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Bears host slumping Cowboys Thursday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/4/2014  at  6:04:00 AM
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DALLAS COWBOYS (8-4)
at CHICAGO BEARS (5-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -3.5, Total: 51.5

The Cowboys look to get back on track after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Eagles when they head to Soldier Field for a Thursday night meeting with the Bears.

Dallas hosted Philadelphia in a huge division matchup on Thanksgiving and got blown out 33-10 as 3-point home favorites. The club has now dropped three of its past five contests, going 1-4 ATS, but is a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in non-home games this year. Chicago also suffered a loss last Thursday, falling 34-17 as 7-point road underdogs in Detroit to end a two-game win streak. The Bears have won-and-covered in three straight meetings with the Cowboys overall. These teams last met a year ago on Dec. 9, 2013, when Chicago won 45-28 as 2-point home favorites, giving the club a 3-1 mark (SU and ATS) in the past four home meetings in this series, dating back to 1996. The past four games played between these teams have gone Over the total with the average final total score being 54 points. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game since 1992, and is also 14-3 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14+ points at the half in that timeframe. However, the Bears get to face a Cowboys team that is also 5-15 ATS after playing a Thursday game since 1992, and is 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the past three years.

Can Dallas stay unbeaten on the road this season? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained profitable since Week 3, combining for a 53.2% ATS mark (91-80). StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (27-21) in Best Bets during these 11 weeks to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in his past four weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is 55% ATS (26-21) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian continues to profit in NFL Totals with a 55% record (21-17) for the season.

The Cowboys had a huge game last week, but were unable to rise to the occasion in a 33-10 loss to Philadelphia. QB Tony Romo (2,718 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) had one of his worst games of the year, throwing for just 199 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He’ll need to get himself back on track, and should be able to do so against a defense that is allowing 270.7 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). In last year's meeting in Chicago, Romo threw for only 104 yards, but tossed three touchdowns. WR Dez Bryant (67 rec, 952 yards, 10 TD) caught one of those touchdowns last year, but he also struggled last week against the Eagles, catching just four passes for 73 yards. He had six touchdown receptions in the four games leading up to the matchup and should be able to find success against this miserable Bears secondary. RB DeMarco Murray (1,427 rush yards, 8 TD) continues to play extremely well for this team and was the only bright spot in the loss to Philly. Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and also added six catches for 40 yards. He will need to set the tone for this team early on against Chicago, just like he did last season when he steamrolled the Bears for 146 yards on 18 carries (6.1 YPC). The Cowboys defense will need to step it up though, as they’re playing against an offense that is capable of putting up points. Dallas has allowed 30.5 PPG over its past two contests and will need to lower that number in order to finish this season strong.

The Bears went to Detroit and led 14-3 after the first quarter of the game, but were dominated throughout the rest of the contest. Chicago’s defense allowed a struggling Lions QB Matthew Stafford to throw for 390 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. They’ll need to completely alter their defense heading into this one or Tony Romo will certainly make them pay through the air. QB Jay Cutler (3,105 pass yards, 24 TD, 14 INT) threw for 280 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to Detroit. He played well in the first half, but once the Bears went down he was forcing the issue. Cutler should be able to move the ball against a Cowboys defense that has fallen off in recent weeks, and are now allowing 244.5 passing yards per game (20th in NFL) and 119.6 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL). RB Matt Forte (828 yards, 5 TD) should be able to find success against this defense as well. Forte inexplicably got just five carries against the Lions last game, but he did catch six passes for 52 yards. Chicago will likely feed him early in this game because it just can’t afford to use its best player as little as they did on Thanksgiving when the club rushed for a total of 13 yards on eight carries. Dallas had no answer for Forte last season, as he racked up 175 total yards and a touchdown in the 45-28 romp. WR Alshon Jeffery (67 rec, 854 yards, 7 TD) gained 84 yards and a touchdown versus the Cowboys last year, and has been unstoppable for this team lately. He had nine catches for 71 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions and has now racked up five touchdowns in the past four games. WR Brandon Marshall (58 rec, 660 yards, 8 TD) will likely fail to reach 1,000 yards for the first time since his 2006 rookie campaign, but he caught six passes for 100 yards against Dallas last December.


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