of the year. The teams played at a blistering pace and combined to put up a total of 1,446 yards of offense while a two-point conversion in the first OT clinched the victory for Western Kentucky. The two QBs combined for 15 TD passes, but it was the four INTs that Marshall’s QB Rakeem Cato threw that may have been the difference in the outcome. These two teams will be facing each other for just the second time in their histories with the first game coming way back in 1942 as the Bulldogs shutout the Thundering Herd 26-0 at home. Bettors should keep an eye on some trends which include that Louisiana Tech is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season when playing with six or fewer days of rest while also being a poor 7-21 ATS (25%) coming off a blowout win by 21 points or more against a conference rival since 1992. Injuries could be a concern in this one for Marshall as their lead HB Devon Johnson (Shoulder) is listed as questionable while the Bulldogs have no significant injuries to their team.

Which school will win the Conference USA title? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 64% ATS mark (7-4) in College Football Best Bets over the past three weeks, while StatFox Gary is 58% ATS (7-5) in Best Bets in this same timeframe.

Louisiana Tech has put forth a solid offensive effort all season long with 38.8 PPG (12th in FBS) behind 267.7 YPG passing (36th in nation) and 147.5 YPG rushing. QB Cody Sokol (3,117 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs) has looked great coming down the stretch and has thrown 15 TDs (4 INTs) in the last five games of the season while averaging 314.2 YPG passing. He came up big in the blowout against Rice, hitting on 20-of-32 passes (62.5%) for 387 yards and four TDs (1 INT). HB Kenneth Dixon (1,080 yards, 18 TDs) has been a scoring machine for the Bulldogs with at least one score in each game between rushing and receiving while going over 100 yards on the ground five times. His pass catching skills are quite impressive as well with 306 yards on 26 grabs (11.8 avg) and five scores. WR Trent Taylor (808 yards, 9 TDs) had two of his best performances on the year in his last four games and he caught seven balls for a season-high 120 yards and two TDs against Rice last week. Their defense has not looked too great while allowing opponents to score 25.2 PPG against them while being great against the run as they have given up a mere 117.7 YPG on the ground (15th in nation). DBs Xavier Woods (53 tackles, 5 INTs, 1 TD) and Adairius Burns (42 tackles, 5 INTs) have been difference makers on this side of the ball while LB Tony Johnson (69 tackles, 7 TFL) is the anchor and veteran presence.

Marshall is an exciting team to watch as they have moved the ball with ease all season long to the tune of 288.5 YPG rushing (7th in FBS) and 286.1 YPG passing (20th in FBS) while scoring the second-most points (46.7 PPG) in the nation. QB Rakeem Cato (3,314 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs) is responsible for much of the production while passing for at least three TDs in six games this season and had thrown just eight picks until last week’s four interception day. He’s been extremely effective running the ball as well with 429 yards rushing on 75 attempts (5.9 YPC) while getting into the endzone six times. HB Devon Johnson (1,602 yards, 16 TDs) is vital to this team’s success while averaging an amazing 8.6 YPC with nine games over 100 yards rushing, but is questionable for this contest after injuring his should against Western Kentucky. If he is unable to suit up, the duties will fall on HB Steward Butler (761 yards, 7 TDs) who ripped off 233 yards on 24 carries (9.7 YPC) and two TDs after Johnson left the game last week. WR Tommy Shuler (869 yards, 8 TDs) has been the volume receiver for Cato and has caught 10 balls for 132 yards and a TD in each of his last two contests. The Thundering Herd defense has certainly done their job while allowing opponents to get 20.7 PPG (22nd in nation) and have held teams under 20 points nine times. LBs Neville Hewitt (100 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Jermaine Holmes (91 tackles, 9 TFL) and DL Arnold Blackmon (35 tackles, 8 sacks) have given the program a strong up front presence and allowed the secondary to do their job as they are giving up just 204.9 YPG passing (36th in FBS).


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