StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Texas, Oklahoma State seek bowl eligibility Saturday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/15/2014  at  4:58:00 AM
  Print This Article    

TEXAS LONGHORNS (5-5)
at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-4)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Texas -3, Total: 49

Oklahoma State hosts Texas on Saturday night as each team hopes to become bowl-eligible with a victory.

As usual, the Longhorns have a very tough schedule this season but just do not have the talent to compete with most of the top teams as they have taken defeats at the hands of UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma and Kansas State; all of whom were ranked in the top-12 when played. They have looked better of late, though, with SU wins in three of their last four games (2-2 ATS) while getting a big victory against West Virginia last week. They hosted the Mountaineers as three-point underdogs and came away with a 33-16 win despite being outgained 448-351 as they forced two turnovers and outscored West Virginia 24-3 in the first half. Oklahoma State has also had their ups and downs this season and was not successful in the toughest part of the schedule as they took SU and ATS losses in each of the past three weeks. Each team was ranked in the top-25 when they played them as they lost by an average of 30.3 PPG to the likes of TCU, West Virginia and Kansas State. Overall on the season they are 3-6 ATS and failed to cover the large 13-point spread on the road against the Wildcats last week with a final score of 48-14. They scored just one offensive TD while gaining a poor 260 yards of offense and turning the ball over three times. They have struggled to keep possession of the ball and have multiple turnovers in each of their last six contests after having just two total in the first three games. Surprisingly it has been the away team that has excelled in the matchup while winning SU in each of the past seasons as Oklahoma State is 3-2 SU and ATS. Last year they beat the Longhorns in Texas by a score of 38-13 while forcing three interceptions as three point favorites. Some trends to be aware of include that Texas is 45-26 ATS (63%) after having won three out of their last four games since 1992 while the Cowboys are 16-3 ATS (84%) in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. As far as injuries go, the Longhorns will be without QB David Ash (Concussion) who has left the team due to head injuries while HB Desmond Roland (Personal) is probable for the host Cowboys.

Which team will win this SEC showdown on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Texas has really had their issues on the offensive side of the ball while scoring just 23.3 PPG behind 203.7 YPG passing and 156.9 YPG rushing. QB Tyrone Swoopes (1,847 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs) has had two games where he went over 300 yards passing but has not done too well recently as he has he has hit on a mere 47% of his passes for 152.7 YPG in his last three contests. He does have the ability to run as well with 236 yards on 80 attempts (3.0 YPC) while scoring three times. HB Malcolm Brown (623 yards, 6 TDs) has totaled 42 carries in the team’s last two games and had his first 100+ yard performance in the win over Texas Tech as he went for 116 yards on 22 carries (5.3 YPC) and two TDs. HB Jonathan Gray (546 yards, 6 TDs) has been a nice change-of-pace back as he has averaged 4.8 YPC while having his best game (101 yards, 3 TDs) last week against West Virginia. WRs John Harris (859 yards, 6 TDs) and Jaxon Shipley (538 yards, 1 TDs) have caught 104-of-186 passes (56%) this year while Harris has averaged a solid 17.2 yards per catch and hit triple-digits in yards three times. Their defense has looked much better than the offense while LBs Jordan Hicks (110 tackles, 8 TFL, 2 INTs), Steve Edmond (98 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and DL Hassan Ridgeway (40 tackles, 5 sacks) have led them in allowing opponents to score 22.4 PPG against them.

The Cowboys offense has been disappointing while going for 235.1 YPG through the air and just 151.3 YPG on the ground as they have scored 28.4 PPG. QB Daxx Garman (1,883 yards, 11 TDs, 11 INTs) has thrown multiple picks in five of his last six games and after averaging 300 YPG in his first four starts, has put up a meager 170.8 YPG in his last four. He failed to throw a TD with two INTs and just 148 yards passing in the most recent loss against Kansas State. HB Desmond Roland (512 yards, 7 TDs) has missed two games this season but is probable to play this Saturday and has averaged a poor 3.9 YPC on the year while failing to have a game with more than 95 yards rushing. There is no one elite receiver in this offense as six different players have caught 15 or more balls with WR David Glidden (419 yards, 1 TD) leading the team in receptions (31). The problems really come from their defense which has allowed 30.2 PPG on the year and have really done poorly in their last three games while giving up 41.3 PPG over the losing streak. DL Emmanuel Ogbah (36 tackles, 9 sacks) has been a headache for opposing offensive lines but cannot carry the team on his back.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: