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Raptors look to maintain dominance over Magic Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/11/2014  at  5:00:00 AM
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ORLANDO MAGIC (2-5)

at TORONTO RAPTORS (6-1)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Toronto -11, Total: 201.5

The Magic head north of the border on Tuesday night to face the red-hot Raptors.

Orlando flies to Toronto after a 104-96 loss to the 9-point favorite Nets on Sunday to improve to 3-1 ATS in the past four games. The Raptors are sizzling, defeating the 76ers 120-88 on Monday for their four straight win (SU and ATS). Toronto has covered the spread in each of its six victories this season, and has completely dominated this series recent years. Dating back to 2012, the Raptors have won eight straight games against the Magic, while also covering in seven of those eight victories. When hosting Orlando, Toronto is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in those games. Three of the four games played in Canada between these teams have gone Under the total in that span. Over the past three seasons, the Magic are 5-20 ATS (20%) after covering in three of their previous four games, but they’re also up against a Raptors team that is 35-20 ATS (64%) when playing six or more games in 10 days during that span. Orlando will likely be without PF Kyle O’Quinn (ankle) and SG Devyn Marble (shoulder) in this one.

Can the surging Raptors cover the monster spread on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Zach posted a 54% ATS mark (65-56-4) in NBA Best Bets last season, while StatFox Forecaster had a 53.4% ATS (207-181-12) in featured games last season. StatFox Scott is off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 60% ATS (6-4), while StatFox Brian is 67% ATS (4-2) on NBA Best Bets in November.

The Magic are coming off of a road loss to Brooklyn, but the offense has looked much better over the past three games with 99.7 PPG on 49% FG. One player who is off to an outstanding start to the season is C Nikola Vucevic (18.6 PPG, 12.3 RPG). Vucevic is fresh off of a 27-point, 12-rebound performance against the Nets. He is a monster on the glass and a major reason this team is averaging 44.4 RPG (7th in NBA). He’ll need to win his matchup against Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas if the Magic are going to have any shot in this game. Another guy who has been improving game-by-game is rookie PG Elfrid Payton (8.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG). Payton is an abysmal shooter (34.4% FG), but he is a creative playmaker who can be a pest on defense. He’ll need to get himself into the paint often to create plays for his teammate and get some easy baskets at the rim. If Vucevic can’t get himself going against the Raptors then PF Tobias Harris (16.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will be the guy who is heavily featured in this Orlando offense. Harris is coming off of a rough night against the Nets, scoring just 11 points in 35 minutes. He should be able to recover against a Raptors team that is weakest at the power forward position.

Toronto was one of the best teams in the NBA in the second half of last season and that has carried over into the new campaign. The Raptors have started the season extremely hot, scoring a NBA-high 107.4 PPG and allowing just 95.9 PPG (8th in NBA). This team is led by ultra-competitive PG Kyle Lowry (17.9 PPG, 5.6 APG), who will be in attack mode early on. Lowry will do everything he can to make Elfrid Payton uncomfortable setting up his offense, and he’ll also penetrate with the ball to try and draw Nikola Vucevic away from the rim. While Lowry is the heart and soul of this team, nobody on the Raptors is as talented as SG DeMar DeRozan (22.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 SPG). DeRozan is off to an excellent start this season and has now scored 23 or more points in each of the past three games. He had 24 points (8-of-12 FG) and six rebounds in their most recent win over the 76ers. When these teams met in Orlando on Nov. 1, DeRozan had 26 points and eight rebounds in just 30 minutes of action. C Jonas Valanciunas (11.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) struggled in that game, scoring just 10 points on 2-of-8 FG. He did, however, have 11 rebounds and two blocks. He’ll be featured early on in this one in an effort to tire out Vucevic.


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