Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -7.5, Total: 53

No. 3 Florida State’s cross-state rival Florida looks to throw a cog in the Seminoles perfect season when they visit them on Saturday afternoon.

The Gators have not had a great season in 2014, as they are 5-5 ATS while losing some rough games as favorites to Missouri (42-13 defeat) and South Carolina (23-20 loss). They do have one solid victory on the year, though, when they defeated Georgia by a score of 38-20 as big 11.5-point underdogs on Nov. 1. Including that contest, Florida is 3-1 (both SU and ATS) in its past four games while committing a mere three turnovers. Last week the school faced Eastern Kentucky as 30.5-point favorites at home and dominated with a 52-3 win behind 430 yards of total offense. Florida State has not lost a game SU since Nov. 24, 2012 and that loss came against this Florida team. This season the 'Noles have won their contests by an average of 13.3 PPG, but have had a margin of victory of just 3.5 PPG over the past two games. On the year they are a putrid 3-8 ATS, and once again failed to cover last week when they hosted Boston College as 16.5-point favorites, needing a field goal in the closing seconds to secure the 20-17 victory. It is fitting that Florida is the last team to beat the Seminoles given their rivalry, but for the most part it has been Florida State’s series, as it is 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past four seasons with the wins coming by an average of 22.7 PPG. Last year the Seminoles had no trouble with the Gators as they won by a score of 37-7 while holding their opponent to just 197 yards of offense. FSU dropped 456 total yards in the game while forcing two turnovers. Some trends to consider in this game include that Florida is 35-17 ATS (67%) after a two-game homestand since 1992, but Will Muschamp is 6-15 ATS (29%) versus good offenses (31+ PPG) in his tenure as the Gators head coach. On the injury front, QB Treon Harris (knee) is probable for the Gators while WR Rashad Greene (arm) is also listed as probable for the host Seminoles.

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Florida has had its issues this season on the offensive side of the ball with a mere 181.9 passing YPG (107th in FBS) and 197.1 rushing YPG (40th in nation) while scoring 31.6 PPG (48th in FBS). Freshman QB Treon Harris (727 pass yards, 10.7 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) has taken over for the struggling Jeff Driskel (1,092 pass yards, 5.6 YPA, 9 TD, 10 INT) and done well while throwing three touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past three games. His real talent lies in his ability to run the ball, and he has rushed for 250 yards on 56 attempts (4.5 YPC) with three scores on the year. HBs Matt Jones (788 rush yards, 6 TD) and Kelvin Taylor (528 rush yards, 6 TD) lead a solid backfield, as Jones has gone for double-digit attempts seven times and triple-digit rushing yards three times this season. WR Demarcus Robinson (703 rec yards, 7 TD) is the only real threat in the passing attack, with four games of 100+ receiving yards, including a huge performance last week (137 rec yards, 2 TD). The defense has been able to keep this team in games as it is allowing 20.9 PPG (23rd in FBS) while holding the past four opponents to an average of 14.0 PPG. Leading them on this side of the ball has been LB Antonio Morrison (93 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 INT) and DL Alex McCalister (6 sacks, 20 tackles).

Florida State has once again compiled one of the best passing attacks in the nation, producing 314.9 YPG through the air (12th in FBS) while adding 126.6 YPG on the ground, and has scored 35.5 PPG (26th in nation). QB Jameis Winston (3,125 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 19 TD, 13 INT) has been much less explosive this season than his Heisman-winning campaign last year (4,057 pass yards, 10.6 YPA, 40 TD, 10 INT) but still has eclipsed 300 passing yards five times this year while throwing at least one touchdown in each game. Unfortunately he has also thrown plenty of picks and has at least one interception in all but two contests on the season. Last year he went 19-for-31 (61%) with 327 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the 37-7 win over the Gators. HB Dalvin Cook (584 rush yards, 7 TD) has been explosive as a freshman and is getting 5.8 YPC while also grabbing 12 catches for 108 yards. On the other hand, HB Karlos Williams (571 rush yards, 10 TD) has been the workhorse with double-digit carries in six games this season and has been huge on the receiving end with 202 yards and a touchdown on 23 catches (8.8 avg). WR Rashad Greene (1,148 rec yards, 5 TD) has 83 receptions on the season while going for at least 100 yards in 7-of-11 games. Behind him, WRs Nick O’Leary (465 rec yards, 3 TD) and Jesus Wilson (447 rec yards, 4 TD) have done well, and will be leaned on heavily if for some reason Greene suffers a setback with his arm injury. On the defensive side of things, the Seminoles have given up 22.3 PPG (29th in nation) behind the strong efforts of LBs Reggie Northrup (90 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Terrance Smith (79 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT).