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Surging Spurs host Cavaliers on Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/19/2014  at  6:49:00 AM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (6-4)

at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (5-4)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Cleveland -2, Total: 204

LeBron James and the Cavaliers host the defending NBA champion Spurs in a big Wednesday night game.

San Antonio is coming off a 100-75 blowout victory over the 76ers for its fourth win-and-cover in the past five contests. Cleveland fell to 12-point underdog Denver 106-97 at home on Monday which snapped a four-game winning streak. The Spurs have dominated the Cavaliers recently, winning nine games in a row SU and covering in eight of the past 10 in this head-to-head series. Three straight games and eight of the past 10 have finished Over the total as well. Since 1996, the Cavaliers are 52-31 ATS in home games after four consecutive games as a favorite. They are, however, just 3-13 ATS as home favorites of three points or less over the past three seasons. San Antonio, meanwhile, is 46-30 ATS (61%) after playing two consecutive games as a favorite over the past two seasons, and 354-268 ATS (57%) after covering in two out of the previous three games since 1996. SF Shawn Marion (foot) is probable for the Cavaliers on Wednesday, while SG Marco Belinelli (groin) is doubtful for San Antonio.

Which powerhouse team will win on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a 59% ATS record (30-21) in featured games this season. StatFox Gary is off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 63% ATS (10-6) in his Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is close behind at 56% ATS (9-7). StatFox Brian is 64% ATS (7-4) on NBA Best Bets in November.

The only starter that played more than 20 minutes in the Spurs’ win over the lowly 76ers on Monday was SG Danny Green (9.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG), who finished the game with 11 points and four assists in 28 minutes. PF Tim Duncan (14.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG), PG Tony Parker (16.1 PPG, 5.3 APG) and SG Manu Ginobili (12.2 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.1 SPG) will have fresh legs against the Cavaliers, as they played just 46 minutes combined in that victory. Parker should be able to use his speed to get into the lane, as he’s going to be guarded by a poor defender in Kyrie Irving. Duncan could also be in for a big night, as Kevin Love isn’t much of a defender either. The one player who is going to be facing the most difficult task is SF Kawhi Leonard (12.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG), who will be matched up against LeBron James for a majority of this game. Leonard did an excellent job in his matchup with James in the NBA Finals last year. He won Finals MVP in his well-rounded performance, averaging 17.8 PPG (61% FG), 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG and 1.2 BPG for the series. PF Boris Diaw (8.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) will also see some time defending James.

The Cavaliers are coming off of a brutal 106-97 home loss against the Nuggets, and they just have not played well enough defensively to dominate the way people expected them to. Cleveland is allowing 104.3 PPG (24th in NBA) this season and has surrendered over 100 points in seven of nine games this year. Offensively, this team has been just fine though, scoring 106.7 PPG (4th in NBA) and improving its assist rate as the season progresses at 21.6 APG (15th in NBA). SF LeBron James (27.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, 6.7 RPG) has been on a tear in recent weeks, averaging 29.8 PPG, 7.8 APG and 7.4 RPG over the past five contests. James averaged 28.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 4.0 APG against the Spurs in last year’s NBA Finals with the Heat, but his teammates did very little to help him. New teammates C Kevin Love (17.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) and PG Kyrie Irving (22.1 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.4 SPG) are talented enough offensively to keep James from needing to do too much in this game. The problem with Love and Irving is that they both are poor defenders at their respective positions. In a game that could come down to three-point shooting, watch out for SG Joe Harris (4.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG). The rookie has been seeing playing time recently and had 12 points, four assists and four rebounds in a win over Atlanta before struggling to just three points in 24 minutes in the loss to Denver.


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