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Clippers visit short-handed Heat on Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/20/2014  at  4:52:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (6-4)

at MIAMI HEAT (6-5)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -4, Total: 198

Both teams will be looking to win their second straight game on Thursday night when the Clippers visit the Heat.

Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses in each of the past nine games, as it opened a seven-game road trip on Wednesday with a convincing 114-90 victory over Orlando as 5-point road favorites. Miami hasn’t played since a meeting with the Nets on Monday when they won 95-83 as 8-point road underdogs to snap a three-game losing skid (SU and ATS). Over the past three seasons, the Heat are 3-1 SU (but just 2-2 ATS) when facing the Clippers. They are 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) when hosting L.A. since 2004, including five straight SU wins (4-1 ATS). On the season, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS after scoring 105+ points in their previous game, but are 26-20 ATS over the past three years after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds. Miami, meanwhile, is 11-3 ATS off a double-digit win as an underdog of six points or more since 1996. But the Heat have three major injuries to contend with, as SG Dwyane Wade (hamstring) and SF Luol Deng (wrist) are both listed as doubtful, while PF Josh McRoberts (foot) is questionable to play on Thursday.

Can the short-handed Heat win at home on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a 59% ATS record (32-22) in featured games this season. StatFox Gary is off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 59% ATS (10-7) in his Best Bets, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (7-5) on NBA Best Bets in November.

The Clippers began their long road trip on Wednesday and blew out the Magic behind 22 points off the bench from SF Jamal Crawford (18.4 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.2 SPG). Crawford is playing as well as he ever has, and should have plenty of success against a Heat team that will be thin at the shooting guard position in this matchup. PG Chris Paul (17.2 PPG, 9.7 APG, 2.2 SPG) played just 30 minutes against Orlando and finished with 16 points and nine assists. Paul should also be able to find some success against the Heat, as Mario Chalmers is likely going to have a lot of trouble staying in front of somebody with his type of speed. PF Blake Griffin (22.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.5 APG) is going to be the one who needs to get things going offensively early for Los Angeles in this game. Griffin is going to have a mismatch, as he will be covered by a much-smaller Shawne Williams. If Griffin can dominate the low-post then there should be plenty of spacing for the Clippers and that would mean big games for both Crawford and SG J.J. Redick (11.6 PPG). C DeAndre Jordan (8.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 2.7 BPG) also benefits from the extra attention that Griffin warrants each night.

The Heat are coming off of a big victory in Brooklyn, but they will now be likely without both SG Dwyane Wade (19.8 PPG, 6.4 APG) and SF Luol Deng (14.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG). If those two guys aren’t able to play, then PG Mario Chalmers (13.5 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) will need to rise to the occasion against Chris Paul. Chalmers has been on a hot streak lately though, scoring 18+ points in four of the past five games. Chalmers is thriving in the absence of Wade, and should be this team’s starting point guard going forward. C Chris Bosh (19.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has completely cooled down after a hot start to the regular season. Over the past five games, Bosh is averaging just 14.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 1.4 BPG. He needs to be a more reliable scorer for this team, as that is exactly what Miami was investing in him to do when they signed him to a monster five-year contract extension in the offseason. Bosh has a difficult matchup ahead with DeAndre Jordan, and will need to be making his jumpers to keep Jordan honest. PF Shawne Williams (11.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG) will have his hands full with Blake Griffin, so he's not expected to contribute much on the offensive end of the court.


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