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Dolphins look to stay hot Sunday at Broncos
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/23/2014  at  5:45:00 AM
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MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4)
at DENVER BRONCOS (7-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -7, Total: 47.5

The Broncos look to bounce back from miserable loss to the Rams when they host the surging Dolphins on Sunday.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Miami is coming off a dominant 22-9 win at home over the Bills last Thursday, when it held Buffalo to just 237 yards of total offense. That makes the team 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five games where all five opponents have scored 20 points or less. Denver not only fell 22-7 in St. Louis against a Shaun Hill-led offense last week, but lost three key players to injuries -- RB Montee Ball (groin, out) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, questionable) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle, questionable). The Dolphins and Broncos have met just five times in the thin air since 1992, and the Fish are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in those visits. Miami, however, has not seen Peyton Manning in a Broncos jersey just yet. He is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) with 283.7 passing yards per game, 5 TD and 1 INT in his three meetings with the Dolphins since 2009. Some key betting trends for this matchup include Miami going 38-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents, and 38-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of its previous three games since 1992. The Broncos, however, are 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game, and 20-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons. Miami placed CB Will Davis (knee) on IR last week and will likely be missing CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle, doubtful) as well, which doesn't bode well facing such a potent passing offense. In addition to Ball, Sanders and Thomas, Denver is also missing RB Ronnie Hillman (foot) indefinitely and LB Nate Irving (knee, IR).

Can the injury-riddled Broncos win handily on Sunday afternoon? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past nine weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (80-59). StatFox Scott is 67% ATS (24-12) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 61% ATS (27-17) on the season. StatFox Dave is 59% ATS (23-16) in Best Bets during these nine weeks to improve to 55% ATS (27-22) on the season, while StatFox Brian continues to roll in NFL Totals with a strong 64% record (21-12) for the season. StatFox Gary is 6-1 ATS in his past two weeks of NFL Best Bets.

The Dolphins picked up a big division win over the Bills on Thursday and now have a chance to kick the Broncos while they’re already down. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,354 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) was excellent in the win over Buffalo, throwing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill has thrown for 6 TD and just 1 INT. The quarterback has struggled as a road underdog though, throwing for an average of just 216.0 yards per game with 15 TD and 17 INT in 16 such games in his career. WR Jarvis Landry (42 rec, 400 yards, 3 TD) has really come on strong for the Dolphins recently, catching five or more passes in each of the past three games and has two touchdowns over the course of that streak. He’s a much-needed safety blanket over the middle and perfectly complements the boom-or-bust play of speedy WR Mike Wallace (44 rec, 557 yards, 6 TD). RB Lamar Miller (614 rush yards, 5 TD) ran extremely well last game, gaining 86 yards on 15 carries despite playing with an injured shoulder. The Dolphins will need him to run just as hard if they’re going to have a chance of beating Denver. Miami’s defense is allowing just 10.5 PPG over the past four weeks, and has forced three or more turnovers in four of the past seven contests.

Peyton Manning (3,301 pass yards, 30 TD, 9 INT) had an off-day in a loss to St. Louis last week with two interceptions, but he still completed 34-of-54 passes (63%) for 389 yards and a touchdown. Manning will need to be smarter with his passes and take much better care of the football against a Miami secondary that is second in the league in passing defense. With RBs Montee Ball (groin) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) both out, RB C.J. Anderson (201 rush yards) will continue to get a good amount of touches in this offense. Anderson rushed for only 29 yards against the Rams, but he did catch eight passes for 86 yards in that game. Anderson does, however, need to do a better job in pass protection in order to keep Peyton Manning from taking too many hits. If WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, questionable) is unable to play, WR Wes Welker (30 rec, 264 yards, 1 TD) could see a major increase in playing time. Welker has not been a big part of this offense since being suspended earlier in the season, but has had plenty of success versus the Dolphins in his career with 95 receptions (6 TD) and 1,178 receiving yards in 11 meetings (107 per game). Denver’s defense was an issue against the Rams and will need to do better against a well-balanced Dolphins team. The Broncos could not get stops when they needed to get off the field, allowing the Rams to go 6-for-17 on third-down conversions. They also failed to force a turnover for the first time since Week 5. If Denver's defense does not step it up, it could have a lot of trouble against Miami.


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