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No. 9 Georgia favored big over Florida Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/1/2014  at  5:25:00 AM
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FLORIDA GATORS (3-3)
vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-1)

Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -13, Total: 51

No. 9 Georgia looks to stay on top of the SEC East standings when it takes on a struggling Florida team at Everbank Field in Jacksonville.

The Gators have done well against lesser opponents this year but have not able to contend with some of the tougher competition that they face as part of the toughest conference in college football. They are just 1-4 ATS in SEC play and have surrendered 114 points in three conference defeats. In Florida's last contest on Oct. 18, the school was actually favored by seven points over visiting Missouri, but suffered a 42-13 loss. The defense actually held the Tigers to a meager 119 yards of total offense that day, but turned the ball over six times (two returned for touchdowns), while also allowing Missouri to score 2 TD on special teams. The Bulldogs have not had quite as tough of a schedule as some of the other teams in their division and are 4-3 ATS so far while taking one SU loss when they were defeated by South Carolina early in the season. They headed to Arkansas as three-point favorites in their last game on Oct. 18 and left with a nice 45-32 victory. They had a 38-6 lead at the half in the contest as they totaled 386 yards of offense for the game and forced four turnovers while not turning the ball over themselves for the fourth time this year. Georgia has won this neutral-field matchup in each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS). In 2013, the team escaped with a 23-20 victory, but failed to cover a 3.5-point spread despite a 23-3 halftime lead. Bettors should know that the Gators are 34-17 ATS (67%) after a two-game homestand since 1992 while the Bulldogs are 36-30 ATS (55%) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the same timeframe. Injuries will not affect Florida in this contest while HB Keith Marshall (ankle) is questionable and HB Todd Gurley (suspension) has been ruled out until mid-November for Georgia.

Will Georgia add to Florida's misery with a two-touchdown win? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past three weeks.

Florida’s offense has sputtered all season and ranks 76th in FBS scoring (28.7 PPG), 94th in passing (198.5 YPG) and 61st in rushing (169.5 YPG). Freshman QB Treon Harris (263 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) will be getting the start over Jeff Driskel who had nine interceptions over his past four games. Harris was solid in his last game on Oct. 18, completing 8-of-12 passes for 98 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT while also picking up 26 yards and a score on eight carries. HB Matt Jones (424 rush yards, 3 TD) has been the lead back for the team but has averaged a mere eight attempts over the past two games. WR Demarcus Robinson (524 rec yards, 4 TD) is the one real factor in the passing game and has three performances where he went over the century mark while averaging 15.4 yards per catch. The defense has not been much better, allowing 25.5 PPG to its opponents while actually ranking 12th in the nation in total defense (317.3 YPG). LB Antonio Morrison (52 tackles, 1 INT, 4.5 TFL) and DB Keanu Neal (33 tackles, 3 INT) have been solid as the leaders of this defense.

Georgia has scored many of its 43.4 PPG (9th in nation) with a fierce rushing attack (265.9 YPG, 15th in FBS) while not doing much through the air (171.3 YPG, 112th in nation). QB Hutson Mason (1,022 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has been extremely efficient with minimal turnovers and has hit on 69.2% of his passes for a low 7.0 YPA. He is not much of a runner, but has been able to get in near the end zone, scoring four times with his legs. With HB Todd Gurley suspended, HB Nick Chubb (569 rush yards, 5 TD) has stepped up in the past two games with 345 rushing yards on 68 attempts (5.1 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times. WRs Chris Conley (336 rec yards, 3 TD) and Michael Bennett (231 rec yards, 4 TD) have been the top targets through the air with Conley averaging an impressive 17.7 yards per catch. While their offense has been impressive, their defense has done just as well, allowing 20.0 PPG to their opposition (19th in FBS) behind the huge efforts of LBs Amarlo Herrera (57 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ramik Wilson (55 tackles, 5.5 TFL).


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