StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 11 Nebraska visits No. 22 Wisconsin Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/15/2014  at  5:50:00 AM
  Print This Article    

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (8-1)
at WISCONSIN BADGERS (7-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -6.5, Total: 57

In a top-25 matchup on Saturday, No. 11 Nebraska travels north to take on No. 22 Wisconsin with first place in the Big Ten West division on the line.

The Cornhuskers have just one SU loss on the season when they were defeated by Michigan State 27-22 as 6.5-point underdogs. Overall, they are 6-3 ATS this year while failing to cover in each of their past two games in which they were big favorites of 20+ points against Rutgers and Purdue. In their most recent game against the Boilermakers, they won 35-14 while just barely failing to cover the 21.5-point spread as they had a paltry 297 yards of total offense. They actually were outgained with Purdue getting 340 total yards, and lost the turnover battle, but were able to still pull out the victory despite HB Ameer Abdullah (knee) missing most of the game. The Badgers have been tremendous over their past four games, defeating opponents by an average of 27.5 PPG and going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS). They also played Purdue in their most recent game and came away with a very similar score (34-16) but were able to cover their spread, as it was 16.5 points. They amassed 489 yards of offense in the game while rushing for 264 yards on 6.3 YPC, but did turn the ball over twice. These teams last squared off in the Big Ten Championship back in 2012 and Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska while playing at home by a score of 70-31 as a 3-point underdog. The Badgers ran for an absolutely absurd 539 yards (10.8 YPC) in the victory. Overall in their past three meetings, Wisconsin is 2-1 SU while being a perfect 3-0 ATS and has turned the ball over just twice in the three games. Trends show that Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing at home over the past two seasons, while Wisconsin is 25-8 ATS (76%) in home games after having won four or five of its previous six games since 1992. The Cornhuskers will be happy to get back HB Ameer Abdullah (knee), who is probable for this one, while the Badgers have no significant injuries for this important Big Ten contest.

Which Big Ten powerhouse will prevail on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Nebraska ranks among the best in the nation at running the football (280.7 YPG, 10th in FBS) while getting 209.9 YPG from their passing attack, which has led to 40.4 PPG (10th in nation). QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,827 pass yards, 13 TD, 8 INT) has not surpassed 280 yards in any of his games thus far while he has completed only 53% of his passes for 7.9 YPA. His dual-threat ability has led to him rushing for double-digit attempts in 6-of-9 games while totaling 571 yards on 90 carries (6.3 YPC) with four scores. HB Ameer Abdullah (1,250 rush yards, 17 TD) is fifth in the nation in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns while going over 200 yards in four contests this season. He had scored a touchdown in each game before last week when he left after just six attempts for one yard. WRs Jordan Westerkamp (600 rec yards, 4 TD) and Kenny Bell (577 rec yards, 2 TD) each have more than 30 receptions and have combined to average a solid 17.6 yards per catch. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed their opponents to score only 19.7 PPG (16th in FBS) while holding opposing rushers to a meager 123.8 YPG (20th in nation). The Blackshirts have been successful due to the strong play from LB Zaire Anderson (63 tackles, 6.5 TFL), DL Randy Gregory (37 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT) and DB Nate Gerry (50 tackles, 4 INT).

Like its opponent, Wisconsin loves to pound the football, running for 325.7 YPG (5th in FBS) while adding 152.7 YPG through the air, which has led to 36.8 PPG (19th in nation). QB Joel Stave (642 pass yards, 5 TD, 4 INT) has provided the team with a solid pocket passer to play in tandem with QB Tanner McEvoy (709 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT) who has rushed the ball for 442 yards on just 47 attempts (9.4 YPC) while scoring four times. The real meat of this offense comes from the legs of HB Melvin Gordon (1,501 rush yards, 19 TD) who is second in the nation in rushing yards and touchdowns, while averaging a hefty 7.6 YPC. He has had at least 120 yards on the ground in each game that he carried the football at least 13 times while going over 200 yards on three occasions. His backup, HB Corey Clement (720 rush yards, 7 TD), would be the top back on most teams, as he has gotten 6.3 YPC and had three games of 100+ yards of his own. WR Alex Erickson (467 rec yards, 3 TD) leads the team with 35 receptions while averaging 13.3 yards per catch, as WR Sam Arneson (271 rec yards, 3 TD) has been a solid red-zone threat. On the defensive side of things, the Badgers have excelled while allowing the third-fewest points in the nation (14.3 PPG) and have given up only 94.3 rushing YPG (5th in FBS). While LBs Derek Landisch (49 tackles, 6 sacks), Joe Schobert (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Marcus Trotter (41 tackles, 2.5 sacks) have done a spectacular job against the run so far, they will have to play at a much higher level against the tough Nebraska rushing game.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: