Mountain West Championship Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -21, Total: 68.5

The Boise State Broncos look to win their first MWC Championship when they take on last year’s winner, the Fresno State Bulldogs, this Saturday night.

Fresno State had an up-and-down season and just was able to sneak into the conference championship game after winning their last three games of the season and having the head-to-head advantage with their win over San Diego State earlier in the year. They were also 6-6 ATS on the year and won their last three contests by an average of 13.7 PPG while going 2-1 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs punched their ticket to face Boise State with a 28-21 victory over Hawaii as 9.5-point favorites at home last week in which they nearly lost a 28-0 halftime lead while being out gained 353-333. Boise State steamrolled their division with their one SU loss coming against Air Force on September 27th on the road. They were 13-point favorites going into the contest but took a 28-14 loss against the Falcons. Since then, they have rattled off a seven-game winning streak SU (4-3 ATS) while defeating opponents by an average of 20.0 PPG. They finished off the season with a 50-19 blowout win over Utah State at home as 10-point favorites behind 498 yards of total offense and three forced turnovers. These teams have played some pretty close games over the past three seasons with the Broncos getting the best of the Bulldogs this season in a 37-27 win at home while being 18-point favorites. The Boise State offense tallied 492 yards of offense in the victory; including 264 yards on the ground (5.2 YPC). Overall in the past five years, the Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS with their one loss coming last year as the Bulldogs won a close 41-40 game at home as 3.5-point favorites. Trends to keep an eye on in this one include that Fresno State is 17-7 ATS (71%) when playing with six or less days of rest over the past three seasons while Boise State is 48-22 ATS (69%) after five or more consecutive SU wins since 1992. The only injury that could effect this game is to the Broncos as they will continue to be without WR Matt Miller (Ankle) for the rest of the season.

Which school will capture the Mountain West title? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 64% ATS mark (7-4) in College Football Best Bets over the past three weeks, while StatFox Gary is 58% ATS (7-5) in Best Bets in this same timeframe.

Fresno State has a well-rounded offense that has gained 225.6 YPG through the air and 193.4 YPG on the ground (41st in nation) while scoring 29.3 PPG. QB Brian Burrell (2,244 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs) has three games where he’s thrown over 300 years this season but has averaged a mere 144.8 YPG in the other nine contests; including going just 13-for-25 with 127 yards and a TD (1 INT) earlier in the year against the Broncos. He has also been quite elusive with his legs and has rushed for 319 yards (3.5 YPC) and three TDs. HB Marteze Waller (1,269 yards, 11 TDs) was the bright spot the first time his team played Boise State when he had a season-high 164 yards (9.1 YPC) while adding two TDs and has gone over 100 yards seven times on the year. The backfield is definitely a dual threat as backup HB Josh Quezada (435 yards, 4 TDs) has been productive and has two triple-digit rushing performances of his own. WR Josh Harper (941 yards, 7 TDs) has been the only receiver of note for the team while gaining 12.4 yards per catch and has gone over 100 yards just once. What has held them back the most in the 2014 season is their defense as they have allowed 33.0 PPG to their opponents on 468 YPG of offense. DL Tyeler Davison (55 tackles, 6 sacks) and LB Donavon Lewis (52 tackles, 6 sacks) create havoc up front for the Bulldogs and will have to perform above expectations to give the team a chance to slow down the Bronco offense.

The Broncos have a potent offense which has gained 288.5 YPG passing (19th in FBS) and 223.6 YPG rushing (28th in nation) while scoring the ninth-most points (40.8 PPG) in college football. QB Grant Hedrick (3,232 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs) has had two blowup games where he has thrown four picks each, but has thrown just five in the other 10 games and did not throw any over the final two games of the year. He had a solid performance (190 yards, 1 TD) when he took on the Bulldogs the first time and added 56 yards rushing (3.7 YPC) in the game while totaling 482 yards (3.5 YPC) and six TDs on the ground this season. HB Jay Ajayi (1,619 yards, 24 TDs) has been one of the most productive runners in the nation and has gone for 110 yards or more in each of the last seven games. He had no trouble filling the stat sheet in the game against Fresno State, going for 158 yards (5.3 YPC) and two TDs while adding 37 receiving yards. Ajayi has excelled as a receiver all year and has gained 536 yards through the air (11.9 avg) while getting into the endzone four times. WR Thomas Sperbeck (658 yards, 3 TDs) has gained a solid 17.3 yards per catch while WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (585 yards, 7 TDs) has been the volume receiver with a team leading 68 catches. The defense has not done quite as well as the offense while allowing 27.6 PPG to their opposition behind 363 yards of total offense given up per game. LB Tanner Vallejo (72 tackles, 11 TFL), DB Darian Thompson (56 tackles, 7 INTS, 1 TD) and DL Kamalei Correa (47 tackles, 9.5 sacks) have given the program a difference maker at each position and need to keep playing at a high level to take down the Bulldogs this weekend.