StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 7 Baylor hosts reeling Oklahoma State Saturday
By:   - 
Published: 11/22/2014  at  5:33:00 AM
  Print This Article    

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-5)
at BAYLOR BEARS (8-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -28.5, Total: 67.5

No. 7 Baylor looks to remain in the NCAA playoff chase as it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday night.

The Bears are right in the thick of things in the college football playoff race, but Saturday’s game is a little more than making sure they remain in the race, as it's also about payback. Last season, the Cowboys dominated the game, knocking the Bears out of the title race with a 49-17 victory in Stillwater. The Cowboys outgained the Bears 594-453, while also having the ball for nearly 11 minutes longer. However, Oklahoma State (2-7-1 ATS) is not the same team as it was last season, as the Cowboys do not resemble the offense from last season. They were able to rush the ball for only 34 yards in last week’s loss to Texas, but the team has bounced back well under head coach Mike Gundy when rushing for less than 100 yards, by going 11-3 ATS in the week following a performance of less than 100 yards. The Bears have bounced back nicely since losing to West Virginia, as the team has averaged 54.0 PPG the past two weeks. Baylor (6-2-1 ATS) is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite the past two seasons. The one key injury to watch in this game is Oklahoma State QB Daxx Garman, who is listed as questionable due to a concussion.

Which school will prevail in this crucial conference matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Mike Gundy has consistently had one of the most explosive offenses in the country during his time at Oklahoma State, but this season, the unit has struggled. The Cowboys rank 69th in FBS passing (227.4 YPG), 83rd in scoring (26.3 PPG) and 100th in rushing (139.6 YPG). Quarterback Daxx Garman (2,041 pass yards, 12 TD, 12 INT) has had his ups and downs this season, and he has struggled to develop any kind of rapport with his teammates. If he can't play, OSU will be forced to use freshman Mason Rudolph, who hasn't thrown a pass this season. Another problem for the Cowboys is a lack of a good rushing attack to lean on. RB Desmond Roland (136 carries, 533 yards, 7 TD) has been much less effective this year than last season, when he rushed for 811 yards and 13 TD. The lone playmaker on the team is RB Tyreek Hill (89 carries, 444 yards, 1 TD). He is one of the fastest players in the country, but has not had the space in the open field because of the lack of speed on the outside. WR David Glidden (34 catches, 450 yards, 1 TD) is the leading receiver on the team, but he has not had more than 74 yards in any game this season. While the offense has had its problems, the defense has been equally as bad. The unit gives up 30.0 PPG, which ranks 91st in the country. The leader on the defense is DE Emmanuel Ogbah (10 sacks, 39 tackles, 15.5 TFL), who has put together a very impressive season despite seeing a lot of double teams. Sophomore S Jordan Sterns (78 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 FF) is the leading tackler on the team, while LB Seth Jacobs (61 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 INT) has been solid in the secondary. This has been a tough year for the defense, and Saturday may be its most difficult challenge.

The Baylor offense leads the nation in scoring (50.1 PPG) while ranking third in passing (354.2 YPG) and 24th in rushing (230.9 YPG), and it all starts with QB Bryce Petty (2,421 pass yards, 21 TD, 3 INT). Petty has struggled with some injuries and his accuracy has dipped this year to 58%, compared to 62% last season. However, he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he has a tremendous supporting cast around him. RB Shock Linwood (177 carries, 864 yards, 12 TD) has had a great season for the Bears, helping the offense remain one of the best when the team was battling injuries at the wide receiver position. Petty also has an excellent receiving corps, with WRs Corey Coleman (44 catches, 796 yards, 8 TD), KD Cannon (38 catches, 731 yards, 6 TD) and Antwan Goodley (38 catches, 572 yards, 4 TD) are all capable of getting behind the defense for the big play. Coleman and Cannon are the youngsters who have blazing speed, while the senior Goodley is the reliable target that usually gets the ball on third down. This may be the best Bears defense under head coach Art Briles, as this unit ranks 19th in points allowed (21.0 PPG). The heart of the defense is LB Bryce Hager (73 tackles, 7 TFL, 1 INT). He is the leading tackler on the team, but he is a four-year player who has been in many big games for the Bears. Sophomore S Orion Stewart (55 tackles, 3 INT) and CB Xavien Howard (31 tackles, 14 PD, 3 INT) are two players who are capable of stopping the passing game. Juinor DE Shawn Oakman (6 sacks, 35 tackles, 12.5 TFL) is emerging as a force on the defensive line.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: